Champion Hurdle 2020

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Think I’d like to see Fusil again first, has he really beaten much so far?

[ComplyOrDie]

Im pretty tempted to back Fusil Raffles after todays news but just not sure if a 5 year old can win a champion hurdle these days..... (sorry if there are any stats boys who took on ED, for age related reasons ). Going to take the 16/1

That'll be me But you can't back em all and this is one area I stick to when deciding what to back.

As you've mentioned the age thing, just a brief reminder of the past 10 running's of the CH for 5 year olds:

2019 - 10 runners - 1 5yo - Finished 1st

2018 - 11 runners - 1 5yo - PU

2017 - 11 runners - 2 5yo's - 4th & 6th

2016 - 12 runners - 4 5yo's - 5th, 7th, 10th & PU

2015 - 8 runners - 2 5yo's - 6th & 7th

2014 - 9 runners - 2 5yo's - 6th & F

2013 - 9 runners - 2 5yo's - 3rd & UR

2012 - 10 runners - 3 5yo's - 5th, 7th & 10th

2011 - 11 runners - 2 5yo's - 6th & 11th

2010 - 12 runners - 3 5yo's - 3rd, 5th & 8th

Obviously this does not tell the complete story, as many ran with credit based on their prices, but only three 5 year old's in them past 10 running's have started below 10/1, and all 3 won Triumph Hurdles the previous season, best finishing position of them 3 was Zaynar who finished 3rd in 2010.

Based purely on the past 10 running's we have the following for 5yo's:

10% win success (from 10 races)
4.54% win success (from all 5 yo's in previous 10 runnings)
9.52% place success (of remaining runners)

Overall win/place success from all runners is 13.63%

Whilst 5 year old's are clearly not a reliable angle in to a Champion Hurdle, Fusil Raffles has been raced much more lightly than previous challengers, so still holds that 'could be anything' tag for me. Despite my ramblings above, I do find myself very much drawn in to him, now we take Espoir D'Allen out of the equation, though as previously noted elsewhere, there will need to be significant improvement, on last seasons form lines, to be able to challenge Klassical Dream still.

[Saxon Warrior]

I love stats, used them for years to sift through potential winners, but I have had more winners and profits since I stoped using them for final definitive betting decisions.

I prefer to go with my view of the chances for a horse to win a certain race, factor in their price, and then look at stats to see if there is anything that could alter my thinking. Usually the answer is no, all stats are broken eventually.

I must admit that I am happy if my own view on a horse is vindicated by a stat, but it doesn’t have to be. Sometimes it’s better to go against the considered view than follow it - I am more than happy for my selections not to be chosen by any of the pundits in the Racing Post tipsters box for example.

[billymag]

That'll be me But you can't back em all and this is one area I stick to when deciding what to back.

As you've mentioned the age thing, just a brief reminder of the past 10 running's of the CH for 5 year olds:

2019 - 10 runners - 1 5yo - Finished 1st

2018 - 11 runners - 1 5yo - PU

2017 - 11 runners - 2 5yo's - 4th & 6th

2016 - 12 runners - 4 5yo's - 5th, 7th, 10th & PU

2015 - 8 runners - 2 5yo's - 6th & 7th

2014 - 9 runners - 2 5yo's - 6th & F

2013 - 9 runners - 2 5yo's - 3rd & UR

2012 - 10 runners - 3 5yo's - 5th, 7th & 10th

2011 - 11 runners - 2 5yo's - 6th & 11th

2010 - 12 runners - 3 5yo's - 3rd, 5th & 8th

Obviously this does not tell the complete story, as many ran with credit based on their prices, but only three 5 year old's in them past 10 running's have started below 10/1, and all 3 won Triumph Hurdles the previous season, best finishing position of them 3 was Zaynar who finished 3rd in 2010.

Based purely on the past 10 running's we have the following for 5yo's:

10% win success (from 10 races)
4.54% win success (from all 5 yo's in previous 10 runnings)
9.52% place success (of remaining runners)

Overall win/place success from all runners is 13.63%

Whilst 5 year old's are clearly not a reliable angle in to a Champion Hurdle, Fusil Raffles has been raced much more lightly than previous challengers, so still holds that 'could be anything' tag for me. Despite my ramblings above, I do find myself very much drawn in to him, now we take Espoir D'Allen out of the equation, though as previously noted elsewhere, there will need to be significant improvement, on last seasons form lines, to be able to challenge Klassical Dream still.

