Arkle 2020

[Quevega]

Notebook's antics before the race were not great to see, and this would be a concern.
But to go that gallop and still find at the finish means he has some engine.
They both jump so well too.
I said earlier today, but the danger is they go mental and set it up for some idiot with less class.

[Ray]

It will be very interesting but if your looking at 2 horses who just fought it out for the finish id say go with the winner next time out it just looked the stronger nag (through rose tinted glasses anyway)

[Hurricane fly]

Notebook's antics before the race were not great to see, and this would be a concern.
But to go that gallop and still find at the finish means he has some engine.
They both jump so well too.
I said earlier today, but the danger is they go mental and set it up for some idiot with less class.

I was a bit worried Notebook might go with Cash ack the whole way but Rachel dropped him in behind, see no reason why she wouldn’t do the same again

[Quevega]

I was a bit worried Notebook might go with Cash ack the whole way but Rachel dropped him in behind, see no reason why she wouldn’t do the same again

Yep, and he seemed to do that just fine and not get carried away himself, so hopefully she's in control come march.

[The King Pimm]

I think when I mentioned it in mid October, someone said they'd already backed it anyway.
Probably King Pimm as he backs everything in this race

I have been planning to post my diary entry but it’s going to take me a whole day to type out all my Arkle entries!!

I cashed out on my Notebook bet at 50’s e/w for a £60 profit and placed £70 at 7/2 with Sky bet before today’s race just incase anything went wrong today. Same return but lost the e/w return possibility. Not sure if it was the right thing to do but on the plus side I’m guaranteed to win this race whilst probably posting a loss if anyone outside the top 5 win

[Kautothegreat8]

Can’t put my finger on it .......... Notebook just doesn’t convince me. Don’t ask me why but I just can’t get excited over the horse.

[SeanRock]

There’s marginally more improvement left in Cash Back for me!

[TCH29]

Can’t put my finger on it .......... Notebook just doesn’t convince me. Don’t ask me why but I just can’t get excited over the horse.

Here’s my logic:

Notebook has got all the Irish form so far, no doubt. But he’s won all races in times of 4min 13 to 4min 15. All between 9-15 seconds off standard. Remarkably consistent. Brewin won his 2 mile race in 3min 55. The other was 2m2f. Both between 1.55 secs FAST and 10secs slow. I still think there is a chance he is better than the Irish.

You can read today’s Scilly Isles form in a few ways. Obviously it’s over 4f longer, on heavy, but Brewin’ beat Midnight Shadow 16 lengths on his chase debut. Obviously MS improved got the distance today. And obviously Brewin has form to GBB, as does Mister Fisher. But it could be that the extra 4f on heavy was too much for GBB and today was not his true running. It was way out of synch with all other form in the English book, so i’m happy to take it as that.

And as Stormy says below, and has been said before, a 135 rated hurdler winning the Arkle is somewhat unusual.

So, I still think Notebook might find one better in March. No doubt he’ll place though in my mind, so if you got on at big prices we, fair play. I didn’t.

[Stormy Antarctic]

Can’t put my finger on it .......... Notebook just doesn’t convince me. Don’t ask me why but I just can’t get excited over the horse.

Possibly because he wasn’t top class over hurdles?
I can be the same with hurdlers if they weren’t great on the flat. Probably shouldn’t try and judge horses like that but I can’t help it sometimes. Notebook is looking the likeliest winner of this so far so I don’t want to crab him

[BigChaang]

I didn't see the Antics before the race , will watch the replay.
Was a great Race and i was very pleased with Cashback's run .
I thought when he ran at Naas in early january , he looked pretty good.
So good to see him progress .
Excellent tipping from " The self proclaimed voice of reason" and Jono .
But i wouldn't expect anything less from this forum !!.
And i am on Notebook at 25's and 16's , cashback @ 14's.

