Queen Mother Champion Chase 2020

[Middle_Of_March]

I’m in an interesting predicament here because I want to get Defi in the book now. I thought he was brilliant.

Antepost, I’ve got Chacun at 9s and Altior in a few nice multiples when he was 4/1 (some of which are with Paisley Park and Envoi Allen) and am going to be having something small on Cilaos Emery as frankly I make him the each way value right now. With that in mind, I want to get Defi covered but I’m not mad about the price.

I don’t really like the idea of doubling him with something prior to the festival to boost the price. That’s not really my style this year (haven’t done it at any point).

Could the angle potentially be to wait until Altior pisses in at Newbury and hope in the aftermath, the market pushes Defi out to somewhere around 3/1 perhaps.

[Kevloaf]

I’m in an interesting predicament here because I want to get Defi in the book now. I thought he was brilliant.

Antepost, I’ve got Chacun at 9s and Altior in a few nice multiples when he was 4/1 (some of which are with Paisley Park and Envoi Allen) and am going to be having something small on Cilaos Emery as frankly I make him the each way value right now. With that in mind, I want to get Defi covered but I’m not mad about the price.

I don’t really like the idea of doubling him with something prior to the festival to boost the price. That’s not really my style this year (haven’t done it at any point).

Could the angle potentially be to wait until Altior pisses in at Newbury and hope in the aftermath, the market pushes Defi out to somewhere around 3/1 perhaps.

Defi won't get any bigger even if Altior runs in the ante post market.

If anything he'll shorten when more and more go NRNB.




It depends how much you like him, do you want him to be your biggest winner or not?
Do you think he's the most likely winner?

[Middle_Of_March]

Defi won't get any bigger even if Altior runs in the ante post market.

If anything he'll shorten when more and more go NRNB.




It depends how much you like him, do you want him to be your biggest winner or not?
Do you think he's the most likely winner?

I do think he’s the most likely winner. And yes on that basis, I probably do want him as my biggest winner. I have a few small free bets on Altior and those multiples, Chacun for 3 points each way at 9/1 and then I’ll have Cilaos Emery each way nearer the time.

So theoretically, I’d have to have a good few points on Defi. I really would much prefer him at a slightly bigger price. I just don’t think this race is a 2/1 the field race. Douvan, CE, CPS, Altior and Defi. That doesn’t scream 2/1 the field to me.

[Kevloaf]

I think you'll struggle to get him your biggest winner then, manipulating things so CPS becomes 'the saver' at 9/1 would require a pretty hefty lump, and if you're not convinced he's a good 2/1 shot you might just have to let him go....



What price do you think is fair for him to be fav in that race with that field?

[Lobos]

I’m in an interesting predicament here because I want to get Defi in the book now. I thought he was brilliant.

Antepost, I’ve got Chacun at 9s and Altior in a few nice multiples when he was 4/1 (some of which are with Paisley Park and Envoi Allen) and am going to be having something small on Cilaos Emery as frankly I make him the each way value right now. With that in mind, I want to get Defi covered but I’m not mad about the price.

I don’t really like the idea of doubling him with something prior to the festival to boost the price. That’s not really my style this year (haven’t done it at any point).

Could the angle potentially be to wait until Altior pisses in at Newbury and hope in the aftermath, the market pushes Defi out to somewhere around 3/1 perhaps.

Agree if Altior wins impressively at Newbury then there is no doubt in my mind that he'll go fav and Defi will be pushed out from his current 2/1. If Altior bombs then Defi can only go one way and close to evens I'd say. If it was me I'd trust Altior to come up trump's. But, you ain't me !

[Istabraq]

Plenty will change after Dublin.
If Cilaos Emery comes out and slams CPS he could easily be propelled to fav...

[jack1092]

Agree if Altior wins impressively at Newbury then there is no doubt in my mind that he'll go fav and Defi will be pushed out from his current 2/1. If Altior bombs then Defi can only go one way and close to evens I'd say. If it was me I'd trust Altior to come up trump's. But, you ain't me !

There's still the DRF 2mile race to consider. If Chacun was to bolt in for example.

I'd be surprised if they pushed defi from 2/1>3/1

[Middle_Of_March]

I think you'll struggle to get him your biggest winner then, manipulating things so CPS becomes 'the saver' at 9/1 would require a pretty hefty lump, and if you're not convinced he's a good 2/1 shot you might just have to let him go....



What price do you think is fair for him to be fav in that race with that field?

I’d imagine my each way get on CE will be 1.5 points E/W. So i would have 9 points on the race in cash as singles. Then any free bets on Altior and the multiples.

If he pushed out to 9/4 or even 5/2, I’d be tempted to get four points on him to make it impossible to finish down on the race if any of the four won. But at 2s, I am just not going to play at that.

