Nap, Lay and E/W

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Lobos I love your optimism but many of your posts seem to suggest Honeysuckle is unbeatable without a weight allowance. Sharjah was 6.5 lengths back in March, Aspire tower was 11 lengths back.

Is it possible that ferny is 6.5 lengths better than sharjah? Or Appreciate it is 11 lengths better than Aspire tower?

Fwiw I do agree that Honeysuckle is the most likely winner and I've backed her accordingly, but I think it's going to be far more competitive than last year

Obviously she’s not unbeatable even with a 7 Ib weight allowance. For one, in the main, I don’t think Henderson’s horses were firing at Cheltenham or for much of last season and if you recall if he had close his yard for a while. Assuming he’s through that I think we might see a different Epatante this year. I would say Epatante is a better jumper of hurdles than Honeysuckle, despite Honeysuckle’s improvement in that department, although I do think Honeysuckle is more talented.

[Lobos]

NAP - Honeysuckle (CH)
Lay - Jonbon (SNH)
E/W - American Mike (CB)

Reasoning behind your Jonbon lay Zach ?

[somer1]

Nap. Thyme Hill.
Lay. Tiger Roll.
E/W. American Mike.

[Zachx02]

Reasoning behind your Jonbon lay Zach ?

I'm not overly convinced by him, plus I don't think he'll be Nicky's Number 1 novice hurdler this season, from what I can draw so far, I am Maximus seems a better of the 2

[Atlantic Viking]

Nap: Outside of the obvious stuff, I think Journey With Me will prove to be special and wins whatever he turns up in, which I always thought would be the Ballymore, but it sounds more like it'll be the potato so i'll have to choose that at this point.

Lay: Monkfish, GC. I'm just not that impressed, his RSA win wasn't overly taking and I think you have to be stretching for excuses against Colreevy. I find it hard to get away from the feeling he has a race losing mistake in him in something as frenetic as the Gold Cup.

E/W: I Am Maximus, Supreme. I think the 50/1 for him is an absolute standout price for a horse that has already won on the track (on debut as a 4yo beating My Drogo), has a very decent opening RPR and a trainer who obviously loves the race and isn't afraid to put a couple of good ones in it if he has them. News on him is in short supply and there has obviously been an absence for some reason so it's a bit of a dart at this point, but at the price there's plenty to make it worth a go.

[Native River]

Nap - Honeysuckle
Lay - Tiger Roll
E/W - Letsbeclearaboutit

[Odin]

Two NAPs for me at the moment, as my 'each way' priced horse is a win nap (Journey with Me)...

NAP
Galvin (XC) 12/1 (surely the next horse on Gordy's XC/Grand National conveyor belt)
Journey with Me (AB) 25/1 (each way if you wish, but like a couple of others here, I think he just wins if he progresses like a novice can be expected to)

LAY
Thyme Hill (SH) 5/1 (I don't know why, but I just don't fancy him)

BONUS LAY
Fury Road (MH) 20/1 (Yes, you read that right - Unibet have the gelding Fury Road priced at 20/1 for the Mares Hurdle according to Oddschecker... Unless there's another horse called Fury Road that I'm unaware of, in which case the bonus lay could put me in hypothetical financial bother!)

[Saxon Warrior]

Two NAPs for me at the moment, as my 'each way' priced horse is a win nap (Journey with Me)...

NAP
Galvin (XC) 12/1 (surely the next horse on Gordy's XC/Grand National conveyor belt)
Journey with Me (AB) 25/1 (each way if you wish, but like a couple of others here, I think he just wins if he progresses like a novice can be expected to)

LAY
Thyme Hill (SH) 5/1 (I don't know why, but I just don't fancy him)

BONUS LAY
Fury Road (MH) 20/1 (Yes, you read that right - Unibet have the gelding Fury Road priced at 20/1 for the Mares Hurdle according to Oddschecker... Unless there's another horse called Fury Road that I'm unaware of, in which case the bonus lay could put me in hypothetical financial bother!)

