Mares Novice Hurdle 2020

[Lobos]

B365 have cut Gypsy Island into 6/1 from 8/1.

I really can't get that excited about her. I must be missing something.

[Saxon Warrior]

We all have those horses Lobos, it’s possible to get carried with other people’s euphoria for a horse. Always best to go with you own view.

[Quevega]

I really can't get that excited about her. I must be missing something.

Have you watched her last couple ?

[charlie]

I really can't get that excited about her. I must be missing something.

Each their own. Different horses excite different people. If we all found the same horses exciting life would be very boring! I do enjoy it though when a horse turns you. We all know who yours is #honeysuckle

I find it impossible not to be excited by her though. She lost nothing in defeat on her hurdling debut and I actually think there are far more positives to be drawn than negatives. The way she attacked her hurdles particularly towards the end of the race when making up 10 lengths really switching through the gears shows she can jump well and has a sound technique. She's taken off like a turbo jet out of O'Connor's hands at Fairyhouse and if there was any doubt in what she's left in behind, she then did exactly the same at Punchestown against a load of subsequent winners. She cost loads of money, shes a JP horse, sound judges of the game are giving her really strong shouts (like Ruby when he could have picked any one from the Mullins stable). You then have strong market support in the absence of seeing her or any significant news/stable update, and I just think that all of makes her collectively quite exciting, but I'll be waiting to see her on the track before I get too carried away.

[Lobos]

Each their own. Different horses excite different people. If we all found the same horses exciting life would be very boring! I do enjoy it though when a horse turns you. We all know who yours is #honeysuckle

I find it impossible not to be excited by her though. She lost nothing in defeat on her hurdling debut and I actually think there are far more positives to be drawn than negatives. The way she attacked her hurdles particularly towards the end of the race when making up 10 lengths really switching through the gears shows she can jump well and has a sound technique. She's taken off like a turbo jet out of O'Connor's hands at Fairyhouse and if there was any doubt in what she's left in behind, she then did exactly the same at Punchestown against a load of subsequent winners. She cost loads of money, shes a JP horse, sound judges of the game are giving her really strong shouts (like Ruby when he could have picked any one from the Mullins stable). You then have strong market support in the absence of seeing her or any significant news/stable update, and I just think that all of makes her collectively quite exciting, but I'll be waiting to see her on the track before I get too carried away.

Great write up. You are sucking me in. I suppose I just look at this race and find myself waiting for the next Mullins good thing in it. Need to branch out a bit!

[charlie]

Great write up. You are sucking me in. I suppose I just look at this race and find myself waiting for the next Mullins good thing in it. Need to branch out a bit!

He's gonna lose in it eventually!

[jack1092]

That's true Charlie. I suppose it's clear GI is the current form pick here, however, the thing that puts me off is i just suspect she could just be a very good bumper mare. Chance she's been beating mares from ptps wanting hurdles, that'll probably improve for them- a horse like Minella Melody for example, point winner was running in bumpers, highly probable she'll improve for obstacles.. Then combined with the fact the best trainer of a mare hasn't unleashed his novice mares yet i think she's one i'd avoid at the prices quoted. There's a lot of water to go under the bridge yet. @ Fancy prices i probably should've acted to give myself a nice position, but not now.
Also, i think Colreevy whom she beat easily, clearly improved a massive amount for her first run in 347 days. Gypsy had a run on her that day. I wouldn't have her @ double GI's price at all. The issue i had is i think both are too short, wouldn't be surprised if Colreevy went against the boys at some stage like Relegate + Augusta Kate did after having races vs boys in a bumper.

[SeanRock]

Colreevy is entered up in a 2m maiden at Cork on Sunday.

[charlie]

That's true Charlie. I suppose it's clear GI is the current form pick here, however, the thing that puts me off is i just suspect she could just be a very good bumper mare. Chance she's been beating mares from ptps wanting hurdles, that'll probably improve for them- a horse like Minella Melody for example, point winner was running in bumpers, highly probable she'll improve for obstacles.. Then combined with the fact the best trainer of a mare hasn't unleashed his novice mares yet i think she's one i'd avoid at the prices quoted. There's a lot of water to go under the bridge yet. @ Fancy prices i probably should've acted to give myself a nice position, but not now.
Also, i think Colreevy whom she beat easily, clearly improved a massive amount for her first run in 347 days. Gypsy had a run on her that day. I wouldn't have her @ double GI's price at all. The issue i had is i think both are too short, wouldn't be surprised if Colreevy went against the boys at some stage like Relegate + Augusta Kate did after having races vs boys in a bumper.

