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This is a bit left field (especially from me).
Talking up a five year old.
But I thought Couer Sublime ran an interesting race today.
Definitely looks like a strong traveller that would like a stronger pace and a hill finish.
And the jockey was very kind on him today once they'd skipped away off the bend.
Glad I have a saver on him as he might have a say come March.
There, I've said it.
I honestly wouldn’t be interested in him at 100/1. He has literally 0 form that makes him get anywhere near placing in a champion hurdle - even a weak renewal as this one will be.
As for today, Klassical Dream. Deary me. I’ve made a real mess of this race unless Saldier turns up fully fit (which I’d hope he will).
I haven’t a penny on her but it’s ridiculous to my eye that Honeysuckle isn’t running here. She’d absolutely gag up.
I honestly wouldn’t be interested in him at 100/1. He has literally 0 form that makes him get anywhere near placing in a champion hurdle - even a weak renewal as this one will be.
As for today, Klassical Dream. Deary me. I’ve made a real mess of this race unless Saldier turns up fully fit (which I’d hope he will).
I haven’t a penny on her but it’s ridiculous to my eye that Honeysuckle isn’t running here. She’d absolutely gag up.
Let’s not get too carried away by what’s happened over Xmas in the last few days guys and girls with ‘Epatante this’, ‘Sharjah that’ and Klassical Dream this AND that’. There’s lots of racing to go over the next 10 weeks. I’d be very certain nobody had even mentioned Espoir D’allen on this very thread at this precise moment a year ago - a horse that bolted up by a record 15 lengths.
It’s great everyone having their opinions throughout these threads, and I’m always interested to read many of them, but let’s not suggest for one minute that we know for sure Epatante is going to ‘bolt up’ on Champion Hurdle Day or Saldier will ‘destroy the field’ based on limited evidence across a time span so far.
With Christmas over, I like to take a look at the races and the market as they stand at the halfway mark of the season (or near enough halfway til Cheltenham anyway). Always good to see if there’s some hidden value at this stage or a lively outsider I haven’t yet added.
Champion Hurdle: Epatante heads the market at 3/1 after winning the Christmas Hurdle. The win was impressive I thought but Henderson seemed to think it was a bit of a free hit with her as an unknown quantity at Grade 1 level. So with that in mind, the money for her was fascinating. I can’t help but think it was a poor race and the very soft ground clearly suited her. In an open year, I can understand why the unexposed exciting ‘could be anything’ type leads the betting but 3/1 is simply terrible at this stage. It’s just too short. Simple as that.
To my mind, Saldier has the best form of the potential runners (assuming there’s no great escape from Buveur D’Air of course). Who’d have thought his fall when looking like beating Espoir Allen in February would go on to be such good form. His only run this year in front of [B]Klassical Dream and [B]Sharjah is decent enough you’d think too. The issue with him is that he missed Christmas with a minor injury but he’s clearly fragile. Do you want to be taking 6/1 on a fragile type like that? Depends on individual punters. If he runs, and gets a prep in, he’d be the most likely winner for me right now.
Klassical Dream (14/1) is one only a brave man would take right now. He showed promise on his reappearance but was ultimately comfortably beaten by Saldier and was poor this weekend at Leapardstown. Whilst the ground was probably just far too quick for him, he looked a bit of a fruitcake and very nearly came down too with a wild jump. He went out like a light from there and looked as though he perhaps could’ve even gone lame. I’d be very interested to see Mullins’ comments on him this week.
Sharjah (12/1) got his ground but with Cheltenham Tuesday always starting on the softer scale, it’s unlikely he’d get ground that quick again in March. That being said, off good to soft, he’s still afffective and is a very solid animal. For antepost purposed though, he’s hard to back with the great English weather potentially scuppernong his chances.
Honeysuckle won’t come here but to my mind would be good enough to win. She clearly doesn’t lack pace. It’s a shame that she’s 99.9% going to the Mares it seems. If the price is good enough, I’d be more than happy tying some money up NRNB on her just in case connections diverted.
Pentland Hills travelled well last time at Cheltenham but blew up. I’m dubious though as to him being good enough for a champion Hurdle - even a poor one. The 9/1 doesn’t interest me at all.
