Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

[BigChaang]

I have backed Lost in Translation for the Gold cup , but i honestly thought he would .
struggle yesterday against B.D.M at Haydock.
Don't want to get too carried away , but his form is stacking up .
and it's not like he hasn't got any experience at Cheltenham is it.

[archie]

His experience is only of going up the hill once. You can, of course, say the same about Kemboy (and it was said of many of the previous winners) but the truth is that until they've been up the hill twice, no-one can be sure that they can. As I said earlier, his pedigree isn't packed with stamina and his 3 mile form is on flat tracks. We're unlikely to get proof either way until March.

[Quevega]

He's ran twice at cheltenham archie, slightly different results, but similar.

[Craigy14]

Thought it was a great performance by lostintranslation yesterday. Robbie power is firing in the winners of late, especially for Tizzard. He came there cruising 2 out and had he not hammered through the second last think it would have been a bit more cosy than the winning margin was, power had to go for him after that mistake. I know we won’t know until he runs in the gc but from what we have seen I don’t think I could be against him staying.

[archie]

He's ran twice at cheltenham archie, slightly different results, but similar.

2m4f is only once up the whole hill.

[Kevloaf]

LIT is 5/1 (beat BDM 1.5L)
Al Boum Photo is 8/1 (beat BDM 6.25L)


On the line through Bristol De Mai, Al Boum Photo is a better bet.


The BDM is a better horse at Haydock theory may be true, but wasn't in quantifiable evidence yesterday?






Just something I'd ponder if approaching this race fresh.

The assumed improvement for LIT and the fact ABP hasn't run yet are factored into those prices aren't they.

[TC2]

LiT was my early stab at the gold cup like a few on here, but i wouldnt go overboard whatsoever on that performance yesterday. BDM has gone nowhere near quick enough in front to make it enough of a test. I dont think Daryl Jacob has ever been great from the front end. He had Native River to push him along last year. The KG is shaping up to be a fascinating race

[Scooby91]

LIT is 5/1 (beat BDM 1.5L)
Al Boum Photo is 8/1 (beat BDM 6.25L)


On the line through Bristol De Mai, Al Boum Photo is a better bet.


The BDM is a better horse at Haydock theory may be true, but wasn't in quantifiable evidence yesterday?






Just something I'd ponder if approaching this race fresh.

The assumed improvement for LIT and the fact ABP hasn't run yet are factored into those prices aren't they.

Al boum will now be my sole hope this year. If I could cash DW, for my free bets back, i would.
I see no reason why ABP cant do the double. He doesn't have the miles on the clock like previous winners, I'd fancy him as a fresh horse to out battle kemboy and LIT. As Al boum finds plenty of the bridle.

[archie]

LiT was my early stab at the gold cup like a few on here, but i wouldnt go overboard whatsoever on that performance yesterday. BDM has gone nowhere near quick enough in front to make it enough of a test. I dont think Daryl Jacob has ever been great from the front end. He had Native River to push him along last year. The KG is shaping up to be a fascinating race

Just to back that up, yesterday Lostintranslation was 1.1 sec slower than Crievehill in the handicap chase (won by 10l carrying 11-12).

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

As the season goes on it may become clear that Bristol is not the same horse this year and is in decline. So an impressive betfair chase win means he is entitled to be considered a contender now for the gold cup but the form may turn out to not be as strong as it first appears.
Im sure Elegant Escape would have won that race had he taken part however.

[Istabraq]

LIT is 5/1 (beat BDM 1.5L)
Al Boum Photo is 8/1 (beat BDM 6.25L)


On the line through Bristol De Mai, Al Boum Photo is a better bet.

Fairly standard response from bookmakers when a horse runs well and one is sitting in his box.

There's an argument Anabale Fly represents even better value at 33/1...

[Saxon Warrior]

Lostintranslation did win over 3M1&1/2F at Haydock. I would imagine that there aren’t many Second Season chasers that have put up an RPR of 177 before the end of November at the start of their second season.

RPRs of Gold Cup winners and their best rating when lining up in their Gold Cup win.
Al Boum Photo 178 to win the Gold Cup in 2019 (171 best before it)
Native River 177 to win the Gold Cup In 2018 (174 best before it)
Sizing John 171 to win the Gold Cup In 2017 (168 best before it)
Don Cossack 182 to win the Gold Cup In 2016 (181 best before it)
Coneygree 178 to win the Gold Cup In 2015 (168 best before it)
Lord Windermere 168 to win the Gold Cup In 2014 (157 best before it)
Bobs Worth 179 to win the Gold Cup In 2013 (174 best before it)
Synchronised 171 to win the Gold Cup In 2012 (171 best before it)

On these figures he is already good enough after one run in open company (after his graduation race start this season) to win the Gold Cup with little or no improvement. He would start the race with a better rating than any of the previous eight race winners barring Don Cossack.

I wouldn’t have anything in front of him in the market for the Gold Cup.

[archie]

We all only use RPRs to prove a case when we're short of other arguments.

Given Tellwright's record, I'd want notarised proof of the race distance but Haydock's demands are nothing like Cheltenham. Lostintranslation is worth his place at the top of the market because people are of a mind to accept the price 14 weeks ahead of time. Surely, no-one would claim that his is the best form on offer, merely the best this season so far. If Kemboy and Al Boum Photo are as impressive on reappearance, will they be 3/1 as well?

[Lostintranslation]

Why quote 3/1 when there's 5/1 and plenty of 9/2 available.

"We all only use the shortest price to prove a case when we're short of other arguments"

[Quevega]