Queen Mother Champion Chase 2020

[charlie]

Just the fact that they are seriously considering stepping Altior up and not training him with an unprecedented third QM in mind, for me means that they clearly feel he now needs it. I’m a big fan of the horse but thought he was vulnerable in last year’s race against some pretty ordinary 2 milers. I agree with the notion that there are only 2 races at he festival for him but surely if he wins the King George then the Gold Cup will be on the agenda. If he gets beat and drops back down to 2 miles, would you really want to go in heavy for the QM with a less than ideal prep and the gloss taken off his invincibility? In this scenario I would see him being even more vulnerable to a younger, more classy 2 miler who has had a conventional prep. Personally I am all over Chacun in this. The way connections speak of him suggests that they think he is something special and to do shat he did at Punchestown on his second chase start certainly backs that up.

I can see where you are coming from and maybe as he's gets older they feel further will suit him more, but I don't think it's a question of needs further, certainly not clear cut anyway. It sounds and looks like wanting to avoid the 'what if's' of potentially having a Gold Cup horse on their hands and never finding out whether or not he would have been good enough. We also don't know what Nicky has done with him at home. Altior may have done a piece of work over 3m and blown everyone away.

I am excited by Chacun Pour Soi. The 2m chase division needs something special and it could very well be him. What he did at Punchestown was very impressive, but I am always wary of reading Punchestown results too literally. It comes at the end of a hard season for most and whilst DDS and DDG are solid scalps to claim on paper, even more so on a second chase start, it's easy to argue that DDS is best over further, and DDG won an Arkle fortuitously through the abscence of others.

[archie]

I said it elsewhere but I'm fairly clear in my own mind that Altior has been regressing since he won his first CC. I suspect they'll duck a clash with Cyrname at Ascot (which I believe they would lose) and, in the end, also opt out of the KG.
His Cheltenham chances hinge on what opposes him but a fully firing Chacun Pour Soi would be almost certain to beat the Altior that was on show last season. However, he could likely beat the ones who raced the last time.

[ComplyOrDie]

I said it elsewhere but I'm fairly clear in my own mind that Altior has been regressing since he won his first CC. I suspect they'll duck a clash with Cyrname at Ascot (which I believe they would lose) and, in the end, also opt out of the KG.
His Cheltenham chances hinge on what opposes him but a fully firing Chacun Pour Soi would be almost certain to beat the Altior that was on show last season. However, he could likely beat the ones who raced the last time.

Archie, what vibes, if any at all, do you get regarding Chacun Pour Soi, when/if you've been to yard visit(s) and his name has cropped up?

Obviously the yard thought a fair bit of Min at the time, so wondering if there has been much of a comparison.

[archie]

Nothing so far this term but the good horses aren't even close to fast work yet.

It was well known last season (and the one before) that they thought a hell of a lot of him but he's not easy to train.

[ComplyOrDie]

Nothing so far this term but the good horses aren't even close to fast work yet.

It was well known last season (and the one before) that they thought a hell of a lot of him but he's not easy to train.

Thank you

[The King Pimm]

My concerns with Altior stepping up is how he times his finishing. Whether the competition was better last year, the ground not ideal in his big races or he was another year older but he had to dig in a lot deeper and rely on timing his acceleration at the right time and only scrapped home at the Festival. I think if he steps up the races will become more tactical for him and he may blow up into if he’s let go too early or his jumping in the last few furlongs may become even more irrational. He won’t get many opportunities to try the longer distances before Cheltenham. I think the time to step up in trip should have been at some point last season but it’s that super run of win’s he may probably spoil by trying to find out. I think they should keep him at 2 miles, they’ve more to lose than gain by stepping him up and think 4/1 is a brilliant price ante post in a market with very limited opposition once again this year by the look of it.

[charlie]

I said it elsewhere but I'm fairly clear in my own mind that Altior has been regressing since he won his first CC. I suspect they'll duck a clash with Cyrname at Ascot (which I believe they would lose) and, in the end, also opt out of the KG.
His Cheltenham chances hinge on what opposes him but a fully firing Chacun Pour Soi would be almost certain to beat the Altior that was on show last season. However, he could likely beat the ones who raced the last time.

Do you know something about Chacun Pour Soi that we don't?

[archie]

Only that that he wasn't fully firing in time for Cheltenham last season.

[Quevega]

Archie,
I think charlie was politely saying (with the highlighting of the comment in bold).
WTF makes you think that a twice raced novice over fences (very impressive looking novice) would be almost certain to beat Altior.

I would add that he could well end up beating him though. Bit of a stretch to think it's be almost certain though.

[charlie]

Only that that he wasn't fully firing in time for Cheltenham last season.

Ah I see. I thought you might have heard some inside info or something. I do like the confidence though. Don't get me wrong, I thought he was impressive at Puncehstown, I just don't think a 5L beating of Defi Du Seuil over 2m at the end of the season puts him near an Altior at 80% (which is probably what we saw in March).I take your point and you might be spot on about Altior regressing, but didn't he just do what all champions do sometimes which was win ugly? The division needs that new blood / superstar to serve it up to Altior and I do hope you are right about CPS.

[archie]

Only an opinion, quevega, but it's a twice raced novice who is already rated 167 over a regressing champion who ran to 167/168 in his major target races at the end of last season.

[charlie]

Archie,
I think charlie was politely saying (with the highlighting of the comment in bold).
WTF makes you think that a twice raced novice over fences (very impressive looking novice) would be almost certain to beat Altior.

I would add that he could well end up beating him though. Bit of a stretch to think it's be almost certain though.

Fancy being my new interpreter Quevega?

[Quevega]

I hope we see CPS continue to improve also, and it could be an exciting division for a bit.
But we've kind of been here before with Altior's challengers.
However, the sweet spot may just be about to be hit and we get a novice who is upwardly mobile vs a champion who's a bit more vulnerable.

[archie]

I think the thing that gives me most pause for thought is that 4/1 is considered a good price for Altior when his very presence in the race would appear to depend on him falling short of hopes/expectations over the longer trip.
Given the general bloodymindedness of life, any single figure price 6 months ahead of the event doesn't even get a maybe in my book and that applies to both Altior and CPS.
Absolutely though, everyone to their own.

[Middle_Of_March]

He got a pretty poor ride in the Queen mother IMO.
He ended up leading 3 or 4 out but Nico seemed pretty determined to go steady enough and it just gave the speedier finishers a better chance. If he'd made any sort of serious mistake at the last 2 then he'd have been beat. And I personally think he should have gone for him way sooner and also set a stronger pace.
Eight of them were within a couple of lengths of each other and going well jumping the second last and that was never going to suit the FAV.
He clearly has the ability to go harder and sooner and let his stamina really hurt the others up the hill.
I'd mark him up after that race rather than the opposite. Not the Jockey though.

Absolutely agree.

Couldn’t believe my ears at the back of the Club Enclosure that day when the blokes behind me were saying what a brilliant ride it was. I thought it was the complete opposite. I think Nico is one of the best jockeys in training but I think Altior got him out of jail abit there with his will to win.

With a horse with bundles of stamina at the he trip, and an ability to power up the hill, surely you go hard early on and stretch the field. Instead they took a breather coming down the hill and the pack closed on him. Couldn’t quite believe my eyes.