Of those at double figure prices,Call Me Lord is an admirable horse but isn’t a certainty to even run here. 16s doesn’t tempt me as an Each Way price at this stage because if he does run, he’d be double figures on the day anyway I imagine. Envoi Allen is as short as 8/1 (Bet365 - shocking stuff that) which is bonkers. He is at least treble that to even run here you’d think.Benie Des Dieux and Altior are next in the market but again won’t run. Fusil Raffles was awful the other day and I maintain Coeur Sublime is nowhere near good enough to place here. His price the other day for this before the leapardstown race was remarkable.
Melon, Thomas Darby and Laurina could divert here and I think the latter will. Her run the other day was too bad to be true. She jumped poorly throughout and never looked comfortable at the gallop. I could definitely see her end up here. The 14s is very short but the 33s is fair. Verdana Blue is the same price but is ground dependant and, like Sharjah, the watering of the track may cause problems. Silver Streak placed last year and is odds on to be running here again. Ballyandy has been running in the hurdles races this season respectably but lacks the class of others.
One at a wild price, and has shortened from the 66s I took last week, is Not So Sleepy at 40/1. He only won a handicap last time but ran all the way through the line. The open look to the market means it’ll be a bigger field than usual which won’t let him dominate from the front like that but he’s still an interesting one. I’d much prefer him than the likes of Ballyandy anyway. The only other one on my radar would be Supasundae NRNB when it comes in. Assuming he’s bigger than 20/1, he’d be a definite each way bet for me with the Money Back if/when he doesn’t run guarantee in place. If the ground was soft enough and he ran, in a big field with a likely strong pace to aim at, he could pick a few off late with his stamina proven over further. At 40/1, he’s another who I think is a fair price as it stands but is by no means a definite runner so I will have to be patient. Can’t be too long til NRNB anyway.
I’ll do a few of these betting market checks this week but to conclude, nothing stands out at this stage but Saldier is my most likely winner. Not So Sleepy and Supasundae are the two I like most at bigger prices. On the former at 66/1 (actually 70s with a boost) and will be backing Supasundae if the price isn’t too bad when NRNB comes in to play.
This market continues to look wide open and I keep finding myself tempted by some at big prices. I already have honeysuckle at 50s (great price but unlikely to run) and eldorado Allen and Quick Grabim at 66s (neither of which look great) the 2 that stand out now would be Labaik and Cornerstone Lad. I have no idea what's going on with Labaik but if he turned up and actually started the race he'd have a huge chance so might wait for a NRNB price for him. Cornerstone Lad I can't believe he is 50-1 he beat Silver Streak a similar price to the current favourite yet is 15 times the price.
With Christmas over, I like to take a look at the races and the market as they stand at the halfway mark of the season (or near enough halfway til Cheltenham anyway). Always good to see if there’s some hidden value at this stage or a lively outsider I haven’t yet added.
Champion Hurdle: Epatante heads the market at 3/1 after winning the Christmas Hurdle. The win was impressive I thought but Henderson seemed to think it was a bit of a free hit with her as an unknown quantity at Grade 1 level. So with that in mind, the money for her was fascinating. I can’t help but think it was a poor race and the very soft ground clearly suited her. In an open year, I can understand why the unexposed exciting ‘could be anything’ type leads the betting but 3/1 is simply terrible at this stage. It’s just too short. Simple as that.
To my mind, Saldier has the best form of the potential runners (assuming there’s no great escape from Buveur D’Air of course). Who’d have thought his fall when looking like beating Espoir Allen in February would go on to be such good form. His only run this year in front of [B]Klassical Dream and [B]Sharjah is decent enough you’d think too. The issue with him is that he missed Christmas with a minor injury but he’s clearly fragile. Do you want to be taking 6/1 on a fragile type like that? Depends on individual punters. If he runs, and gets a prep in, he’d be the most likely winner for me right now.
Klassical Dream (14/1) is one only a brave man would take right now. He showed promise on his reappearance but was ultimately comfortably beaten by Saldier and was poor this weekend at Leapardstown. Whilst the ground was probably just far too quick for him, he looked a bit of a fruitcake and very nearly came down too with a wild jump. He went out like a light from there and looked as though he perhaps could’ve even gone lame. I’d be very interested to see Mullins’ comments on him this week.
