Mares Novice Hurdle 2020

[ComplyOrDie]

Just a couple of other things about Shewearsitwell, she's not run on anything resembling softer ground yet, and all her racing has been done on flat or sharp enough tracks. Her breeding suggests she should have no stamina concerns but clearly she is a quick animal given her performances on them easier going tracks and on the better ground, so she may just do too much too soon on a stiffer track and against better opposition.

I have enough doubts myself.

[Lobos]

I'm comparing the two because Willie said almost exactly the same things about Airlie as he did yesterday. By coincidence, she also won the two races that are being projected for SWIW before running down the field in the Mares Novice so I think it's not an unreasonable comparison.

Which is great news for Shewearsitwell supporter's. AB went the same route and started a well backed 2nd fav at the Fez but unfortunately didn't act/perform on the course .

[Lobos]

Shewearsitwell

Willie Mullins has entered 2 Mares in the Royal Bond in the last 10 years, and done very well with them.
They have a 7lb weight advantage over the geldings.

Airlie Beach won the race in 2016, by 6&1/2 lengths, at 4/1, with an RPR of 141.
That was 1lb lower than her form coming into the race (RPR 142).

Zuzka at 12/1 was 3rd in 2012, btn 2&1/2 lengths by Jezki, with Champagne Fever splitting them. (form good enough for them to go on to finish 1st and 3rd in the Supreme 3 months later)
She posted an RPR of 142 for the race (6lb above her prior rating of 136).

WPM doesn’t waste bullets with his Mares in the Royal Bond.

Shewearsitwell already has a better rating than either of those posted before the Royal Bond or to win/place in that Grade 1, with a current RPR of 148.

With a 7lb allowance, that means if she repeated the 148 in the Royal Bond, then any gelding would need to post 156 to beat her.

Only one gelding in 10 years has done that, in the race, Envoi Allen posted 156, so about a length better than Shewearsitwell, when beating Abacadabras last year.

Every other Royal Bond in the decade recorded winners rated RPR 141 to 151.

Willie could take the Airlie Beach route, with the Down Royal Grade 3 in 4 weeks, and then the Royal Bond 4 weeks after that.

A this point, she wouldn’t have to improve anything at all to win the Royal Bond, or the Mares Novice Hurdle.

An added bonus is that she is by Shirocco out of an Old Vic mare, the same as Annie Power.

As well as taking 10/1 post race,
I’m going to start smaller stakes doubles on her with other Festival horses, as if she arrives in the MNH fit and well she could easily be the top-rated horse in the race, as the MNH has proved to generally be a race lacking any depth at all in its 6 years, on ratings (though good Mares develop from it after their Novice year, of course, like Epatante, Verdana Blue etc, that weren’t top novices).

I couldn't add a thing to that. What he said !! I'll go in again but it'll have to wait until pension payment day !!

[Saxon Warrior]

I would be happy to add another WPM mare when they reveal themselves too, of course.

But a Shirocco mare out of Old Vic doesn’t sound like a rattling fast ground pedigree to me.
Shirocco’s progeny have proven to have a better win ratio on Heavy or Soft than any other ground.

Old Vic had extremely good form on soft ground, and his horses prefer softer ground than any other.

Annie Power (Shirocco, damsire Old Vic) won all of her 11 races on soft or heavy ground, and was only beaten once, on the only time she encounters good ground.

SWIW could improve for soft, based on her pedigree.

[Quevega]

She looks like Annie

[Lobos]

I'll probably back Willie's other 5 as well. As we know he's the only one allowed to win the race. It's actually written in the conditions.

[Run4Home]

Shewearsitwell

Willie Mullins has entered 2 Mares in the Royal Bond in the last 10 years, and done very well with them.
They have a 7lb weight advantage over the geldings.

Airlie Beach won the race in 2016, by 6&1/2 lengths, at 4/1, with an RPR of 141.
That was 1lb lower than her form coming into the race (RPR 142).

Zuzka at 12/1 was 3rd in 2012, btn 2&1/2 lengths by Jezki, with Champagne Fever splitting them. (form good enough for them to go on to finish 1st and 3rd in the Supreme 3 months later)
She posted an RPR of 142 for the race (6lb above her prior rating of 136).

