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Originally posted by Ray
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My point is, Brewin is being over rated because of absence.
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Good Boy Bobby's form is alright.... but he beat Ravenhill Road who I think will end up a stayer, and then he was beaten at the intermediate trip...
My point is, Brewin is being over rated because of absence. -
I’m quite keen on the angle of Bapaume staying on to win after a blistering pace being set. Could’ve been Faugheen Machine that said in the JLT thread after I said I liked him for that. It was mentioned long before Paul Kealy made his big shout about it anyway!Comment
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But you’re still ignoring my logic, Kev. The win over SS and subsequent form your judging is not like for like form AT ALL.Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostGotcha!
Was losing my head then
Different distances, for a start! And then when FdE best SS, he did so carrying 12lbs less by 11lbs (admittedly cruising).
That doesn’t make him 7lbs better than Brewin’ as you allude!
Especially as Brewin beat SS by 4L carrying 6lbs more! And Brewin beat him over 2m2f; the Arkle is obviously shorter.
In Brewin’s one chase run at 2m he beat standard time. Find me another Arkle runner who’s done that this season? Go back to his novice hurdling, and his best times were at 2m not 2m4f.
I cannot see how you can apply any logic and be so dismissive about his chances in a 2 mile chase.Comment
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Yeah, FM big fan.Originally posted by Stormy Antarctic View Post
He's got a poster of him above his bed I've heard.Comment
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Read my post above...absolutely not how i’m viewing him or “over rating” him.Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostComment
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Thats too literal, it was a true running at the time i would say and now the extra half mile has brought improvement to midnight shadow regardless of being beaten by champ before falling, no shame in that, but regardless still does well for brewins form and good boy bobby has boosted that so if them 2 horses cN improve then brewin can and you would have to say hes a leading candidate for the english?Comment
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It was discussed at the time.
But watching Brewins first run again would help some people.
He was gently ridden and did really well to get up considering how late Johnson left it, and how much ground he had to make up.
Worth far more than the winning D IMO
Not a championship pace race, but a classy finish from him.Comment
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Ha! Brilliant. I’d be tempted to have one too if the Mrs could be persuaded. Reckon she’s more of a Jason Donovan girl herself thoughComment
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Thats what impressed me, then afterwards the trainer said he was suprised at the win considering they felt the horse wasnt ready for a runOriginally posted by quevega View PostComment
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No I know it's not like for like, it was just very quick.Originally posted by TCH29 View Post
All I've said is he's been over rated by standing in his box, and he's got no Arkle winning form in the book therefore ISN'T a good bet at 14/1
That's not dismissive, it's saying he's not good value based on his form.... and the fact he's NOT running is being used as a positive, when it's not.Comment
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Leading candidate for the English in this race is moot for me.Originally posted by Ray View Post
Of the UK horses I have only got Fanion D'estruval backed (and now wish I didn't).... and I expect this race to go to Ireland.
Worrying about which the best UK horse is, is moot.
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Oh i agree, its notebooks time.Comment
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2.10 Arkle Chase Fakir D'oudairies 20/1 2.10 Arkle Chase Fanion D'estruval 32/1 2.10 Arkle Chase Fanion D'estruval 33/1 2.10 Arkle Chase Fanion D'estruval - place 2/1 2.10 Arkle Chase Fanion D'estruval - place 5/2 2.10 Arkle Chase Tornado Flyer 33/1 2.10 Arkle Chase Cash Back 33/1 2.10 Arkle Chase Notebook 50/1 2.10 Arkle Chase Bapaume 25/1 2.10 Arkle Chase Melon 25/1 2.10 Arkle Chase Melon 21/1
I didn't realise how much I don't like the English horses
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We’re on the same page here, Ray.Originally posted by Ray View Post
Murphy got him wrong last year. He’s a 2 miler not a 2m4f horse.
His form through SS to FdE puts him significantly better than FdE on level weights.
His first run, when supposedly not fit, was quicker than standard on his chase debut! That is so rare!
Who else has beat standard or run sub 4min over 2 miles novice chasing? Who had form that puts him significantly better than 2 horses rated 148 (Midnight Shadow) and 150 (FdE)?
How can you say 14/1 isn’t value? You may not think he’ll win, but not sure how you can logically knock that reasoning.Comment
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