Saldier (12/1) got his ground but with Cheltenham Tuesday always starting on the softer scale, it’s unlikely he’d get ground that quick again in March. That being said, off good to soft, he’s still afffective and is a very solid animal. For antepost purposed though, he’s hard to back with the great English weather potentially scuppernong his chances.
Honeysuckle won’t come here but to my mind would be good enough to win. She clearly doesn’t lack pace. It’s a shame that she’s 99.9% going to the Mares it seems. If the price is good enough, I’d be more than happy tying some money up NRNB on her just in case connections diverted.
Pentland Hills travelled well last time at Cheltenham but blew up. I’m dubious though as to him being good enough for a champion Hurdle - even a poor one. The 9/1 doesn’t interest me at all.
Of those at double figure prices,Call Me Lord is an admirable horse but isn’t a certainty to even run here. 16s doesn’t tempt me as an Each Way price at this stage because if he does run, he’d be double figures on the day anyway I imagine. Envoi Allen is as short as 8/1 (Bet365 - shocking stuff that) which is bonkers. He is at least treble that to even run here you’d think.Benie Des Dieux and Altior are next in the market but again won’t run. Fusil Raffles was awful the other day and I maintain Coeur Sublime is nowhere near good enough to place here. His price the other day for this before the leapardstown race was remarkable.
Melon, Thomas Darby and Laurina could divert here and I think the latter will. Her run the other day was too bad to be true. She jumped poorly throughout and never looked comfortable at the gallop. I could definitely see her end up here. The 14s is very short but the 33s is fair. Verdana Blue is the same price but is ground dependant and, like Sharjah, the watering of the track may cause problems. Silver Streak placed last year and is odds on to be running here again. Ballyandy has been running in the hurdles races this season respectably but lacks the class of others.
One at a wild price, and has shortened from the 66s I took last week, is Not So Sleepy at 40/1. He only won a handicap last time but ran all the way through the line. The open look to the market means it’ll be a bigger field than usual which won’t let him dominate from the front like that but he’s still an interesting one. I’d much prefer him than the likes of Ballyandy anyway. The only other one on my radar would be Supasundae NRNB when it comes in. Assuming he’s bigger than 20/1, he’d be a definite each way bet for me with the Money Back if/when he doesn’t run guarantee in place. If the ground was soft enough and he ran, in a big field with a likely strong pace to aim at, he could pick a few off late with his stamina proven over further. At 40/1, he’s another who I think is a fair price as it stands but is by no means a definite runner so I will have to be patient. Can’t be too long til NRNB anyway.
I’ll do a few of these betting market checks this week but to conclude, nothing stands out at this stage but Saldier is my most likely winner. Not So Sleepy and Supasundae are the two I like most at bigger prices. On the former at 66/1 (actually 70s with a boost) and will be backing Supasundae if the price isn’t too bad when NRNB comes in to play.
A lot of that made sense, until the line...
"I'd much prefer him to Ballyandy"
If that's the marker then we're all doomed.
It's almost like your looking for shit at the bottom of a Bath full of shit. Which means you're probably gonna get covered in shit.
I'd say that if anyone hasn't got any of the current market leaders at fancier prices then wait till nearer the day and just try and back the winner from those.
Aside from the Irish champion hurdle there will be very little further evidence (aside from injuries) still to come.
It's almost like your looking for shit at the bottom of a Bath full of shit. Which means you're probably gonna get covered in shit.
I'd say that if anyone hasn't got any of the current market leaders at fancier prices then wait till nearer the day and just try and back the winner from those.
Aside from the Irish champion hurdle there will be very little further evidence (aside from injuries) still to come.
The only reason I compared him with Ballyandy is because they are both the same price. Apologies, I should’ve explained that point better.
Probably unpopular. But if theres one to come back into alot shorter price, that would be fusil raffles.
He has never ran on ground anywhere near that soft, and just ran like a drain. i wouldnt be pleased at all if I was on at short prices. But at current prices, I'd be willing to wipe that run off, where he just without doubt, diddnt run his race.
Im not saying hes a sure fire CH winner, but i'd give him every chance, to win either the kingwell or the contenders hurdle, and Go back to the sort of price that he was.
Last edited by Scooby91; 30 December 2019, 08:49 AM.
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