WPM doesn’t waste bullets with his Mares in the Royal Bond.

Shewearsitwell already has a better rating than either of those posted before the Royal Bond or to win/place in that Grade 1, with a current RPR of 148.

With a 7lb allowance, that means if she repeated the 148 in the Royal Bond, then any gelding would need to post 156 to beat her.

Only one gelding in 10 years has done that, in the race, Envoi Allen posted 156, so about a length better than Shewearsitwell, when beating Abacadabras last year.

Every other Royal Bond in the decade recorded winners rated RPR 141 to 151.

Willie could take the Airlie Beach route, with the Down Royal Grade 3 in 4 weeks, and then the Royal Bond 4 weeks after that.

A this point, she wouldn’t have to improve anything at all to win the Royal Bond, or the Mares Novice Hurdle.

An added bonus is that she is by Shirocco out of an Old Vic mare, the same as Annie Power.

As well as taking 10/1 post race,
I’m going to start smaller stakes doubles on her with other Festival horses, as if she arrives in the MNH fit and well she could easily be the top-rated horse in the race, as the MNH has proved to generally be a race lacking any depth at all in its 6 years, on ratings (though good Mares develop from it after their Novice year, of course, like Epatante, Verdana Blue etc, that weren’t top novices).

Really good analysis, spot on!!

Each mare needs to be taken on their own merits rather than compared to ones which have gone before because of small similarities or ones which 'may' come out. Couldn't have been more impressive yesterday & the RPR backs that up.
If this was some French mare which a cost a few quid rather than a leased mare I think the reaction to SWIW performance may be different.

[kinloch brae]

If we are talking about bad value I would suggest those that head up the likes of the Supreme (a much more competitive race) without having reappeared or jumped a hurdle would be well ahead of this one.

[Lobos]

If we are talking about bad value I would suggest those that head up the likes of the Supreme (a much more competitive race) without having reappeared or jumped a hurdle would be well ahead of this one.

Absolutely, plus we can be pretty certain She will be heading to the Mares Novice whereas the end target cannot be certain for any that head the betting for the other Novice races

[Outlaw]

Good detailed analysis Saxon be very interesting if running to mid 140 in receipt of weight

[Kevloaf]

As a leased club mare, it's unlikely that Shewearsitwell was seen as a G1 mare a few months ago. Her career has had a similar trajectory to Airlie Beach and she will surely continue to give them a lot of fun, probably in races that Airlie won. Based on that experience, her current price is poor value.

Patrick Mullins compared Shewearsitwell to Airlie Beach in this preview.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LN1O9pJjO50&feature=youtu.be

Around 7 mins 30.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Just wait for something from France to win round Tramore or somewhere in February then bolt up in this

[Saxon Warrior]

Good detailed analysis Saxon be very interesting if running to mid 140 in receipt of weight

I think that the comments from the trainer were, interesting:

“It was a good performance and she's improving all the time. She's a sharp little jumper and that was a huge benefit to her in this contest, stepping up in grade. At least I know now that she's competitive over the minimum trip, so I wouldn't be afraid to keep her at that trip. I'll have a word with Paul though because he said she was probably going as fast as she was able to, so when the better hurdlers come out it might be difficult. So far, so good. We're very happy for Closutton Racing Club as it's their first graded winner. It's good to have a nice mare for them. We'll try and keep her to mares’ company and she'll have to go up in grade now. The dream would be to be good enough to run in the Royal Bond. She's good enough to run in it now anyway and that will be in the back of our minds. We might try and find something between now and then for her. Timewise Down Royal could be a possibility for her.”

[archie]

Patrick Mullins compared Shewearsitwell to Airlie Beach in this preview.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LN1O9pJjO50&feature=youtu.be

Around 7 mins 30.

Great minds and all that..

[kinloch brae]

Well that's it then.

How many trainers will come out now and say well that's the Mare's Hurdle in the bag? I suspect none.

As ever I think this is about people who have 'missed the boat' trying to convince themselves they haven't 'missed the boat'. Probably happens on all threads.