I completely understand anyone's reservations re GI particularly at that price. History has taught us very few good bumper mares translate that success over hurdles. Look at Relegate, great in bumpers but terrible jumper! The first reservation anyone would have with any bumper horse going over obstacles is obviously their ability to jump well. Gypsy Island has already answered that question and some. When she was asked to race and pick up the tempo her hurdling improved and she jumped low and fast - exactly what you want to see from a horse starting out over hurdles. After that it's all guesswork until we see her. You are right to suspect she may just be a very good bumper mare and her price is very short and could look stupidly short after her debut. Who know's. Personally, I can't get past the visual impression she gave me last year. I'll caveat what I'm about to say by emphasising the fastest way to the ante post cheltenham poor house is to blindly follow hype or whats said on preview circuits, I'm just finding it hard to shake multiple people deeply connected to stables with incredible strength and depth saying she is a complete weapon and their one to follow.

[Quevega]

If people haven't got the price.
There is no need to try and crab the form.
Just say she isn't value at that price, and therefore not a betting proposition at the moment.
The form is rock solid, no matter how you spin it.
And I fail to see how anyone could watch (her last 2 runs) in particular, and not think she's potentially top class.
The one blot, was jockey error, giving what turned out to be a horse of reasonable ability, a soft, big lead in a steadily run race. She was therefore left with far too much to do in a race where they had clearly said to educate her.

[Humble Pie]

Each their own. Different horses excite different people. If we all found the same horses exciting life would be very boring! I do enjoy it though when a horse turns you. We all know who yours is #honeysuckle

I find it impossible not to be excited by her though. She lost nothing in defeat on her hurdling debut and I actually think there are far more positives to be drawn than negatives. The way she attacked her hurdles particularly towards the end of the race when making up 10 lengths really switching through the gears shows she can jump well and has a sound technique. She's taken off like a turbo jet out of O'Connor's hands at Fairyhouse and if there was any doubt in what she's left in behind, she then did exactly the same at Punchestown against a load of subsequent winners. She cost loads of money, shes a JP horse, sound judges of the game are giving her really strong shouts (like Ruby when he could have picked any one from the Mullins stable). You then have strong market support in the absence of seeing her or any significant news/stable update, and I just think that all of makes her collectively quite exciting, but I'll be waiting to see her on the track before I get too carried away.

Can’t pick any bones in that
I’m happy with 16&12/1
You’ve even got Lobos “sucking!” -))))

[jack1092]

If people haven't got the price.
There is no need to try and crab the form.
Just say she isn't value at that price, and therefore not a betting proposition at the moment.
The form is rock solid, no matter how you spin it.
And I fail to see how anyone could watch (her last 2 runs) in particular, and not think she's potentially top class.
The one blot, was jockey error, giving what turned out to be a horse of reasonable ability, a soft, big lead in a steadily run race. She was therefore left with far too much to do in a race where they had clearly said to educate her.

Quevega, that’s your view.

I’ll spin it how I want too, and personally I don’t see any reason not too question the price.

[Scooby91]

If people haven't got the price.
There is no need to try and crab the form.
Just say she isn't value at that price, and therefore not a betting proposition at the moment.
The form is rock solid, no matter how you spin it.
And I fail to see how anyone could watch (her last 2 runs) in particular, and not think she's potentially top class.
The one blot, was jockey error, giving what turned out to be a horse of reasonable ability, a soft, big lead in a steadily run race. She was therefore left with far too much to do in a race where they had clearly said to educate her.

Its bumper form, against her own sex.
When was the last bumper horse to go anywhere near in the mares novice?
Barrington court ?
Getaway katie mai?

If she ran in the same race colreevy did, brilliant. But she diddnt. Yukon lil finished infront of colreevy in the race gypsy ireland won. it was clearly a pipe opener after a year off. Youd be foolish to take that literally.

Minella melody and daylight Katie who both had previous ptp form, have won in easy races 1st time up against horses that would be nothing but tailed off in the mares nov, to show GI beat them In a bumper. Great stuff. It shows they're alive and can jump (which we already knew)

Do you think, if she ran last year even though she was beaten over hurdles? She'd have won it easily?

As you've practically last years winner in there who was on hurdles debut. Who quite possibly isn't even 1st string.

[Quevega]

2 refugees stood on a beach.
The boat sails off in the distance.
One turns to the other and says.
“Looks a shit boat anyway. I hope it sinks”
.

[Quevega]

She’s not bad for a 33-1 or 25-1 shot is all, or bigger for one or two.