Arkle 2020

[jono]

Al Dancer gets a good mention in both One Jump Ahead and Paul Fergusons Jumpers to Follow.
Expect he'll be a big player in this and think the 33s is still fair

[ComplyOrDie]

I could end up well wrong, but my opinion of Al Dancer is that he won't be good enough to compete at the top level.

I'm also inclined to have the same thoughts about Getaway Trump too.

I can't see myself backing either tbh, though obviously I am flexible with my opinions so this could change.

[Kevloaf]

I could end up well wrong, but my opinion of Al Dancer is that he won't be good enough to compete at the top level.

Yeah I'm not keen on him either CoD.

I do need to go back and watch but my gut is that NTD over hypes most horses he has, and that puts me off.

Ultimately, he was a handicap winner last year, so needs to step up (albeit looking like he should) when it came to it, he didn't... then got put away.

It wouldn't SHOCK me if he's good, but he has it to prove, although 33/1 isn't exactly unfair.

[ComplyOrDie]

Pretty much the same thought's Kev.

I think he was campaigned well last season and his form obviously made him look like a contender until the day where he was readily put away.

[JackieMoon33]

I could end up well wrong, but my opinion of Al Dancer is that he won't be good enough to compete at the top level.

I'm also inclined to have the same thoughts about Getaway Trump too.

I can't see myself backing either tbh, though obviously I am flexible with my opinions so this could change.

Timeform have Getaway Trump at 153p as the second highest rated novice behind Klassical Dream (154). I personally think Getaway Trump might be slightly over looked as he missed all the big festivals. His last two runs of the season he stepped up massively. He was hardly disgraced earlier in the season behind Champ in the Challow either.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Yep; they’ll find some easy races for Al Dancer and he will shorten for the race but on the day at the highest level he would always find at least 1 or 2 horses too good imho

[ComplyOrDie]

Regarding Getaway Trump, if they stepped him up in trip I'd be more interested.

I don't think he's a top level 2 miler. Just an opinion.

I also think his rating is ridiculous. Not one graded win last season and he's within a 1lb of a 3 time Grade one winning novice hurdler.

[Kevloaf]

Timeform have Getaway Trump at 153p as the second highest rated novice behind Klassical Dream (154). I personally think Getaway Trump might be slightly over looked as he missed all the big festivals. His last two runs of the season he stepped up massively. He was hardly disgraced earlier in the season behind Champ in the Challow either.

He looks to have been well placed (typically for Nicholls) but I can't see where his hurdles form really stacks up. None of the horses he beat in those last 2 runs were anything on my radar anymore?

I love Nicholls and know for sure he'll win races with him, so he may be a trading angle kind of horse, but I think he's more likely to pot hunt with him than aim him at Cheltenham...

Perhaps he's said differently?

[Middle_Of_March]

Most years at the start of the season I think the betting reflects a likely poor turnout and poor field (compared to the RSA).

But this year I think that if half the likely candidates here turn up, I think it’ll be a belter of an Arkle.

Thomas Darby, Draconien, Pic D’Orhy and Getaway Trump are four horses I’ve backed for any race and could go here.

[JackieMoon33]

He looks to have been well placed (typically for Nicholls) but I can't see where his hurdles form really stacks up. None of the horses he beat in those last 2 runs were anything on my radar anymore?

I love Nicholls and know for sure he'll win races with him, so he may be a trading angle kind of horse, but I think he's more likely to pot hunt with him than aim him at Cheltenham...

Perhaps he's said differently?

You could well be right that Nicholls will pot hunt, especially as he’s a syndicate horse and they want their days at the track.

I actually like the form of novices in handicaps as at least you have a real rating benchmark to work with. Novices who only run against their peers in open races are always harder to gauge. His official rating of 155 is maybe a better number to work with as its proven form.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Most years at the start of the season I think the betting reflects a likely poor turnout and poor field (compared to the RSA).

But this year I think that if half the likely candidates here turn up, I think it’ll be a belter of an Arkle.

Thomas Darby, Draconien, Pic D’Orhy and Getaway Trump are four horses I’ve backed for any race and could go here.

It looks a very open Arkle which makes a great race but on paper at this stage there doesn’t look to be a star amongst them like we usually have to look forward to going chasing

[Faugheen_Machine]

Al Dancer gets a good mention in both One Jump Ahead and Paul Fergusons Jumpers to Follow.
Expect he'll be a big player in this and think the 33s is still fair

I've been toying with backing Al Dancer for this for a while but haven't seen any news on him going over fences. The 33/1 looks big to me if he does go over the larger objects.

[The King Pimm]

From what I’ve read connections are expecting Al Dancer to improve over a fence and he has the size & scope to jump and progress. I have a gut feeling he is a horse susceptible to injury but I’ve backed him at 33’s in the hope he has a productive season. The Arkle for the past few years has been dominated by the Irish so I’m sure they’ll turn up with a number of strong contenders but we may have a few solid horses too. Does the Arkle have a limit of number of entries? From memory it’s usually a small field of no more than 9-10 horses?? Some years even less

[jono]

It looks a very open Arkle which makes a great race but on paper at this stage there doesn’t look to be a star amongst them like we usually have to look forward to going chasing

That would be my view at this stage as well. Once you take out the likes of Laurina, Klassical Dream, City Island, Band of Outlaws, Malone Road, Samcro, Champ, Fusil Raffles, Reserve Tank, Elixir de Nutz you're left with in my opinion a pretty level playing field outside of:

Melon - by far the class horse in the race. Have made my doubts known on him earlier in the thread though at least with getting him onside this early on.
Thomas Darby - I really should be backing him at 25/1 for this with cashout but all his runs to me suggest he needs further to really show what he can do and bring out the best in him. 2nd in the Supreme arguably the strongest piece of novice form in the market and the only gripe really right now is my own perception and interpretation of his runs last year.

Agree that Al Dancer may well be found out over fences like it could be viewed he was in March. I wasn't a huge fan last season and didn't once back him for any of his races. Once he won the Betfair his price for me was too short for a Supreme and i've never liked that as a prep run however I do think he looks to have plenty of attributes that should make him do very well over fences at 2 miles and a quick fast pace jumping at speed. Something where I question some horses who have slightly more evidence or substance to their form want.

I think at the very least he'll be right up there in the early season trials and a much shorter price. No reason to think fences won't bring him on and it's certainly the discipline to bring the best out of him according to everyone connected to the horse. Even when his 'stock' was at his peak having won the Betfair, connections were continuing to say how the coming season(s) over fences would be the making of him.

I could easily be looking back in 4-5 months time and go yeah turns out the Supreme was no fluke and he just isn't good enough but i'm a lot more forgiving of 1 bad run with a horse than I used to be. The fact they didn't get him out after means the judgement on him is very much at a crossroads to whether he was better than that and it was just a blip or that he just isn't that good. 33/1 is enough to get me to go with the former.

My biggest concern is the fact that Tom Segal likes him so much

[ComplyOrDie]

If Felix Desjy can jump a fence slickly he'll be a tough nut to peg back with his running style, the big problem is his value, or lack of it.