Queen Mother Champion Chase 2020

[Craigy14]

I went and looked back at his novice season.
That was enough to put me off.
But it's Nichols and he can improve them, and he can also talk up the wrong horse as well.

I know his novice form isn’t the best but figures of 12111 is pretty impressive. Can only beat the opposition in front of him too.

I’d say he must have improved to get that close to altior first run back? 3 length defeat first time in open company as well. Or do we think altior has regressed a bit and should have beaten them a lot easier?

[Quevega]

I know his novice form isn’t the best but figures of 12111 is pretty impressive. Can only beat the opposition in front of him too.

I’d say he must have improved to get that close to altior first run back? 3 length defeat first time in open company as well. Or do we think altior has regressed a bit and should have beaten them a lot easier?

I personally think altior is letting them get to close (or the jockey is).
Those horses in behind are getting flattered, and they were in the champion too.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Can’t wait for this race and it may be one just to watch as it has the makings to be one of the best in many many years!

But I was trying to find an angle of some value as the front 3 have all sort of been short enough in the betting. I know cps was around 8/1 start of the season and drifted after his comeback defeat but Dynamite Dollars at 25/1 could surely be a value e/w play?

I know he is a lot to make up with the front 3 but if we rewind back 12 months I don’t think anyone seen past the front 3 in the betting of the Champion Hurdle at the time. His comeback run last weekend was good given the long lay off and he barely did anything wrong in his novice season. If one of the front 3 don’t perform for whatever reason I reckon DD could pick up the pieces and run a place or better still if all 3 underperform win.

Does anyone think it’s a value bet or just nailed with the front 3?

I can't see him beating all of the 'big 3' so he's looking at a place at best imo. It works out at 2/1 to be placed which isn't appealing to me.

Like you say though, the Champion Hurdle looked certain to go to one of the favourites last season so anything can happen.

[Craigy14]

You’re probably both right and I think the same that he’ll struggle to beat all 3 of the big guns.

FM how would it be 2/1 to place out of interest? If he’s 25/1 at 1/5 of the odds it’s 5/1 to place. Or are you taking it down as he’s unlikely to beat all 3?

As Q also says it is Nicholls he knows how to win it, he is only 7 so plenty improvement could be expected.

[Faugheen_Machine]

FM how would it be 2/1 to place out of interest? If he’s 25/1 at 1/5 of the odds it’s 5/1 to place. Or are you taking it down as he’s unlikely to beat all 3?.

If you have £10 each way at 25s, you'll get £60 back if he places.

You obviously have a ticket for the win, but without the win it pays 2/1

[Quevega]

You’re probably both right and I think the same that he’ll struggle to beat all 3 of the big guns.

FM how would it be 2/1 to place out of interest? If he’s 25/1 at 1/5 of the odds it’s 5/1 to place. Or are you taking it down as he’s unlikely to beat all 3?

As Q also says it is Nicholls he knows how to win it, he is only 7 so plenty improvement could be expected.

If you have a £1 ew on at 25/1 and he places, you get £6 back, having staked £2 = effectively 2-1

edit - F-M obviously a high stakes punter

[Craigy14]

Aye I’m with you

Clicked after I wrote it just didn’t bother editing.

[Craigy14]

Was just dismissing the win part of the bet as he was unlikely to and thinking how 2/1 when he was 25/1

I’m away to walk the dog, get some fresh air

[Saxon Warrior]

If you have a £1 ew on at 25/1 and he places, you get £6 back, having staked £2 = effectively 2-1

edit - F-M obviously a high stakes punter

These real odds are the reason I don’t back each way

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

These real odds are the reason I don’t back each way

Agreed, not a hard and fast rule but tend to look at E/W @33/1 1/4 and 40/1 1/5....each to their own of course

[Kevloaf]

These real odds are the reason I don’t back each way

Agreed, not a hard and fast rule but tend to look at E/W @33/1 1/4 and 40/1 1/5....each to their own of course

Very much depends on whether that 2/1 is value doesn't it.

Silly to rule out a bet at 2/1 just on the basis it's 2/1.

2/1 might be tremendous value.




More often than not though, it's probably not

[Middle_Of_March]

I think the way to look at it is this:

Would you take 2/1 in a match race with Chacun? I personally wouldn’t.
Would you take 2/1 in a match race with Defi? I personally wouldn’t.
Would you take 2/1 in a match race with Altior? I personally wouldn’t.

[Birds Nest]

Can’t wait for this race and it may be one just to watch as it has the makings to be one of the best in many many years!

But I was trying to find an angle of some value as the front 3 have all sort of been short enough in the betting. I know cps was around 8/1 start of the season and drifted after his comeback defeat but Dynamite Dollars at 25/1 could surely be a value e/w play?

I know he is a lot to make up with the front 3 but if we rewind back 12 months I don’t think anyone seen past the front 3 in the betting of the Champion Hurdle at the time. His comeback run last weekend was good given the long lay off and he barely did anything wrong in his novice season. If one of the front 3 don’t perform for whatever reason I reckon DD could pick up the pieces and run a place or better still if all 3 underperform win.

Does anyone think it’s a value bet or just nailed with the front 3?

Would be more of an interest in the ryanair, 33s seems more sensible, nichols has mentioned the possibility.

[Craigy14]

I think the way to look at it is this:

Would you take 2/1 in a match race with Chacun? I personally wouldn’t.
Would you take 2/1 in a match race with Defi? I personally wouldn’t.
Would you take 2/1 in a match race with Altior? I personally wouldn’t.

That’s a good way to look at it indeed.

I haven’t backed much each way, only the handicaps really.

[Quevega]

That’s a good way to look at it indeed.

I haven’t backed much each way, only the handicaps really.

It is NRNB though (and if you have cash out).
So I wouldn't put you off the bet as what if one or two of the principals pull out ?
You'd then be sat pretty.
If they don't, then you'd probably be able to cash for money back. If you wanted