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Originally posted by quevega
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That's absolutely fine, I can take your opinion, we differ a fair way but that's the game, right
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Got to say, haven't been Champs biggest fan but he's a huge chance for this race and worthy favourite at the moment. Last two runs has looked very strong at the finish so I've changed my mind somewhat on him. Wish I'd have took the tens a while ago in hindsight but we can't bet with hindsight. Plenty more to come out though, shame Bright Forecast has had a setback because he looks to have a good blend of speed and stamina and plenty of potential. Interested to see how Ronald Pump gets on tooOriginally posted by Scooby91 View PostComment
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Champ has some engine alright, but he was very erratic in his jumping (obviously hampered by the loose horse early on). There’s chinks in the armour for me & still happy to take him on with a couple from Ireland.
VDF gutless as usual. Fences seem to light him up in a bad way.Comment
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Champ was very good in relation to a prospective RSA horse. Individually he showed some qualities like you've said.Originally posted by Scooby91 View Post
However, we can't be too sure what he beat in that race, as none of his opponents are what I'd call solid yardsticks.
So how he ranks is still a bit up in the air, but he looks solid still.
The cuts in price aren't really merited at this stage. But he could be a lot more dominant next time so I suppose could shorten further.Comment
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How did Champ win that race (just watched it), some engine he has! When he jumped so low over the 3rd last he looked beat but the flip side the jump at the last was superb, landed running and pulled it out on the flat. Jumping will need to improve but what he found when he looked beat was very impressive. Might have been a shade cosier had he went the right way haha!Comment
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Fantastic engine if he stands up is big and strong enough if he throws in a dodgy jump but not at the last !Originally posted by Craigy14 View Post
His price for this is absolutely ridiculous nowComment
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Again reminds me of DDS this time last year but is winning races. I think he’ll be fine come MarchComment
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I’m actually pretty tempted to add the 5/1 for Champ in the RSA after that.
His jumping obviously needs to brush up once more although the first mistake was completely down to the loose horse so no negative on his part there and he's not as bad as some seem to make out. There’s a ton of positives with Champ as to why he should be favourite but at the same time at 5/1, i’d expect a slightly more assured set of runs from what we’ve seen at the price.
One thing for sure though is that if Champ is anywhere close to the lead after the last in the RSA then i’d be very worried if I haven’t backed him. I wouldn’t have any stamina doubts myself and if he were to put it all together in the race…he could completely blow the field apart...whoever runs
I'm pretty gutted Henderson is bypassing the Kauto Star. Think he’d win that with absolute ease based on the UK opposition but can slightly understand Henderson’s reluctance to go 3 miles until the Festival. Would have been very happy sitting on Champ at 40/1 but no luck there. I’ve not been able to second guess Henderson and his horses this year (Santini Ladbroke / Champ Kempton)
Henderson is one of the worst for lamenting praise on his horses so it’s 100% something to be taken with a pinch of salt but it’s ever so slightly telling that whenever Henderson talks about how he should have ran Champ in the AB (and it comes up a lot) he “would" have won, no “may” or “could”s about it. There's obviously no real substance there (other than arguably a line through his own horse Dickie Diver) but the sheer lack of doubt is something to note (if not to then dismiss!)
Putting my Kempton double bet aside…i’m glad we’ll see him at Cheltenham next up. It’ll be good to see him jump the fences round there which can often catch a horse out. The fences there will be the only thing that will stop him winning there.
It’s just a case of thinking what price he’ll be come the festival once we have had all the Irish staying chases put down their markers. I have no doubt they’ll be plenty trying to take him on.
What price do we all think Champ will be on the week / morning of the race?Last edited by jono; 29 November 2019, 05:31 PM.Comment
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Probably get at least 5/2 imo.Originally posted by jono View Post
Sounds like it's the Dipper than straight to Cheltenham. Can't see him being any shorter than 5/2 on morning of the race.Comment
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Yeah i'd say the same. He's on the cusp of being a price where your better off just waiting until March. May well be a horse who has some enhanced prices during the preview nights too.Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
Still think the Irish will throw down some strong opposition, certainly far more than the rest of the UK but i'd absolutely like him onboard though after the evidence of today. Maybe one to try and roll onto.
Another positive for me would be having Geraghty on his back. He gets plenty of stick and I'm no longer his biggest fan compared to his days riding reguarly for Henderson but he's the kind of horse and ride which shows Geraghty in the best light come the big dayComment
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jono - 4/1 best price now with SB. I am not on at all.Comment
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For me there are a lot of similarities (not necessarily running style) with Denman in his novice season. Both started having been a beaten hotpot in the Ballymore and both started fencing fairly low key, making novice mistakes but improving for distance and always showing that there was a big engine under the bonnet. Denman was punted heavily for the RSA after winning his prep and started at 6/5. I could see something similar.Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View PostComment
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I have Champ in lots of lines but believe Antepost only way to back him. No value now. He will be as overbet as most of his namers Cheltenham mounts were come March. Most people have made their minds up about BJG years ago. If you look at the race and where Champ was positioned from just before last I don’t think many others would have won on that horse today. Barry took a chance when it might have been easier to ease the drive. Still hungry 🙈Comment
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I thought it was clear as day Barry pulling the reigns to the right and the horse responded.
Champ was going to just run off to the left without Barry getting involved.
I was reluctant to back Champ at 10/1, the price he is now isn't one I'd back this far out. Maybe before the Dipper.
For me it's now impossible to see how he doesn't have a huge say in the race... the only other British horse I like in the race is Sam Spinner and Champ would just wallop him over any distance in any race
Envoi Allen / Champ all rolling onto Tiger Roll.... what a Wednesday
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