Queen Mother Champion Chase 2020

[Morley Street]

Read through all that and no closer to forming my opinion on the Tingle Creek.




Just looking at the market and typing as I go, bottom to top.





Ornua isn't a stupid price at 50/1 but can't be good enough unless he properly steals the race.

Dolos won't win it. Dismissing him as I Don't rate Janicka and he's not better than him.

Waiting Paitently? Ground? Forms actually not very good with the benefit of hindsight and his rating too looks inflated?

Janicka that I really, really don't like. Middle distance horse, won't be quick enough. Place lay.


Sceau Royal at 6/1 looks a fair each way price but I think I can't rule out any of the 3 higher in the betting from placing either.... so can't back that.

Politilogue I really like as a horse, good right handed (better at least) and has some decent form lines to draw on. As above though, can't be a bet to nothing each way because I like more than 2 others.

Un De Sceaux is easily the best of these on his tip top form however that tip top form can't be used expected to be reproduced with any confidence. His 2m Heavy/Soft record is stunning, and this isn't those circumstances. I love UDS though and would love him to win it. WIll defo back him NRNB for the QMCC when it's an option in the hope of a monsoon. Fair price at 9/2 too

Defi Du Seuil - Worthy fav? Perhaps... looks too short for me to back when I like the next 3 in ... I think he'll be better over further too. I've never actually been a fan of his jumping. Over hurdles he was rubbish over them to start with but had an engine. Better over fences but not electric, my gut tells me he isn't a 2 mile chaser (or his optimum isn't that).... I'd probably oppose him in a QMCC, so I'm probably going to lean AWAY from that 14/1 double that people have highlighted.




So shortlist is on of Sceau Royal, Politilogue, Un De Sceaux all Each Way for the Tingle Creek with Defi for the Ryanair....



See how much my mind changes in the next 24 hours...

UDS for me... seems enough rain around today for the ground to be OK for him... if he reproduce his Punchestown run, think he’ll be very hard to peg back and might run the finish out of the rest at the trip.

[Pendil]

Over priced based on what piece of form?
Jan 2017 beating Politilogue?
Beating Cue Card when he was over the hill at 2m4f?


The horses he beat over 2miles were Burtons Well (staying chaser) and Forest Bihan (handicapper)

Stepped up in trip since....

I can't see the value myself?

More so it was his beating of Politologue Feb 19 when 2nd to the awesome Cyrname. Interesting coming back in trip

[ComplyOrDie]

Backed Sceau Royal E/W (dirty), just because he goes really well fresh.

If he does win then that price for the festival would likely be gone, not that he interests me from a win perspective for that.

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

All over bet365s 50/1 for Ornua here. Will go close and is massively overpriced.

[Lobos]

Ornua beat Cadmium last season and also finished close 2nd to him giving weight. Cadmium ain't a bad horse and went onto win easy at Aintree beating Janika a long way. On a line through him, Ornua should not be nearly 6x Janika odds. He will well outrun his 50/1 odds

[ComplyOrDie]

All over bet365s 50/1 for Ornua here. Will go close and is massively overpriced.

I don't think Ornua is a horrific bet @ 50's tbh, I don't think he'll be good enough to win, but he is a fair E/W play.

[jack1092]

I agree, he obviously is up against it on the figures, but considering how much i like Cilaos, giving him in 11pds on heavy ground is always going to result in a beating. Ornua was considered a summer horse before last year, and clearly likes the ground on the better side. I was very surprised to see him perform so well vs DD on soft. Shouldn't have the ability to win, but 50s seems over to me too.

[darlojim]

I don't think Ornua is a horrific bet @ 50's tbh, I don't think he'll be good enough to win, but he is a fair E/W play.

Getting beat 9.5 L giving 11lbs to Cilaos Emery isnt bad form at all and he's definitely a nice EW price, following ET on this one

[archie]

It would be rash to make any assumptions on ground conditions. Potentially quite wet this afternoon/evening.

[Can't Catch Me]

Still Good to Soft, Soft in places on the Chase Course as of 10am this morning. Only had 2mm of rain overnight and very little forecast for the rest of the day now.

Looks highly unlikely to be much different for tomorrow I'd say.

[archie]

BBC, Metcheck and Met Office all say rain this afternoon. Metcheck estimates 2mm.

I do agree though that a dry night makes the soft side of good to soft the most likely going. Probably not enough to give any horse a particular advantage but unlikely to inconvenience any either.

Politologue has never been rated higher than 168. It would be a major disappointment if he were good enough tomorrow. No knowing how good DDS might be over 2 miles but UDS looks a fair price. UDS win and UDS/DDS reverse forecast if I can be bothered.

[Lobos]

BBC, Metcheck and Met Office all say rain this afternoon. Metcheck estimates 2mm.

I do agree though that a dry night makes the soft side of good to soft the most likely going. Probably not enough to give any horse a particular advantage but unlikely to inconvenience any either.

Politologue has never been rated higher than 168. It would be a major disappointment if he were good enough tomorrow. No knowing how good DDS might be over 2 miles but UDS looks a fair price. UDS win and UDS/DDS reverse forecast if I can be bothered.

How can anyone be disappointed if Politiologue wins?? He did finish 2nd in the Champion Chase didn't he ?

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

Ornua had a very tough year between April 2018 and May 2019 racing 12 times, the last 7 times in graded races. He had a mini break before the last 3 festival races but ultimately a very busy year.
Ran well last time on his 1st run back and may do better this year under a less busy schedule.
Needs to improve but he is likely to improve this season. Will get the run of the race from the front and if he gets in a good jumping rhythm and 1 or 2 of the more fancied runners make the odd mistake then he could cause a shock. Certainly not out of the question and the odds seem very fair.

If I was picking the likliest winner and not looking at the prices I would probably say Defi Du Soleil but 50/1 looks to good to leave alone.

[Lobos]

Still Good to Soft, Soft in places on the Chase Course as of 10am this morning. Only had 2mm of rain overnight and very little forecast for the rest of the day now.

Looks highly unlikely to be much different for tomorrow I'd say.

Dry and sunny tomorrow with decent temp forecast. Think it'll dry out further by race time.

[Can't Catch Me]

Must admit I thought that was a bit harsh! UDS only ever rated 171 at his peak so there isn't a great deal between them. If Politologue runs right up to his best, 168 is a pretty good benchmark in this field.

Its obviously early days for DDS over 2m but is he really going to be much better than that type of mark? Probably not for me.