Triumph Hurdle 2020

[Saxon Warrior]

Nice case SW particularly as my cupboard is bare for this race and a big price e/w outsider is just what I'm after....added

That’s okay Rhinestone, check his hurdles debut Video out, it’s the usual Davy Russell quality piece of work.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

That’s okay Rhinestone, check his hurdles debut Video out, it’s the usual Davy Russell quality piece of work.

Watched it before placing the bet, looked like there was more to come

[Saxon Warrior]

Watched it before placing the bet, looked like there was more to come

The fav Millswyn blew out in the race (good flat form, beating Il Paradiso) and the rest of them don’t have great form, but it was a good transition race to hurdles, and with one more hurdle run he could be Gordon’s main hope in the race, unless he moves Tronador or Recent Revelations from possible Boodles duty.

[Birds Nest]

That’s okay Rhinestone, check his hurdles debut Video out, it’s the usual Davy Russell quality piece of work.

Nice write up SW, much like Hendo my cupboard is a bit bare for this one too, just what i needed ....

[Redbridge]

Does anyone really feel the the front three in the betting will be fighting out a lead, to my way of thinking Allmankind will set enough pace to the race that will be quick enough for the rest of the field, Goshen will be better for a lead as long as the pace is fast enough as at Sandown recently when he went on because they tried slowing the pace from the front and was hoping to make it a sprint but Goshen was having none of it and went on.
Aspire Tower took a lead in his first run until the early faller lit him up causing him to move left and join the loose horse, he was a real novice and you thought the early exertions would take there toll but he quickened from the front and posted the best 2m time of the afternoon.
His next race moving up in grade was run at his own tempo which stretched the rest of the field but I honestly think they will happily take a lead as long as the leader is doing enough and not hanging around.
So for me Allmankind will run his front running race but he will not have tasted such a bunch of rivals that will not allow him to dominate as in previous races and its a long way home after seeing off challenger after challenger and there is always one that has saved enough.
Dan Skelton see's Aspire Tower as the danger to his own horse and the Irish are quietly confident about their market leader who could be another Our Conner.

[charlie]

Does anyone really feel the the front three in the betting will be fighting out a lead, to my way of thinking Allmankind will set enough pace to the race that will be quick enough for the rest of the field, Goshen will be better for a lead as long as the pace is fast enough as at Sandown recently when he went on because they tried slowing the pace from the front and was hoping to make it a sprint but Goshen was having none of it and went on.
Aspire Tower took a lead in his first run until the early faller lit him up causing him to move left and join the loose horse, he was a real novice and you thought the early exertions would take there toll but he quickened from the front and posted the best 2m time of the afternoon.
His next race moving up in grade was run at his own tempo which stretched the rest of the field but I honestly think they will happily take a lead as long as the leader is doing enough and not hanging around.
So for me Allmankind will run his front running race but he will not have tasted such a bunch of rivals that will not allow him to dominate as in previous races and its a long way home after seeing off challenger after challenger and there is always one that has saved enough.
Dan Skelton see's Aspire Tower as the danger to his own horse and the Irish are quietly confident about their market leader who could be another Our Conner.

He hasn't tasted any rivals yet

Probably wait till after the weekend to talk potential tactics, but I think Aspire Tower just wins on the weekend (might see if I can find the DRF/Cheltenham double price to cover). Keen to see how Cerberus gets on vs him. If Aspire Tower beats Cerberus as comfortably as Allmankind did then that will be very interesting indeed.

(I am not mentioning Goshen as the other of the top three as I don't think his jumping is good enough and there are just too many question marks at the current price for him to merit consideration)

The question I keep asking myself re Allmankind (mark now 148) is (and I open this up to the forum) - 'how is it possible to race as keenly as that on heavy ground around Chepstow, clock an impressive time and hit the line as powerfully as that without being a complete weapon?' (or as Dan says 'freak').

