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The owls are not what they seem -
Decided to take a look over the last 3 seasons (plus the 2 before for the odd bit of info), to see how those who ran at trials day got on at the Festival and spot any themes around favourites, trainers or positions finished etc, thought I'd share my findings with some rambling below to save others from having to do the same, may not be of use to people but feel free to look into any angles you think you might spot that I didn't!
Triumph Trial
2018
1st - Apples Shakira (4th Triumph)
2nd - Look My Way (8th Boodles off 135)
2019
1st - Fakir D'oudairies (4th Supreme)
2nd - Fine Brunello (17th Boodles off 139)
3rd - Adjali (7th Triumph)
4th - Our Power (9th Boodles off 135)
6th - Nelson River (6th Triumph)
PU - Dogon (PU Boodles off 133)
2019
1st - Galahad Quest (14th Boodles off 134)
2nd - Night Edition (2nd Boodles off 133)
3rd - Gerolamo Cardano (PU Boodles off 131)
Likely to want to have the winner onside for Triumph (last years outlier is probably a rather weak field). Adagio or Nassalam might fit this at 10s & 16s best. Henderson's last 2 runners in this have gone on to the Triumph and tend to be his number 1 juvenile heading into Festival (Pentland obviously turned
out better than Adjali on the day). The Henderson trend continues with 2017 Charli Parc running here and Consul De Thaix (6th & 10th Triumph). So this confirms what is probably known that Heross Du Seuil is stable number 1. Could be worth taking 25s if you like him as only Consul set off above that price and he was certainly the weakest of all the horses.
Only one horse has ran well in Boodles after running here and that was Night Edition, who hasn't done his form any favours in the Betfair Trophy in December.
Doesn't tend to work out well as a Boodles trial but Good Ball might be one to keep an eye on at 20s considering Nicholls does target that race. If those
declared to run do go off then I would think this could be the strongest running of this trial in a while.
Nov Handicap Trial
2018
1st - Mister Whitaker off 129 (1st Nov Handi off 137)
3rd - Sizing Tennessee off 147 (3rd 4-miler)
5th - Full Irish off 137(PU off 135)
2019
1st - Kildisart off 141 (4th Marsh)
2nd - Highway One O One 143 (10th Nov Hanid off 145)
3rd - Spiritofthegames off 146 (3rd Brown of 147)
F - Azerti off 137 (7th Brown off 137)
2020
1st - Simply The Betts off 140 (1st Brown off 149)
2nd - Imperial Aura off 136 (1st Nov Handi off 143)
5th - Champagne Court off 143 (8th Nov Handi off 143)
9th - Jarveys Plate off 147 (F Nov Handi off 143)
Anyone who places top 3 is always worth keeping an eye on (Again even in 2016 & 2017 1st & 2nd. With the Novice Handicap now at Sandown those in this Saturday
are more likely to divert to Brown you would suspect. The favourite for the race has placed the last 3 years so usually priced up correctly, and those favourites
all went on to place at a minimum at the festival (Sizing Ten, Spritof & Imp Aura), so worth keeping an eye on how this is priced up by the bookies.
Those running off 140+ who don't end up running in the Novice Handicapare interesting with their festive record being as follows:
3rd 4-miler
4th Marsh
3rd Brown
1st Brown
3 in the early decs are 140+ those being Espoir De Romay (140), Lieutenant Rocco (140) & Sevarano (148). They all have nice form, Rocco with that 2nd round Cheltneham
to Fusil Raffles being the only one with course form over fences. I don't think any of them are of the standard for the Marsh or RSA but certainly see Espoir & Sevarano
as Brown Plate options and Rocco could go there or even up in trip for the Ultima seeing as his novice hurdling season saw him run in the Potato race. However I think Espoir De Romay is of most interest here considering his run LTO being 7L behind the new incarnation of Denman, Royal Pagille, with Espoir also carrying 5lb penalty that day. He is available at 25s for the Brown and could well be short price fav off the back of it meeting the earlier mentioned backing of this race fav for the fest.
Wasn't any other trainer patterns noticed over the recent runnings, however Hold The Note must be another of interest after his 3rd off 7lb higher at last years festival. He remains 33s for the Brown Plate and could be an interesting one if he is being directed to the festival.
