Mares Novice Hurdle 2020

[billymag]

The Triumph is a G1 worth about £20k more to the winner than the G2 Mares Novice.

JP's last comparable filly was Apple's Shakira and she went for the Triumph. It will, of course, depend on what happens in the next few months but as it stands it would be about 10/1 FF turning up here.

Connections money was down early on her for this so that might of influenced that decision.

[Lobos]

The Triumph is a G1 worth about £20k more to the winner than the G2 Mares Novice.

JP's last comparable filly was Apple's Shakira and she went for the Triumph. It will, of course, depend on what happens in the next few months but as it stands it would be about 10/1 FF turning up here.

Is she owned by JP ? I'll take some of that 10/1 please ! ��

[JackieMoon33]

Not a hope. Apple's Jade simply isn't the same horse at Cheltenham.

Ok I’ve made this a bit harder than I wanted.

Still hypothetically. IF Apples Jade acted as well at Cheltenham as anywhere else; would a juvenile Apples Jade beat Laurina in the Mares Novices Hurdle.

[Lobos]

Ok I’ve made this a bit harder than I wanted.

Still hypothetically. IF Apples Jade acted as well at Cheltenham as anywhere else; would a juvenile Apples Jade beat Laurina in the Mares Novices Hurdle.

No, not on Laurina's demolition performance. Nothing would have beaten her that day. She was sensational.

[archie]

Previous runnings of this race:

2016 - 2 out of 16 runners were 4yos. Finished 14th and PU.
2017 - 1 out of 16 runners was a 4yo. Finished 9th.
2018 - No 4yo out of 22 runners.
2019 - No 4yo out of 22 runners.

[Lobos]

Previous runnings of this race:

2016 - 2 out of 16 runners were 4yos. Finished 14th and PU.
2017 - 1 out of 16 runners was a 4yo. Finished 9th.
2018 - No 4yo out of 22 runners.
2019 - No 4yo out of 22 runners.

How many of those 4yo though had won twice as a 3yo including by 18 lengths on their hurdling debut and by 9 lengths in a £75000 listed race in France ?

[JackieMoon33]

If the best juvenile fillies would not beat the best novice Mares (case above; Apples versus Laurina), why would they go up against her elders? This is also based on the assumption FF is going to turn out that good, which is a long way from being proven as not many other horses have run yet, let alone the main pretenders.

I’d want cash out if I was taking that punt for sure.

[Lobos]

If the best juvenile fillies would not beat the best novice Mares (case above; Apples versus Laurina), why would they go up against her elders? This is also based on the assumption FF is going to turn out that good, which is a long way from being proven as not many other horses have run yet, let alone the main pretenders.

I’d want cash out if I was taking that punt for sure.

Think you need to factor in FF is an experienced flat horse as well so very different from the normal novice Mares runners. Plus, her chances of winning the Triumph are hardly any better based on the stats of mares in that race, last one to win 19 years ago. Could the Fred Winter be an option?

[JackieMoon33]

Think you need to factor in FF is an experienced flat horse as well so very different from the normal novice Mares runners. Plus, her chances of winning the Triumph are hardly any better based on the stats of mares in that race, last one to win 19 years ago. Could the Fred Winter be an option?

If she’s as good as you rate her then she’ll be too good for the Fred Winter. I’ll have to keep an eye on that Auteuil form over the coming weeks and months. I assume she’ll probably run soonish back in Ireland too.

[Lobos]

If she’s as good as you rate her then she’ll be too good for the Fred Winter. I’ll have to keep an eye on that Auteuil form over the coming weeks and months. I assume she’ll probably run soonish back in Ireland too.

Think they were looking at a big race in the US later this year but that could have changed now that she has been sold to Munir.

[JackieMoon33]

https://twitter.com/mufc_fan_saf/status/1179084655108247552?s=21

Could be back to Auteuil

[Lobos]

https://twitter.com/mufc_fan_saf/sta...108247552?s=21

Could be back to Auteuil

Excellent spot. They are certainly aiming high with her.

[Lobos]

Wouldn't say that's strictly true Lobos. It was visually impressive + all that, but Mullin's does have a habit of unearthing very good mares that start off in the MN.

The second has been beat since + hasn't won a race.

Just looked up FF Auteuil race and the 5th home came out next time and won a 75000 euro grade 3 at the same course. The horse that finished 2nd to FF in Ireland came out and won a decent race next time. The form is beginning to look hot. Wish I could get a TWAR price for the fez.

[Saxon Warrior]

Just looked up FF Auteuil race and the 5th home came out next time and won a 75000 euro grade 3 at the same course. The horse that finished 2nd to FF in Ireland came out and won a decent race next time. The form is beginning to look hot. Wish I could get a TWAR price for the fez.

Fujimoto Flyer is 20/1 with WH to Win Any Race at the Festival. Price Boost would increase that to 22/1.

[The King Pimm]

Cheers HF, I just got 22/1, she must have been added very recently as I didn’t see her last week when I looked