Arkle 2020

[Quevega]

Opinions please chaps.

Obviously I have backed Laurina for both the Arkle and JLT, with 7pts on each (my biggest single win bets), but I am debating whether or not to cash and place the lot on 'any race' given WPM's record of changing things around. I'm sure it would only take an injury to BDD or Laurina not to go well over fences for her to be back over hurdles.

The prices are 14/1 (Arkle) & 12/1 (JLT), but these have the options of cash out, if I am quick enough! The 'any race' price is 5/1 which also has a slight boost available.

I backed the individual prices because I was expecting the market to react more, which it hasn't and therefore I am in no better position or ahead of the market as I felt I could have been.

I want Laurina on side, that's a definite, I just wouldn't mind some opinions in what they feel is the best option.

Not sure what's changed ?
What would you have done had her price shortened ?

If it's nothing, then you're in the same position. Her price will likely alter at some stage, due to her or others.
Whether cash out is available or not has to be viewed as a possible out, a nice to have and not to be relied upon.
Basically you've got to view it as money spent.
If you're now in two minds you maybe ought to lower stakes a little, especially this far out with so little evidence.

Your money is definitely spent going any race, and the odds are poor IMO. The risks of not getting a run is reduced but as Scooby said, there's a greater chance that she misses the festival altogether for some reason or another and not just run in the wrong race.

You'd be as well trying to get some fancy win prices on the exchanges during the season for the other races (using small stakes, possibly taken from your original 14pts laid down), to lay off a little.

[ComplyOrDie]

What are the thoughts on Annamix for this?

Another Mullins runner to try and predict but low mileage over hurdles, is going novice chasing confirmed by Ricci. He seems hopeful he still retains the ability that brought the supreme hype of 2 seasons ago before injury. Would have liked to have heard an update on the stable tour but not to be, same price as Draconien at 33/1

I think Annamix will be best up in trip myself.

[Kevloaf]

I'd wait for Laurina to win a Mickey mouse chase and she'll get clipped.

Definitely wouldn't cash it now ... she's going chasing and therefore won't get any bigger than she is now.

October is all about putting yourself in positions top be ahead of the SP.

The reason I am surprised she hasn't shortened is because I expect a lot of people to back her because of her name...

I think she's going to be a good trading opportunity to either have her running for free, or turn a profit after she wins on chase debut

[ComplyOrDie]

I'll leave her, thanks chaps.

[Craigy14]

I think Annamix will be best up in trip myself.

Could well be right as similarly priced up for the JLT.

Split stake could be an option with CashOut as Arkle and JLT priced at 33’s.

[jack1092]

I can definitely relate to this, it's not healthy.

Thanks for the opinion too, at least if I do any race I can't cash anyway so no stress, I just lose

The feeling behind the 'any race' was that if she takes to fences she will win and in no way is she going off bigger than 5's anyway. If she's crap over them then it's back over hurdles and I have a live bet, probably at poorer value, but a live bet all the same.

In a JLT, why would she certainly go off shorter than 5s?

[ComplyOrDie]

In a JLT, why would she certainly go off shorter than 5s?

She went off 5/2 for a Champion Hurdle that was way better than the potential JLT line up, after beating nothing beforehand!

[Scooby91]

In a JLT, why would she certainly go off shorter than 5s?

If she did it will be The same reason she went off an abysmal price in the CH. Winning shocking races with ease.

I'll give it the benefit of doubt and see if she takes on the likes of samcro in the drinmore or melon... in the irish arkle.
But it's likely we've already seen how this plays out over hurdles.

[KingSprinterSacre]

Al dancer v getaway trump confirmed tomorrow in the novice chase after decs announced. 4 runner field made up by Caius Marcius of Nicky Richards (has to give them 8lbs too) and Not That Fuisse of Skelton.
Richards horse has built up a lot of experience already, 8 runs over fences since June. 4 wins and 4 2nds

[Arkle]

Just cannot have Laurina has beat nothing to note abit like angels breath has a lot to prove for me to be backing her for anything

[The King Pimm]

Al dancer v getaway trump confirmed tomorrow in the novice chase after decs announced. 4 runner field made up by Caius Marcius of Nicky Richards (has to give them 8lbs too) and Not That Fuisse of Skelton.
Richards horse has built up a lot of experience already, 8 runs over fences since June. 4 wins and 4 2nds

I think Not Too Fuisse will give both of these a good race along with Carius. He goes well on better ground and this time of year. As there are only 4 racing there is no E/W option so will be just watching but I couldn’t call it, a very competitive race to look forward too

[ComplyOrDie]

I'd call Al Dancer to beat Getaway Trump and uphold the Betfair Hurdle form, but is a tricky little race overall.

[Quevega]

Nice that from Brewin.
probably go up in trip but that was speedy enough and he was held up off what looked a decent pace. Ran on nicely, hill would help.
added 25-1 arkle b365.

[Rigga]

Think Brewin wants further than an Arkle ?

[The King Pimm]

I thought Good Boy Bobby jumped and ran well there as well as Brewin. It’s a shame there is still uncertainty as to whether the Rooney’s will run their horses at Cheltenham this season after stopping all their horses last season because I think GBB would have a live chance in the JLT. Anyone know if the Rooney’s are allowing their horses to at Cheltenham this season?