Arkle 2020

[TCH29]

No I know it's not like for like, it was just very quick.



All I've said is he's been over rated by standing in his box, and he's got no Arkle winning form in the book therefore ISN'T a good bet at 14/1

That's not dismissive, it's saying he's not good value based on his form.... and the fact he's NOT running is being used as a positive, when it's not.

I’m not using at as a positive. I got on after his debut. No one is using that argument; you’re putting up a straw man there, mate.

His Arkle form IS his debut win, his form through Midnight Shadow and Fanion, and his 4th in the Ballymore when it’s the wrong distance for him.


Look, he obviously may not win, but to argue 14/1 isn’t value even. Ow, when only 10 odd horses will run and there is the form above does seem pretty churlish.

[Kevloaf]

We’re on the same page here, Ray.

Murphy got him wrong last year. He’s a 2 miler not a 2m4f horse.

His form through SS to FdE puts him significantly better than FdE on level weights.

His first run, when supposedly not fit, was quicker than standard on his chase debut! That is so rare!

Who else has beat standard or run sub 4min over 2 miles novice chasing? Who had form that puts him significantly better than 2 horses rated 148 (Midnight Shadow) and 150 (FdE)?

How can you say 14/1 isn’t value? You may not think he’ll win, but not sure how you can logically knock that reasoning.

It's easy to say 14/1 isn't value?!

I'm not sure why you keep going on about him being quicker than standard?
On Un De Sceaux's first completed chase start he was slow by 15.9 seconds - won the arkle
On Altior's first chase start he won by 63L and was slow by 20.6 seconds
On Footpad's, slow by 37.6 seconds...


So yeah, it's rare, but so what?!

[Ray]

If he stays at that price on the day ill be having a little go EW... kevloaf can f**k himself

[Kevloaf]

I’m not using at as a positive. I got on after his debut. No one is using that argument; you’re putting up a straw man there, mate.

His Arkle form IS his debut win, his form through Midnight Shadow and Fanion, and his 4th in the Ballymore when it’s the wrong distance for him.


Look, he obviously may not win, but to argue 14/1 isn’t value even. Ow, when only 10 odd horses will run and there is the form above does seem pretty churlish.

14/1 would be shorter than any horse I've backed in it

and he DOESN'T have the best chance of winning



So 14/1 might be value for you, but with my book - it's clearly not?

[Kevloaf]

If he stays at that price on the day ill be having a little go EW... kevloaf can f**k himself

Well I hope we get to see him before the day....

Be very impressive to win it after last running in November at Taunton.

[TCH29]

Notebook’s times in his 3 chase runs are between 9 and 13 second off standard each time. Carrying weight in some.

I agree he’s a worthy fav, but I don’t think he’s bomb proof unless you put 4th in the Supreme as better form than 4th in the Ballymore last year. Form of the winners of those races this year would suggest otherwise.

I’m just railing against this dismissive attitude to a horse, that were he Mullins trained, based on his form, would be significantly shorter in the betting, hence the value.

[TCH29]

14/1 would be shorter than any horse I've backed in it

and he DOESN'T have the best chance of winning



So 14/1 might be value for you, but with my book - it's clearly not?

I got him at 20s; I just think as the market stands today (not your book!!) he is the value! Fair? Make sense?

I’m not trying to persuade you to back him. I said he’s the value in the market currently. You commented about hating this Brewin’ love in. I explained myself. You don’t want to admit you read the form through SS wrong. And, ultimately, you don’t want to bet on him, which is cool. It has no impact on me. I’m just explaining myself when you tried to shoot down my opinion.

[Kevloaf]

I’m just railing against this dismissive attitude to a horse, that were he Mullins trained, based on his form, would be significantly shorter in the betting, hence the value.

Sorry, what?! Don't try and put words in my mouth.

At what point is that relevant to anything I've said?


You're saying Brewin'upastorm is value because he's NOT trained by Mullins?

[Kevloaf]

I got him at 20s; I just think as the market stands today (not your book!!) he is the value! Fair? Make sense?

I’m not trying to persuade you to back him. I said he’s the value in the market currently. You commented about hating this Brewin’ love in. I explained myself. You don’t want to admit you read the form through SS wrong. And, ultimately, you don’t want to bet on him, which is cool. It has no impact on me. I’m just explaining myself when you tried to shoot down my opinion.

If I was looking at the race today, then I 100% dispute that Brewin'upastorm is the clear value pick.


Bapaume at the identical price of 14/1, in my opinion, is much better value, as he's more likely to win?


Does that make sense?



Melon at 14/1 with his Festival form would be more likely to get my money, so I think that's better value.


Cash Back definitely has stronger form in my opinion too, so better value at 12/1 than Brewin at 14/1.

[Saxon Warrior]

If I was looking at the race today, then I 100% dispute that Brewin'upastorm is the clear value pick.


Bapaume at the identical price of 14/1, in my opinion, is much better value, as he's more likely to win?


Does that make sense?



Melon at 14/1 with his Festival form would be more likely to get my money, so I think that's better value.


Cash Back definitely has stronger form in my opinion too, so better value at 12/1 than Brewin at 14/1.

Completely agree with all of that Kev.

[Kevloaf]

You edited this before I replied...... the bit in bold

I got him at 20s; I just think as the market stands today (not your book!!) he is the value! Fair? Make sense?

I’m not trying to persuade you to back him. I said he’s the value in the market currently. You commented about hating this Brewin’ love in. I explained myself. You don’t want to admit you read the form through SS wrong. And, ultimately, you don’t want to bet on him, which is cool. It has no impact on me. I’m just explaining myself when you tried to shoot down my opinion.

You want me to admit I read the form wrong....I literally said regarding that form.....

No I know it's not like for like, it was just very quick.

Is that not me acknowledging the fact it was just very basic reading of the form without the weights?





I'm sorry you felt I was shooting down your opinion personally, I know you're saying it has no impact on you.... but I bet the apology means something to you

[TCH29]

Fine. Disagree on all those points, but we’re allowed to. And you did misread that FDE form!

Bapaume is questionable to run.
Cash Back beat who? Tornado Flyer PU?
Melon they’re taking about going up in tip.

Brewin’ they’re saying here.

FWIW, I have all the above covered at decent prices, like you. Except you don’t have Brewin’ covered.

You might save yourself a couple of points.

[TCH29]

We’ve basically got a very similar book funnily enough.

And yeah, I don’t like having my opinion dismissed! Lots of form reading, reading, and viewing goes into it!

I stand by 4min and 2 1/4 lengths!

[Kevloaf]

The difference is though TCH29....

All my book, thoughts, form reading, viewing and analysis goes in here

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15338-Kevloaf-Cheltenham-2020-Ante-Post-Diary

You might not like your opinions dismissed (I'd prefer to say challenged ) but I feel I've at least earned the right to voice mine on this forum...


Not saying you haven't, just less pressure on you than me

[Ray]

Nah bollocks..its notebooks time