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Appreciate the info but Band of Outlaws is going to be a 5 year old who just lost to Thomas Hobson - admittedly race fit - and got battered at Aintree.
I think he’s a handicapper this year and maybe something next year
Appreciate the info but Band of Outlaws is going to be a 5 year old who just lost to Thomas Hobson - admittedly race fit - and got battered at Aintree.
I think he’s a handicapper this year and maybe something next year
Agree with BOO post-Festival form, but would add that many horses lose form post-Festival, and I don’t normally take Aintree form (c/w Cheltenham form) as robust when assessing the next Festival.
This months as this months Yankee is focussed on Festival form I looked through all 28 results, and gathered info to mention that all five horses were above average performers in their races. With a 40/1 shot and a 50/1 shot in the five there will be a lot of doubt as to whether they are good enough. What they all have is very strong comparative ratings from their Festival runs this year, and age on their side to give them chance to produce it again, if not improve on it.
It’s nformation for the melting pot for the forum to debate, and more importantly to put up alternative selections.
On BOO we will no more next week after the Galway Hurdle. I have never dismissed a Champion Hurdle horse on age, that view enabled me to collect on Espoir D’Allen at 25/1 this year.
I think that the only issue I have is that RPR is your chosen measure of quality as it's generally considered to run a poor third to OR and Timeform. However, all three are just subjective expert opinion so everyone is free to use them as they wish. Indeed, using RPRs Shanning would be looking good for the Galway Hurdle so I'm quite happy in that circumstance.
Absolutely right to be looking at horses that improve through the season to peak at Cheltenham and sort of forgivable for a falling off after but it has to be said that A Plus Tard was very disappointing at Punchestown. Hopefully he'll be back on song in the Clonmel Oil or Durkan but he's currently rated below the likes of Cadmium, Ballyoisin and Duc Des Genievres and I wouldn't see him as particular value at the moment.
The Close Bros was A Plus Tard's best RPR by some way and I'd want to see him repeat or better it before trusting it as none of the placed horses came out and ran to the same standard. The same goes for the Fred Winter and Band Of Outlaws.
To be fair, looking this early you'd probably be able to say the same about most of this year's winners and the argument is logically sound. It's probably just my natural aversion to backing anything this early that makes me look at the downside.
Like all rating systems, RPR depends on which horse you use as your base measure. OR is the same which is why winners of some big races like the King George and the Triumph have been consistently over-rated. But that's another story....
ROKSANA Mares Hurdle 8/1 - Maybe overlooked as BDD fell at last but Roksana’s rating of 150 was decent c/w prior years (152, 150, 146, 149, 147, 148, 140). She then improved to an RPR of 156 in the Aintree Hurdle, which is the same rating given to BDD for her Chelters fall.
I personally wouldn't give merit to an RPR at Aintree being equal to Cheltenham (in terms of the Festival next year). THe higher rating elsewhere may be credited to the fact she was running elsewhere... I don't see the improvement coming for Roksana myself - she is a single figure price now, but I'd guess she'd be an each way play on the day of the race, so no interest ante post at her price for me.
She's definitely the kind of horse I'd want to have a poor start to the season, and get forgotten about before coming a 'sexy/sneaky' type of tip in the build up to the festival again. (Wishful thinking)
A PLUS TARD Ryanair Chase 20/1 - absolutely took apart the Close Brothers with an RPR of 165 for his 16 length win. Prior winners had put up ratings of 147, 149, 152, 148, 147, 154, 157, 146, 152. A decent price at 20s given Defi Du Seuil put up an RPR of 164 to win the JLT and is 8/1 fav for the Ryanair.
A horse that'll divide opinion for good reason. Right now I'm going to be a knocker, beliving that the Close Brothers win was too good to be taken literally. A case of me not beliving what I've seen (Just like Cyrname) - May well be proved wrong again as with that horse, but playing the numbers game, it seems like a huge anomoly and although 20/1 is fair... I am not in a rush right now. The gap between novice handicap and open company grade 1 is surely too big?
BAND OF OUTLAWS 40/1 Champion Hurdle - BOO’s RPR of 147 in winning the Fred Winter was above any other winner in the last ten years (135, 137, 137, 1330, 130, 140, 133, 121, 146). Runs in the Galway Hurdle, 6/1 fav, next week and a win could propel him into a plan for a Champion Hurdle campaign given his performance at the track last March.
It could... and even if he doesn't win he could still have a Champion Hurdle campaign... Joseph certainly doesn't play things too cautiously in terms of grade 1 targets. He'll take his chance. I'll very rarely knock a 40/1 poke, he isn't in my plans at the moment, and the fact more 5yo's have won a CH than 9yo's over recent years means he may be under estimated - but I'm happy to take a watching brief at this early stage, prior to him "winning" the Galway Hurdle.
SHANTOU FLYER 16/1 Foxhunters - 2nd in the race this year, ridden by his owner. His rating of 149 would have been good enough to win the previous seven years Foxhunters (141, 145, 135, 148, 131, 148, 148). He is 9 which is younger than any of the last five winners and could be back for another shot next year. He won the Plate in 2017 and was 2nd in the Ultimata in 2018. His Cheltenham runs away from the Festival are also strong.
Fair price - made the case for Hazel Hill elsewhere a few weeks ago at 10/1 but can definitely see me having both of these backed at their prices.
EARLY DOORS 50/1 Stayers Hurdle - put up an RPR of 156 when winning the Martin Pipe from Dallas Des Pictons. Prior winners have produced some top performers in the future but none got as big a rating as Early Doors. Ratings were 153, 145, 146, 147 (Killultagh Vic), 153 (Don Poli,) 154, 147, 143 (Sir Des Champs), 146. ED was 3rd in the race in 2018 so does love the track. Well worth a pop at the Stayers Hurdle even if form on flatter tracks mid-season in slower run races hasn’t led to victories.
Like this one too, adds to the case jono made.
WIll probably back this in the coming days.
Samcro - JLT
Envoi Allen - Ballymore
Benie Des Dieux - Mares
Klassical Dream - Champion Hurdle
Paisley Park - Stayers
Carefully Selected - NH Chase
Minella Indo - RSA
That would be my seven for us to vote from at this stage from this thread but we’ve already got a few of these in other ones so other suggestions would be good before any voting.
I’ll put it up to a 48 hour vote tomorrow night if no more suggestions come in.
Not sure ‘any race’ horses can be put in multiples and for me Samcro could run in half a dozen races or stay at home.
But as always, happy to follow the masses...
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