I think I’m going to wait for Altior to win and then hope someone pushes the boat out on Defi to 5/2. If Altior loses or Defi doesn’t, I may do Defi as a double with something prior to the festival which would be the first and only time this year I am in that scenario. I could quite easily find a Friday Romford Greyhound at around 4/5 or 4/6 between February and March that will win to go with Defi.

As for the market at this stage, I completely agree that he deserves to be fav. I just think that NO horse at this stage should be 2/1 best price (not even NRNB). He could get injured, there’s a tiny (albeit really really tiny) chance he could go Ryanair and of course the opposition for the QMCC is going to be top class (best it’s been in years).

I would say 5/2 the field is fair. With Defi at the top of the pile and Altior around 3/1 as a four time festival winner that relishes the hill like no horse I've ever seen.

[Saxon Warrior]

You can’t win every race, and Defi is probably too short now to manipulate a race book to make a profit.

Defi runs on a day where there are two other hotties in Envoi Allen and Tiger Roll. Maybe put them in a treble, 6/4, 2/1, 6/4 is about 18/1.

May make a great day shared with lots of others celebrating if they all win.

I haven’t backed any of the three horses so on that day I would probably do that treble, as I am on course watching.

If any of the three lose then I may have backed the winner with the other horses I’ve backed already in singles in the Ballymore, Queen Mother and X-Country, and if that’s the case then the days a good one anyway.

[Middle_Of_March]

You can’t win every race, and Defi is probably too short now to manipulate a race book to make a profit.

Defi runs on a day where there are two other hotties in Envoi Allen and Tiger Roll. Maybe put them in a treble, 6/4, 2/1, 6/4 is about 18/1.

May make a great day shared with lots of others celebrating if they all win.

I haven’t backed any of the three horses so on that day I would probably do that treble, as I am on course watching.

If any of the three lose then I may have backed the winner with the other horses I’ve backed already in singles in the Ballymore, Queen Mother and X-Country, and if that’s the case then the days a good one anyway.

I’m on track for the week again with my mate. I will be all over the Tiger and Envoi double and realistically envoi is my best antepost bet for the week anyway so that would be a big day if he won.

I just feel like Defi was excellent yesterday and I should have him here somehow. Especially as I have three points in free bets on him from the summer for the poxy Ryanair. Feels like one that got away.

[Lobos]

I’m on track for the week again with my mate. I will be all over the Tiger and Envoi double and realistically envoi is my best antepost bet for the week anyway so that would be a big day if he won.

I just feel like Defi was excellent yesterday and I should have him here somehow. Especially as I have three points in free bets on him from the summer for the poxy Ryanair. Feels like one that got away.

I've not got Defi either as convinced he was Ryanair bound. Same APT but more of a chance he stays Ryanair regardless of what happens at Leopardstown. If they both go CC I'll wait until the day now, weigh things up and hope for some pushes or just stick with Altior at 5's.

[Kevloaf]

I’d imagine my each way get on CE will be 1.5 points E/W. So i would have 9 points on the race in cash as singles. Then any free bets on Altior and the multiples.

If he pushed out to 9/4 or even 5/2, I’d be tempted to get four points on him to make it impossible to finish down on the race if any of the four won. But at 2s, I am just not going to play at that.

I think I’m going to wait for Altior to win and then hope someone pushes the boat out on Defi to 5/2. If Altior loses or Defi doesn’t, I may do Defi as a double with something prior to the festival which would be the first and only time this year I am in that scenario. I could quite easily find a Friday Romford Greyhound at around 4/5 or 4/6 between February and March that will win to go with Defi.

As for the market at this stage, I completely agree that he deserves to be fav. I just think that NO horse at this stage should be 2/1 best price (not even NRNB). He could get injured, there’s a tiny (albeit really really tiny) chance he could go Ryanair and of course the opposition for the QMCC is going to be top class (best it’s been in years).

I would say 5/2 the field is fair. With Defi at the top of the pile and Altior around 3/1 as a four time festival winner that relishes the hill like no horse I've ever seen.

Work out your returns for each horse...

I'm doing that myself for each race in my thread and it helps see what you can do....

[Middle_Of_March]

I've not got Defi either as convinced he was Ryanair bound. Same APT but more of a chance he stays Ryanair regardless of what happens at Leopardstown. If they both go CC I'll wait until the day now, weigh things up and hope for some pushes or just stick with Altior at 5's.

Away from the punting side of it, it should be a proper race. Plenty of superstars could make it.

[Middle_Of_March]

Work out your returns for each horse...

I'm doing that myself for each race in my thread and it helps see what you can do....

I started doing this the other day as it goes on my spreadsheet.. Race by race, day by day. Only got as far as the Arkle before realising I had a uni assignment to start.

I’ll skip to the CC tomorrow (watching the NFL Conference finals atm) and see where I stand. Ta.

[delsie777]

You could end up backing Defi to get him onside then Altior scooting up in the Spirit and Defi slinking off to the Ryanair! I'd definitely wait for Altior to run before backing DDS