Tbf Hugh put me on it! Really starting to sweat with HDB tonget his 3rd winner! Was counting my money after day one!
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Mares Novice Hurdle 2020
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Interested to hear peoples views on this race, do we think this years renewal was very average given last years second annihilated them with ease, or do people think concertista being a year older than dolcita and having a lot more experience was a big factor? Main reasoning behind this question is the big disparity in odds between them for next years mares with dolcita available at 50/1. Do many think dolcita could improve past concertista next season?
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Originally posted by riccirich View PostInterested to hear peoples views on this race, do we think this years renewal was very average given last years second annihilated them with ease, or do people think concertista being a year older than dolcita and having a lot more experience was a big factor? Main reasoning behind this question is the big disparity in odds between them for next years mares with dolcita available at 50/1. Do many think dolcita could improve past concertista next season?
If it was the mares trip, I could see them finishing closer together for sure, over 2 miles, probably not. As you've asked about the mares price I'd say it was a fair bit too much distance between the pair for me, and I'd be backing Dolcita at the prices.
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Last year, on her stable debut Concertista was beaten in a photo in this race. She rocked up 12 months later and has won it like she's the best novice hurdler in training. Embarrassing that D.Jacob gave her some encouragement whilst 10 lengths clear halfway up the run in.
She hadn't managed to win a race until that point, beaten by Black Tears who had already ran well at this years festival (albeit in a handicap) was decent-ish, but that performance looks to have come from nowhere. She's up to 147 from it (so 154 if she ran against the fellas) which isn't getting her at the top table in terms of the official rating she has and to be honest I don't know how to rate her performance.
Dolcita got second, backing up the incredibly dull system of backing Willie Mullins horses blindly in this race. Absolutely no reason to stop doing that and trying to spot which horses they'll be as early as possible, as despite the horse that'd beaten them both Minella Melody running, the form was quite emphatically turned around when it mattered most.
I feel like this was a weak division and weak race. None of the mares had beaten anything of note against the boys and as such, until I see the form tested I'll treat it with caution. I don't think Concertista would have been involved with Shishkin and Abacadabras, nor do I think she'd have put Envoi Allen away, so I'm going to ignore her for next season for now.
Where she slots into the Mares programme doesn't excite me too much either, I don't think she's going to be better than Benie Des Dieux and I don't think time will show her to be the best of Willie's mares that he's had win the race.
All that said, she's had two festival runs and beat beaten in a photo and then won by a billion miles so she'll warrent a certain amount of respect, however, shadow can be cast over the merit and strength of the races she's competed in. County Hurdle would interest me the most.... I don't think she'll be good enough for a Champion Hurdle and she's too short for the Mares Hurdle for me to consider her seriously for right now. Mullins specifically said he thinks she wants more than 2 miles pre race, but this performance may have altered that view.
Probably goes without saying, but as I Don't really fancy the winner going forward, I don't fancy anything in behind. If some of the beaten horses start franking the form I'll upgrade the whole lot, but not until then.
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostLast year, on her stable debut Concertista was beaten in a photo in this race. She rocked up 12 months later and has won it like she's the best novice hurdler in training. Embarrassing that D.Jacob gave her some encouragement whilst 10 lengths clear halfway up the run in.
She hadn't managed to win a race until that point, beaten by Black Tears who had already ran well at this years festival (albeit in a handicap) was decent-ish, but that performance looks to have come from nowhere. She's up to 147 from it (so 154 if she ran against the fellas) which isn't getting her at the top table in terms of the official rating she has and to be honest I don't know how to rate her performance.
Dolcita got second, backing up the incredibly dull system of backing Willie Mullins horses blindly in this race. Absolutely no reason to stop doing that and trying to spot which horses they'll be as early as possible, as despite the horse that'd beaten them both Minella Melody running, the form was quite emphatically turned around when it mattered most.
I feel like this was a weak division and weak race. None of the mares had beaten anything of note against the boys and as such, until I see the form tested I'll treat it with caution. I don't think Concertista would have been involved with Shishkin and Abacadabras, nor do I think she'd have put Envoi Allen away, so I'm going to ignore her for next season for now.
Where she slots into the Mares programme doesn't excite me too much either, I don't think she's going to be better than Benie Des Dieux and I don't think time will show her to be the best of Willie's mares that he's had win the race.
All that said, she's had two festival runs and beat beaten in a photo and then won by a billion miles so she'll warrent a certain amount of respect, however, shadow can be cast over the merit and strength of the races she's competed in. County Hurdle would interest me the most.... I don't think she'll be good enough for a Champion Hurdle and she's too short for the Mares Hurdle for me to consider her seriously for right now. Mullins specifically said he thinks she wants more than 2 miles pre race, but this performance may have altered that view.
Probably goes without saying, but as I Don't really fancy the winner going forward, I don't fancy anything in behind. If some of the beaten horses start franking the form I'll upgrade the whole lot, but not until then.
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Bon Retour who was very impressive in Galway after her run , could she possibly go down this route .
What Willie said After the race at Galway Wed, 29th Jul, 2020
“ She seemed to be following Danny's (Mullins, on Summer Hill) horse by jumping to her left but she has never shown done that at home and I schooled her myself this morning and she was fine. We were happy enough with her French mark of 121 and it was great to win from it and hopefully she will improve and go forward again. She is with us a few months and she will jump a fence as well. I wouldn't imagine easier ground would be an issue for her and she wouldn't have run on quick ground.” W P Mullins
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I've had a small bet on Carrigeen Lotus for this race.
Trained by R.H.Lalor , ( no. i know he isn't willie mullins ! ).
Apparently a half sister ??, to Minella Indo , at 66-1 , I'll take my chance.
came 3rd behind Darling daughter ( gord elliott ) at Leopardstown in feb.
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