Originally posted by Kautothegreat8
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RSA Chase 2020
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Originally posted by Al Boum Photo View PostI would be quite sure Black Op is a better horse than Captain Cj.
Captain CJ has today won a grade 2, and has seconds behind Chanpagne Classic and Ronald Pump (giving weight away) and a 4 length 3rd to Carefully Selected. He’s clearly a good yardstickLast edited by Hurricane fly; 16 February 2020, 11:15 PM. Reason: Was talking a bit of rubbish about Black Oo, didn’t realise who his losses to were last season
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I think there’s a little Irish bias here.
Chasing, the 3-4 horses Minella Indo has finished in front of haven’t yet win a chase. Most of them have no rating as they’ve not completed 3 chase starts. MI has won one and lost to Laurina, whose form thereafter hasn’t exactly franked MI. To say he “has form” is a bit much. At this point, we, and even the handicapper, don’t know.
Champ, on the other hand, has won 2 of his 3 starts, beating horses into 2nd rated 145 and 152. The 2nd and 3rd in his first race have subsequently gone out and won. Whether you like him or not, there is more form there than with Minella Indo.
Personally, I don’t fancy either. I prefer Copperhead and Easy Game. Being down on Herefordshire yesterday, the South West is so wet currently, and the long rage forecast so unsettled, I can’t see it being better than soft come Wed morning. The RSA on soft with the hill will be a tough ask, and Copperhead looks a decent jumper and genuine stayer. Might run them into the ground. Easy Game to me looks to have stayed on well in his two runs and is crying out for 3 miles, but admit it is more of an unknown.
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You’re forgetting last years potato face TCH, typically unfancied but a 3m Cheltenham win (on the more demanding new course), I think Minella Indo has been nurtured through the Autum/Winter to peak in Spring.
Don’t forget many UK horses are trained for Cheltenham then it’s a field break for them, Irish horses then move onto Punchestown and may take in Aintree on route.
Personally I’m not reading the form of his races this season too literally....
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Originally posted by Istabraq View PostYou’re forgetting last years potato face TCH, typically unfancied but a 3m Cheltenham win (on the more demanding new course), I think Minella Indo has been nurtured through the Autum/Winter to peak in Spring.
Don’t forget many UK horses are trained for Cheltenham then it’s a field break for them, Irish horses then move onto Punchestown and may take in Aintree on route.
Personally I’m not reading the form of his races this season too literally....
I personally would have liked him to gave another run, but he ticks alot of boxes going into this race. We definitely be shorter than 5/1 on the day! IMO
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Originally posted by Istabraq View PostYou’re forgetting last years potato face TCH, typically unfancied but a 3m Cheltenham win (on the more demanding new course), I think Minella Indo has been nurtured through the Autum/Winter to peak in Spring.
Don’t forget many UK horses are trained for Cheltenham then it’s a field break for them, Irish horses then move onto Punchestown and may take in Aintree on route.
Personally I’m not reading the form of his races this season too literally....
Obviously it’s a plus; I was merely responding the question of “what possible form” does Champ have over Minella Indo. Clearly, as a chaser, there is more robustness to his form than Indo’s.
Both placed last year as hurdlers and both clearly have chances. I wouldn’t be surprised if either won. But Indo is a bit of an unknown as a chaser. Could be because he’s been campaigned gently, but we don’t know that and are only speculating. His bare form has less to it than Champ’s.
As I said, Copperhead for me if it turns up soft; Easy Game if GS. Feel there’s better value on those two.
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Yeah I guess we all look at form differently, I think MI has been well educated in his runs this season, strikes me as a bit of old school training so while the bare form doesn’t have a great deal of substance to me it’s done the job and prepped him well for the RSA.
Time will tell of course....
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Im in the Minella Indo camp myself. I think it was a different Laurina we saw that day compared to her runs since when clearly something has gone amiss. The bare form mightnt add up to much but like the way Minella travels and loved his cheltenham run last year over hurdles. Its all about opinions though and maybe Champ will prove his doubters wrong.
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Originally posted by TCH29 View PostIndeed. All true. I still have my doubts about Champ too! Doubts about both as i’ve Explained! Nice race though. Lots of angles an intrigue. Really hope Tizzard sticks Copperhead here."Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".
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Originally posted by kinloch brae View PostDesperate stuff from Segal. As per usual his ante-post book already looks threadbare. Will be in tears if Tizzard makes the correct call.
Still he will no doubt do his best to rewrite the book during the Festival Preview circuit. Does nobody look at his record before they book him?
But I could see why the 'not quite 4 miler' would be a very tempting option. Even for a horse that is now rated 2lb higher than the current RSA favourite.
Kicking myself for not covering the NH chase as well as my RSA bet isn't NRNB. Ah well. The joys of antepost betting.
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Gordon Elliott on Champagne Classic:
“If I had my way I would go for the National Hunt Chase with him as I think the race is made for him.”
“Battleoverdoyen (RSA Chase) is a horse I would be nervous about taking to Cheltenham as he didn’t enjoy it last year.” https://t.co/ZYzWuf6JHX
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