It was only tongue in cheek, just a bit of fun.

[ComplyOrDie]

It was only tongue in cheek, just a bit of fun.

Haha I know

[Quevega]

I liked the five year old stat, as it had some logic behind it (horse still maturing etc).
And this years renewal in particular did not look winnable for a five year old as the field looked pretty good on paper.
But shit happens and now I have to consider them for sure, and the stats COD's put up aren't that bad really.

[BigChaang]

I took the 50-1 on Fusil Raffles for the Ch. Hdl before he won at Punchestown , Just a small, e/way., bit of fun bet.

[Kevloaf]

More 5 year old (Fusil Raffles) winners of the Champion Hurdle than 9 year olds (Buveur D'air)

but as I've just highlighted on the ante post thread, 16/1 for Fusil Raffles is no where near what I'd want.


He beat Fakir D'oudaries 2.75L off levels and Klassical Dream beat the same horse 11L giving him 8 lbs

Fakir getting to within a neck of Pentland Hills doesn't frank the form of Fusil Raffles either.




Awful bet. 50/1 that BC has, I'd consider.

For literally half the price of Fusil Raffles at 16/1 you can have a dual Champion Hurdler at 8/1.

No brainer. ***I haven't backed either as it stands***

[The King Pimm]

Whilst admittedly a bit pissed from watching the football and leaving myself open for mocking was there another horse owned by JP McManus with a very similar name to Espoir D’Allen?? I’ve just looked at his previous form and he/she has only raced at Cheltenham once before and the reason I never bet on this horse at this years CH was because I had bet on it 3 occasions previous and it came no where including the previous Cheltenham Mares Hurdle and according to his/her form it’s only lost once and raced at Cheltenham once?? Am I being a complete Terry Fuckwit or has JP McManus owed another mare with a similar name or am I texting from my pretend phone in my cell in Shutter Island??

[The King Pimm]

Ignore the above, I think it’s another Terry Fuckwit moment

[Middle_Of_March]

More 5 year old (Fusil Raffles) winners of the Champion Hurdle than 9 year olds (Buveur D'air)

but as I've just highlighted on the ante post thread, 16/1 for Fusil Raffles is no where near what I'd want.


He beat Fakir D'oudaries 2.75L off levels and Klassical Dream beat the same horse 11L giving him 8 lbs

Fakir getting to within a neck of Pentland Hills doesn't frank the form of Fusil Raffles either.




Awful bet. 50/1 that BC has, I'd consider.

For literally half the price of Fusil Raffles at 16/1 you can have a dual Champion Hurdler at 8/1.

No brainer. ***I haven't backed either as it stands***

Whilst I agree I’d want slightly bigger than 16s personally, I can see why he’s that price.

Asides from Klassical Dream, there’s an awful lot of horses where you can put holes in their form/chances at this early stage as well as the fact the champion is out of the race (99% rather than 100% isn’t it?). So with Fusil Raffles having won a grade 1, has a very good profile and is a ‘could be anything horse’, I can see why he’s as short as he is.

A fair few of us love a ‘could be anything’ horse and whilst I try to stay awake backing them because they’re so often the wrong price, that price is on potential rather than form. Anyone taking 16s isn’t doing it because he beat Fakir D’Oudairies 2.75 lengths but rather because he’s a possible improver who could be good enough to win a Champion Hurdle.

Personally, I think Summerville Boy is the perfect example. His form, even with the Supreme, suggested he’d need to improve but he had a lot of potential to become a Champion Hurdle horse. So a year ago over the summer his price slowly shortened for the CH. There’s no way that 12/1 was a good price but I can see why he was as short as that with people looking to take Buveur D’Air on.

[billymag]

More 5 year old (Fusil Raffles) winners of the Champion Hurdle than 9 year olds (Buveur D'air)

but as I've just highlighted on the ante post thread, 16/1 for Fusil Raffles is no where near what I'd want.


He beat Fakir D'oudaries 2.75L off levels and Klassical Dream beat the same horse 11L giving him 8 lbs

Fakir getting to within a neck of Pentland Hills doesn't frank the form of Fusil Raffles either.




Awful bet. 50/1 that BC has, I'd consider.