Brown Plate Trial
2018
1st - Frodon off 154 (5th Ryanair)
2nd - Shantou Flyer off 153 (2nd Ultima off 152)
3rd - King's Odyssey off 139 (3rd Brown off 139)
4th - Coo Star Sivola off 135 (1st Ultima off 142)
5th - O O Seven off 152 (10th Ultima off 152)
7th - Casse Tete off 137 (8th Ultima off 138)
8th - Arctic Gold off 132 (F Kim Muir off 132)
10th - Ballyhill off 138 (9th Brown off 138)
PU- Ultragold off 142 (13th Brown off 142)
PU - Pressurize off 136 (7th Kim Muir off 133)
2019
1st - Sirah Du Lac off 134 (1st Brown off 141)
2nd - Janika off 150 (2nd Brown off 156)
5th - Brelan D'As off 136 (3rd Annual off 136)
6th - Actival off 151 (6th Ultima off 151)
9th - Old Grangewood off 145 (9th Ultima off 140)
2020
1st - Cepage off 154 (7th Ultima off 155)
2nd - Spiritofthegames off 149 (6th Brown off 149)
4th - Militarian off 142 (12th Kim Muir off 140)
6th - Highway One O One off 145 (16th Brown off 143)
Those in the top 3 places again seem to be of interest, especially if you think Cepage was ran over too far as most do in the Ultima last year. Tough one to predict
finishing order of for this coming Saturday so won't even try to but could be worth baring in mind if there is a run that interests on Saturday. One thing I did notice
is that those who go off to Ultima or Kim Muir tended to have been tried over around 3 miles before over fences earlier in their career, 4 horses fit that mold, Aso, Benatar,
Kauto Riko & Mister Whitaker. All of which do not have a price for the Ultima yet but considering the showings over 3m for Aso & Whitaker I can't see them stepping up for it, and the other 2 both ran very respectably in the November & December Gold Cup Handis on course so you would expect 2m 4f to remain their distance. That being said Venetia Williams did run Pressurize and Cepage in here prior to a step up in trip so the same may happen for Aso potentially.
Those who run in this race off 151 tend to put in respectable festival performances, as you would expect from classier horses. These would include from this years Cepage, Aso, Caribean Boy, Al Dancer & Mister Whitaker. Of those Caribean Boy could be interesting due to him having a similar profile to that of Janika who ran very well in 2019 off 156, another one who is not priced up.
The start price Favourites from this that go to the festival also have a good record:
PU Ryanair
3rd Ryanair
1st Ultima
2nd Brown
At the moment Midnight Shadow is 9/2 favourite in the early markets, someone did do a good write up the other day about Midnight Shadow (apologies can't remember who) but there is a very solid case for him based off of his run behind Chatham Street Lad and 25/1 could be a good price for the Brown come March. Al Dancer has been heavily supported in his past 2 course runs so he may well be someone who looks to set off favourite too.
Cotswold Chase
2018
1st - Definitly Red (6th Gold Cup)
2nd - American (9th Gold Cup)
4th - The Last Samuri (3rd Cheese Jumps)
PU - Tea For Two (7th Gold Cup)
PU - Singlefarmpayment (5th Ultima off 145)
2019
1st - Frodon (1st Ryanair)
2nd - Elegant Escape (6th Gold Cup)
3rd - Terrefort (PU Ryanair)
5th - Minella Rocco (PU Ultima off 152)
2020
1st - Santini (2nd Gold Cup)
2nd - Bristol De Mai (9th Gold Cup)
PU - Slate House (6th RSA)
PU - Mister Whitaker (3rd Brown off 152)
Bit of a graveyard for or any festival hope. Santini ran well last year and is probably your best option from the weekends field and could be clipped from 10s if he bounces back to form, which I would expect to happen back under conditions that will suit much more than Aintree. Native River is always worth a mention (for obvious reasons) & a good run/win here would see that 40/1 cut significantly you would imagine. Sub 150 horses that run poorly in this could be of interest for handicaps it has proven. That gives you Lord Du Mensil, The Conditional & Yorkhill, all of which you would imagine would be Ultima horses if they do go fest. The only one priced up is The Conditional at 22/1, bad run here shouldn't see his price change too much you would think, if he runs too well (and he looks jocked up already) it could kill the Ultima plot off which I'd rather avoid given I have 27s boosted on Hills with him.
Classic Nov Hurdle
2018
1st - Santini (3rd Potato Race)
2nd - Black Op (2nd Ballymore)
3rd - Aye Aye Charlie (7th Ballymore)
4th - Mulcahys Hill (PU Potato Race)
5th - Slate House (F Supreme)
2019
1st - Birchdale (PU Potato Race)
3rd - Jarveys Plate (9th Ballymore)
F - Brewin'upastorm (4th Ballymore)
2020
1st - Harry Senior (PU Potato Race)
3rd - Protektorat (10th Coral Cup off 144)
4th - House Island (8th Potato Race)
6th - Ruthless Article (PU Martin Pipe)
PU - Rocket Lad (PU Pertemps)
Usually a stat Gault puts up was one I very much focused on, the winners of this were 3 winners and 2 places from 5 runners after 2018 in the Bartlett. The last 2 years have really damaged that stat, but it is one to still bare in mind as usually a good trial for the 3m Novice Hurdle come March. Henderson does tend to bring his number one Potato horse here,so it may be a suggestion that one of the 2 horses entered up are his best option for that at the fest. Out of the 2 I can't see it being Emir Sacree, so you would suspect it could well be Lecale's Article, who is not priced up for this yet but is available at 25/1 for the Ballymore. Interestingly he is as short as 12/1 for this any race.
