Arkle 2020

[Kevloaf]

Melon is a bit of a stupid price at 25/1 NRNB in the Arkle, based on his Champion Hurdle form alone that's too big.

No risk IMO

[SizingJohn]

I had him in an earlier bet at 20/1 and the cash out and backing it at 25/1 actually gives me a tiny bit more if he comes in!

[Kevloaf]

I had him in an earlier bet at 20/1 and the cash out and backing it at 25/1 actually gives me a tiny bit more if he comes in!

Yeah, sensible enough move.

I don't think he'll run to be honest, but I do know he wouldn't be 25/1!


and go here and let me know what picture you want SJ (Not got anyone with the Potts' colours yet I don't think!) http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...equests/page26

[SizingJohn]

Have a feeling he won't be here either but at least I have the cover now. And like you said no chance he goes off at 25/1.

In saying that though, I seem to remember him being a good price in the morning of the churdle and being backed off the boards just before the off a couple of years ago

[ComplyOrDie]

Melon is a bit of a stupid price at 25/1 NRNB in the Arkle, based on his Champion Hurdle form alone that's too big.

No risk IMO

Warming to this after discussions with Jack and Charlie earlier today, having gone over his profile a little more tonight.

[Faugheen_Machine]

How many do we see lining up this year? A quick skim through the betting and it looks like it'll be double figures, potentially 12+.

As a result, it will be an absolute burn up with no hiding place on the front end, and I'd worry about the front runners getting home up the hill.

[Hardy Eustace]

Fakir, Notebook, Cashback, Global Citizen, put the kettle on - all front runners this will suit a hold up horse. The race is made for brewinupastorm for me - my only concern is a lack of chase expeirence. 2 starts when they will go as fast as they do will put his jumping under pressure - i Just hope Olly has him well schooled. The race could be run to suit Al Dancer as well but I won't get there again!!

[Faugheen_Machine]

Fakir, Notebook, Cashback, Global Citizen, put the kettle on - all front runners this will suit a hold up horse. The race is made for brewinupastorm for me - my only concern is a lack of chase expeirence. 2 starts when they will go as fast as they do will put his jumping under pressure - i Just hope Olly has him well schooled. The race could be run to suit Al Dancer as well but I won't get there again!!

I think we are on the same page with those 2, HE.

[darlojim]

Fakir, Notebook, Cashback, Global Citizen, put the kettle on - all front runners this will suit a hold up horse. The race is made for brewinupastorm for me - my only concern is a lack of chase expeirence. 2 starts when they will go as fast as they do will put his jumping under pressure - i Just hope Olly has him well schooled. The race could be run to suit Al Dancer as well but I won't get there again!!

Just because there are a lot of front runners in the race doesnt necessarily mean it will suit a hold up horse, this only comes into it if they take eachother on and go too fast like footpads arkle. In the irish arkle the last day cash back and notebook were front runners yet that didnt mean a hold up horse would win, its only if the jockeys aboard make a mistake pace wise. Notebook happy enough to take a lead from cash back or fakir anyway (if fakir even turns up in this)

[ComplyOrDie]

Just because there are a lot of front runners in the race doesnt necessarily mean it will suit a hold up horse, this only comes into it if they take eachother on and go too fast like footpads arkle. In the irish arkle the last day cash back and notebook were front runners yet that didnt mean a hold up horse would win, its only if the jockeys aboard make a mistake pace wise. Notebook happy enough to take a lead from cash back or fakir anyway (if fakir even turns up in this)

Was going to suggest Notebook sitting in behind the leaders not necessarily going for it hammer and tong up front, don't think he needs too tbh.

The other are very likely to want to lead and could cut their own throats in doing so, so can see why the 'hold up horse' would look the backable one at this stage. I think Brewin'upastorm has a fair shout on this basis.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Will Melon even run here?

[charlie]

Will Melon even run here?

Genuinely hard to say. They must be tempted by the Champion Hurdle. Run LTO looked too bad to be true. As others have said, 25/1 NRNB for this looks mustard cause if he lines up that's a cracking each way price for a horse that's 222 at Cheltenham festivals

[Anay Turge]

Randomly given a free bet by hills for completing a survey. Only for £10, but it’s still a nice unexpected gesture. Tempted by Annamix, figured it’s worthy of a free bet, however do we actually think the horse lines up at this race. Someone convince me it’s a good bet..... Wish they’d not expire to be honest, id just keep it back for the week.

[Quevega]

Randomly given a free bet by hills for completing a survey. Only for £10, but it’s still a nice unexpected gesture. Tempted by Annamix, figured it’s worthy of a free bet, however do we actually think the horse lines up at this race. Someone convince me it’s a good bet..... Wish they’d not expire to be honest, id just keep it back for the week.

I'd say that unless you really love the horse. There would be other bets for this freebie.
It's unlikely they'll get another run into it now, and as it was unproven over hurdles they would certainly have wanted at least one more.

If it runs without another prep, the lack of experience leave it with a bit if a task. I reckon

[jack1092]

Randomly given a free bet by hills for completing a survey. Only for £10, but it’s still a nice unexpected gesture. Tempted by Annamix, figured it’s worthy of a free bet, however do we actually think the horse lines up at this race. Someone convince me it’s a good bet..... Wish they’d not expire to be honest, id just keep it back for the week.

No entries in Ire for next week- so unless it's next weekend he probably won't have run in time to make the squad surely? Kept at home?