[jono]

Notebook only being 135 over hurdles doesn't bother me in the slightest. Le Richebourg was a warm favourite for the race last season before injury. He, like Notebook won the key trials. He was rated just 140 over hurdles before going chasing. But I don't remember it coming up? Sire du Grugy finished his novice hurdle campaign off 143 yet went onto win the Champion Chase and multiple grade ones. Special Tiara last run over hurdles was off 116! If Notebook weren't to win in it's definitely not because of his low mark last year, I think he's proved now in the last 2 Irish trials that he's a class horse and right up there over fences. Though i'm not saying he'd having won a Supreme by any means, HdB has also come out and said he was running him over the wrong trip last season. Obvious and easy to say in hindsight winning grade 1 novice chases over 2 miles but I wouldn't like to see Notebook over 2m4 over a fence right now. It would 100% be the wrong trip.

On his pre-race antics today. Certainly not ideal, but he managed to overcome all of that and still get his head in front in a battle.
I'm pretty certain he showed no similar signs before the Ballymore last season either so hopefully it is a one off rather than a trait.

My only slight concern going into Cheltenham is whether that battle with Cash Back might just leave a slight mark on the horse (and indeed the runner up) with 5 weeks to go.

I wasn't 100% convinced on Cash Back after his last run. I thought the race fell apart and it may have flattered the winning distance. But he absolutely backed it up here. I've got a nice position in the Arkle but I am tempted to add him at 7/1. He's going to go into the race as the Mullins number 1 and that alone is worthy of backing. But i'm still deciding on this one. Like I mentioned with Notebook, I have a slight worry about how tough a race and finish between the pair. I'd be confident of Notebook upholding the form, particularly if he has no issues pre race but 4 points difference, with less than a length between them today and Mullins training, plenty of appeal.

Of Mullins other runners, the Bapaume project backfired. I was quite keen on him myself having 2pts on for the Arkle but he never looked happy. His jumping was decent but we surly won't be seeing him over 2 miles. Felt I was lucky to get my full stake back cashing out if i'm honest. Move on...

Melon at face value is another who you'd be saying goes up in trip and has no shot. That said we've seen this before. He's a shadow of himself away from Cheltenham. He's suffered defeats of 19, 29, 10, 22, 7, and 11 lengths in the past away from Cheltenham. So a defeat like today isn't new for the horse (he had also lost 3/4 at the track prior). Listening to both Ruby and Patrick suggested he'd be in the Flogas. I may be completely wrong but based on the amount of clashes and runners today, I can't help but think Willie maybe moved the likes of Melon, Laurina and Allaho away from the Flogas to give Faugheen the very best shot of winning. I've left him backed at 25/1 for the Marsh. Still deciding what to do on that one...

Gallant John Joe ran another solid race. Can see the appeal in him for the Close Brothers IF they can get another run in but I think they might be tight in getting in under 145. His form tailed off at the end of last season but you have to think he'll do best over further. He ran another decent race at the meeting last year in the grade one won by Commander of Fleet.

It's hard to see any other Irish horses enter the mix in this race now. Perhaps a Flogas runner of Mullins who may not stay (Tornado Flyer for example). I'd fully expect Fakir D'Oudaries to be going up in trip again. I think the situation was similar to A Plus Tard in that today would be the last pop at 2 miles but unless they were to win a step up to the intermediate trip is next.

[Quevega]

I was going to do something similar about the hurdles rating Jono.
Good point well made.
It's like saying you're not convinced Jamie Vardy's premier league quality because he was still playing non league at age 23.
Are people still going to be mentioning Notebooks hurdles mark when he's Favourite for the Champion chase (not that I think he will be)

Sprinter Scare was only a mid 140's horse I think.

Some horse's can simply improve 20-30lbs by jumping fences brilliantly and growing a bit more.

[TC2]

He was fine before the ballymore, and stood out like a 'sore thumb' in all honesty and sure he would do for most racegoers in terms of potential chasers. I'd be surprised, if HdB himself is surprised with the improvement he has shown this year. i wouldnt have thought he'd have been hard pushed last season, as a horse of his size, would tend to need a bit longer to fill out
The best figure i've got for him is the craddockstown win, and i think he's run within himself the last twice. Cheltenham will suit him far more than leopardstown. Whilst the pre race antics would be a small concern, i wouldnt be a big fan of horse going to cheltenham fresh over the minimum

[Istabraq]

If they can find a decent prep for Fakir I'd still fancy him to go very close.
Paid the price for sitting off Notebook once but won't be doing that again, but needs a prep...

[charlie]

Take a bow Q if you put them both up, thats some fantastic AP tipping

Super work Q!