I backed Thyme Hill to win at Aintree, but I really struggle to see him win a Stayers, given the formlines making him no better than Paisley Park is now.

Thats why he is my Lay too.

Flooring Porter has posted better RPRs than Thyme Hill’s best, including when beating Paisley Park 5 lengths.

[SharpHat]

NAP - Envoi Allen - Gold Cup - A fall and an injury is far from an ideal end to the season, but i just think back to this time last year we were all talking of him like he was the second coming. Sometime we can be guilty of having short memories and i think that is the case here, i haven't given up on him being the superstar we all hope he is, and if he is then he wont be going for the Ryanair, he'll be lining up for the gold cup and 16/1 will look very silly indeed

LAY - My Drogo - I think it will be years for GB to readdress the balance against the Irish, i cant see anything other than mullins/hdb and to a lesser extent elliot dominating the graded races again in 2022, and as such i cant have a Skelton horse at the top of the betting

EW - Aspire Tower - Stayers - There has been loads of cases for big price horses on this forum over the last few months, one i particularly like is Aspire Tower, i cant remember who made the case originally, but it was a convincing one and one i like alot

[Istabraq]

Where's opatcho , didn't he nail this last season ?

[Istabraq]

For what it's worth:

Nap - Elimay (Mares Chase)
Lay - Bob Olinger (Marsh) only because I think he'll head for the 3m race
EW - Abacadabras (Champion Hurdle)

[FinalFurlong91]

The price is tight but I’m struggling to find many horses I think will run in the Arkle at this stage. If you look at the top 30 in the betting, how many of those are likely runners?

Id love to know what Nicholls plans to do with Monmiral

Always hard for 5yos but he just looked a bit special

[charlie]

For what it's worth:

Nap - Elimay (Mares Chase)
Lay - Bob Olinger (Marsh) only because I think he'll head for the 3m race
EW - Abacadabras (Champion Hurdle)

I initially took this line of thought as well, but having heard HDB say its 2 or 2 and a half, coupled with watching all his races back, I've actually done a full u-turn on BO and think he'll end up in the Arkle (I've taken 10/1). He takes a strong hold and often races quite keenly. If, and it's a big if, he matures and takes fences in his stride then 3m could certainly be a possibility, but he looks more like a coiled spring to me than a lolloping lump. Be very interesting to see how Henry campaigns him. Drinmore would be an early indicator for the Marsh, but I have a feeling HDB will want to mop up Grade 1 chases over 2m1f at Xmas and DRF. Very exciting horse.

[That Horse]

Id love to know what Nicholls plans to do with Monmiral

Always hard for 5yos but he just looked a bit special

He's just kept on improving and getting stronger as the season has gone on and today I thought was the best he's looked. It's just hard for the novice chasers at five (years old) these days. They don't get much weight allowance in the spring and taking on the older horses in the spring is quite hard. If he had another year over hurdles it wouldn't do him any harm and then he could go novice chasing five into six. It might be nice to start him in something like the Fighting Fifth on a galloping track and then we'd know where we were going. It's something to think about over the summer - Paul Nicholls, trainer.

[Olliemagern]

I initially took this line of thought as well, but having heard HDB say its 2 or 2 and a half, coupled with watching all his races back, I've actually done a full u-turn on BO and think he'll end up in the Arkle (I've taken 10/1). He takes a strong hold and often races quite keenly. If, and it's a big if, he matures and takes fences in his stride then 3m could certainly be a possibility, but he looks more like a coiled spring to me than a lolloping lump. Be very interesting to see how Henry campaigns him. Drinmore would be an early indicator for the Marsh, but I have a feeling HDB will want to mop up Grade 1 chases over 2m1f at Xmas and DRF. Very exciting horse.

For What it’s worth do you think what Willie does with appreciate it might determine Aswel what races he goes for?