For literally half the price of Fusil Raffles at 16/1 you can have a dual Champion Hurdler at 8/1.

No brainer. ***I haven't backed either as it stands***

I see your above reasoning but ill raise with:

Ran twice in his 4 year old UK career this is the racing post comments -absolutely hosed up on this belated debut for Nicky Henderson and stamped himself a definite player for next month's Triumph Hurdle - smashing the course record in the process.

Interesting that Nicky went on to say - That was a nice surprise from FUSIL RAFFLES, who has had a horrible winter, but is a lovely horse. He was quite sick in the middle of it - he didn't have flu - but just couldn't throw it off. He really hasn't done a lot of work and Daryl came to school him on Thursday just to decide which of the two he'd ride. I said, 'I quite liked this horse, but hadn't done much with him.

Next start ran in a grade 1 and won travelling like a good horse and pretty comfortably put Fakir away even though that one came to have a go. Also think its worth noting that Fakir didnt have a very smooth prep going into the festival, in fact some people publicly stated, (people who i respect) that he was going to be pulled for the Supreme, so im not sure id take that form with KD literally and the weight allowance is also not really relevant as its weight for age. Im not saying that Klassical shouldnt be fav and I think like many he looks top class, but 16/1 on FR looks a really solid ew play, the price isnt something to get excited about but it looks a nice bet for me.

[Kevloaf]

Whilst I agree I’d want slightly bigger than 16s personally, I can see why he’s that price.

Asides from Klassical Dream, there’s an awful lot of horses where you can put holes in their form/chances at this early stage as well as the fact the champion is out of the race (99% rather than 100% isn’t it?). So with Fusil Raffles having won a grade 1, has a very good profile and is a ‘could be anything horse’, I can see why he’s as short as he is.

A fair few of us love a ‘could be anything’ horse and whilst I try to stay awake backing them because they’re so often the wrong price, that price is on potential rather than form. Anyone taking 16s isn’t doing it because he beat Fakir D’Oudairies 2.75 lengths but rather because he’s a possible improver who could be good enough to win a Champion Hurdle.

Personally, I think Summerville Boy is the perfect example. His form, even with the Supreme, suggested he’d need to improve but he had a lot of potential to become a Champion Hurdle horse. So a year ago over the summer his price slowly shortened for the CH. There’s no way that 12/1 was a good price but I can see why he was as short as that with people looking to take Buveur D’Air on.

Yes I see what you're saying, and Billymag too.

Personally though if I knew something was the wrong price for 'perhaps' the right reasons (as in he "could be anything") I'd hold off.


If he wins the CH, I still don't believe 16/1 was a good price.

Some may struggle with that concept, but that's very clearly how I see it.

[ComplyOrDie]

Yes I see what you're saying, and Billymag too.

Personally though if I knew something was the wrong price for 'perhaps' the right reasons (as in he "could be anything") I'd hold off.


If he wins the CH, I still don't believe 16/1 was a good price.

Some may struggle with that concept, but that's very clearly how I see it.

I'm stuck in 2 minds.

I backed Laurina @ 12's & then 8's and she had beat less than Fusil Raffles, however, Laurina was clearly turned out to be a mistake, even though I expected her to, at the very least, place. I don't want to be drawn into that 'could be anything' category, but I actually think I'd be more gutted and annoyed should he turn out to be, say, the next Buveur D'air, and I didn't go in, so I think I am going to have to have a 'punt' and go in small first off, wait for him to make his reappearance and see his well being before going in again.

Obviously it's not an easy call, I have a case for and against him, and see both points of view.

[Quevega]

Yes I see what you're saying, and Billymag too.

Personally though if I knew something was the wrong price for 'perhaps' the right reasons (as in he "could be anything") I'd hold off.


If he wins the CH, I still don't believe 16/1 was a good price.

Some may struggle with that concept, but that's very clearly how I see it.

It's not a good price. It's probably provable by analytical fact. But I'm not clever enough to show my workings so going on instinct, like you.
It could turn out well in the end though (all winning bets have to start somewhere, even if it's from the wrong start line/point).

I always try and place a bet that I think I'm getting value with (not always easy to judge).
But ultimately it's winners that matter (or places).

BTW, noticed the value has gone on Altior (Hills dropped him to 4's).
Only took one farty wispy romantic glazy eyed comment from Nicky and they've began to duck it.