3 of the last 4 favourites for this race (Brewin, Yanworth & Wholestone) to have ran at the festival have gone on to place in March (Mulcalys Hill the one to not, note Brewin was using extended place market with his 4th). The current fav is split 9/4 between Lecale's Article who we have mentioned and Bear Ghylls, the later who you can get 25/1 for the Ballymore and 33/1 for the Potato. I would lean towards the Ballymore for Bear just based off his existing runs over this trip, but he is certainly an exciting one to keep an eye on this week for festival clues but the 20/1 any race could be a play on Hills if declared.
Cleeve Hurdle
2018
2nd - Wholestone (3rd Stayers Hurdle)
3rd - Colin's Sister (4th Stayers Hurdle)
4th - The Worlds End (7th Stayers Hurdle)
6th - Thomas Campbell (14th Pertemps)
PU - Saint Are (PU Cheese Jumps)
PU - Finian's Oscar (5th Marsh)
2019
1st - Paisley Park (1st Stayers Hurdle)
2nd - West Approach (9th Stayers Hurdle)
3rd - Black Op (12th Stayers Hurdle)
4th - Sam Spinner (2nd Stayers Hurdle)
5th - Lil Rockerfeller (10th Coral Cup)
6th - Aye Aye Charlie (8th Potato Race)
9th - Wholestone (5th Stayers Hurdle)
10th - Mighty Don (8th Stayers Hurdle)
2020
1st - Paisley Park (7th Stayers Hurdle)
2nd - Summerville Boy (5th Stayers Hurdle)
3rd - Lisnagar Oscar (1st Stayers Hurdle)
4th - Tobefair (6th Stayers Hurdle)
6th - Kilbricken Storm (14th Pertemps)
7th - L'Ami Serge (PU Stayers Hurdle)
Absolutely nothing of use I can find from that, that wasn't already know. Paisley Park is obviously favourite for weekend and Stayers and would expect him to back that up. Itchy Feet is the interesting entry reverting back to hurdles, similar to last years win (Albeit Oscar doing it for a race prior to the Cleeve).
2m Hurdle Handicap
2018
1st- Remiluc (2nd County Hurdle)
8th - Robin Of Locksley (Refused 4-miler)
2019 & 2020
No Festival Runner
About as useful for clues as a Nicky Henderson excuse.
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Does anyone with a whizzy form package know which , if any of these races produce much at festival?
Not sure it has so much value, particularly compared to DRF?
EDIT....Amazing DG !!!Last edited by TigerRolllllll; 25 January 2021, 07:15 PM.Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)Comment
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Great stuff DG and NR. All I can say is I've lived off the form of the Novice Handicap Chase carrying it through to the handicaps at the Fez in recent years. Brilliant pointer.Comment
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Not sure I've done much other than link to the card in order to promote discussion and boy has Native River done that.The owls are not what they seemComment
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Fantastic research NR but the main thing I’ll take from your work is:
‘4th - The Last Samuri (3rd Cheese Jumps)‘Comment
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Top work NR.
Not that it's going to be relevant this year, but I vaguely remember the Cleeve Hurdle being a trend for the Ultima at one stage.
The Druid's Nephew 2015 - 5th Cleeve - Won Ultima
The Young Master 2016 - 6th Cleeve - 3rd Ultima
Un Temps Pour Tout 2017 - 6th Cleeve - Won Ultima
Not sure I see Ramses De Teillee backing that upComment
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Top work NR
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Keeping my eye for third wind in that race ahead of the pertemps, hopefully runs well drops another pound or so and back for another pertemps run as he’s not entered in the stayers.Originally posted by Captain Chris View PostComment
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I second that big time NR, must have taken some work and we all appreciate it!!Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostComment
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....Santini a doubt for the Cotswold Chase, there might be value elsewhere:
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If Santini comes out then Saint Calvados should shorten from circa current 4-1, with only Native River (first run of the season) and Bristol De Mai (best when fresh) ahead of him in the betting.Originally posted by Eggs View Post
So might be worth backing Saint C for the win or to win the Cotswold and GC (66-1 with Hills 75- boosted). If Saint C wins the Cotswold Chase then similar to RP debate, he would surely put himself in the reckonning to go GC. Saint C is already rated 167 and has run well and won on both soft and heavy. I might have talked myself into doing this now, as I already have Saint C in the Ryannair. His seasonal debut behind Frodon in the KG was OK and we will find out for sure on Saturday how he copes with the trip up the hill.Comment
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Has Saint Calvados connections mentioned or quoted as GC being his target?Comment
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