Have I mentioned I like Allmankind yet

[Saxon Warrior]

Having three tearaways dominate the market is extremely unusual for any race.

I think whatever we choose in the race, it makes sense to have something outside of those three, to get a decent price, and one that travels well without the risk of getting involved early on with the hot-heads up-front.

Who knows how the three will fare in the Triumph but it can’t be as big as 20/1 that they will all chase each other and test each other too early, and something can come and take them.

That’s why Ive covered my Allmankind bet with Mick Pastor and Battle of Wills at big odds.

[charlie]

Having three tearaways dominate the market is extremely unusual for any race.

I think whatever we choose in the race, it makes sense to have something outside of those three, to get a decent price, and one that travels well without the risk of getting involved early on with the hot-heads up-front.

Who knows how the three will fare in the Triumph but it can’t be as big as 20/1 that they will all chase each other and test each other too early, and something can come and take them.

That’s why Ive covered my Allmankind bet with Mick Pastor and Battle of Wills at big odds.

I thought you made an excellent case re Battle of Wills SW. Love stuff like that, really valuable forum contribution

[Middle_Of_March]

I've been having a look over this one & I like it at a big price, they think a fair amount of him by the looks of it, was a pretty expensive buy too (115k stated), has never been out of the first 3 in any race (albeit mainly all on flat) & intended to run at the DRF. It won't be 40/1 if it turns over or gets near Aspire Tower. Not all firms at 40 either currently...

A couple have it priced for the double this weekend & Triumph, best of which is Billies at 80/1, 92/1 if you can get the boost. Added outright for the Triumph too.

I’ve had a point at 92/1 too

[ComplyOrDie]

I’ve had a point at 92/1 too

Yep, me too, just now.

[jack1092]

Fav will be hard to beat- but worth noting Cromwell said Wolf Prince would be entered here but more likely to go for a rated hurdle at Naas. Said he didn't want to face fav again + horse a more FW typpe, wonder has this changed?
2nd + 3rd not ran after Musselburgh yet, but 4th managed to win a poor maiden hurdle next time out.

If WP does miss this, Ceberus aside, i'd like to think we'd have a good ew chance.

WP+Ceberus show up.

Little blue on oddschecker for NDN....Interested to see if we make it 2nd fav before the off..

[Penzance]

He hasn't tasted any rivals yet

Probably wait till after the weekend to talk potential tactics, but I think Aspire Tower just wins on the weekend (might see if I can find the DRF/Cheltenham double price to cover). Keen to see how Cerberus gets on vs him. If Aspire Tower beats Cerberus as comfortably as Allmankind did then that will be very interesting indeed.

(I am not mentioning Goshen as the other of the top three as I don't think his jumping is good enough and there are just too many question marks at the current price for him to merit consideration)

The question I keep asking myself re Allmankind (mark now 148) is (and I open this up to the forum) - 'how is it possible to race as keenly as that on heavy ground around Chepstow, clock an impressive time and hit the line as powerfully as that without being a complete weapon?' (or as Dan says 'freak').

Have I mentioned I like Allmankind yet

I really, really like Allmankind. Don’t know exactly why but my gut draws me to him more than any other horse (bar envoi) for this years meeting. Last time I had this feeling was big bucks first winning year. I hope my intuition is the same!!!

[Redbridge]

At a pre Cheltenham forum a couple of years back in Holborn and my group got talking with another and I asked the question why we were all here and best answer was "We want to hear good things said about the horse we have backed"

[charlie]

I really, really like Allmankind. Don’t know exactly why but my gut draws me to him more than any other horse (bar envoi) for this years meeting. Last time I had this feeling was big bucks first winning year. I hope my intuition is the same!!!

Me too. Very good horses have that effect

[Saxon Warrior]

At a pre Cheltenham forum a couple of years back in Holborn and my group got talking with another and I asked the question why we were all here and best answer was "We want to hear good things said about the horse we have backed"

no-one open to new ideas?