Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

[Kevloaf]

From the Gold Cup run he has to find about 2 stone.

In reality, his RSA run was overrated and that was compounded by him going up 2lb without leaving his stable thanks to Monalee's run in the Savills.

If his RSA win was over rated, what was ABP's run in the same race?

The OR's or RPR's or whichever ratings used are how you try and find the winner I think that's so hard, as they're only ever available after the event.

I know you did some looking into how much horses improve on average, but that's not a specific science and there would be countless examples of exceptions to the rule too (not that it is a rule).

Fair bit of guesswork involved int there ?

Loads.

[Middle_Of_March]

Repeating old ground here, but that trainer has a couple of festival wins to his name... I don't see how that's a negative to the horses chances.

He does. That could be that PP is just a very good horse and he won DESPITE Patrick Kelly training him. But I still don’t think he’s a positive against the training ability of Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins and Elliott. I’d even prefer Tizzard training a Gold Cup horse than Kelly.

He seemed to have no idea what he wanted to do last season with PP. He went from campaigning the horse aggressively two seasons in a row to suddenly wrapping the horse in cotton wool and finding excuse after excuse not to run.

[Quevega]

Repeating old ground here, but that trainer has a couple of festival wins to his name... I don't see how that's a negative to the horses chances.

His percentage runner to win ratio is probably better than most. (at the fez)

[Kevloaf]

He seemed to have no idea what he wanted to do last season with PP. He went from campaigning the horse aggressively two seasons in a row to suddenly wrapping the horse in cotton wool and finding excuse after excuse not to run.

Is there not a chance that he was FORCED to do that?


Absence of the facts regarding WHY there was a change means neither of us know.


I'm saying I think he was forced to do it, which in my opinion makes more sense than him going against a winning formula?

Also, I assume he's not a moron, and if he did get it wrong last year, I'd say that he's more likely to revert to what worked before...

[Kevloaf]

He does. That could be that PP is just a very good horse and he won DESPITE Patrick Kelly training him. But I still don’t think he’s a positive against the training ability of Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins and Elliott. I’d even prefer Tizzard training a Gold Cup horse than Kelly.

Tizzard is a joke The other 4 you named are 4 of the best 10 trainers ever probably.

I'd prefer Pat Kelly, Joseph O'Brien, Harry Fry, Olly Murphy and Dan Skelton over Tizzard.... but it doesn't mean Lostintranslation won't win

[Scooby91]

Tizzard is a joke The other 4 you named are 4 of the best 10 trainers ever probably.

I'd prefer Pat Kelly, Joseph O'Brien, Harry Fry, Olly Murphy and Dan Skelton over Tizzard.... but it doesn't mean Lostintranslation won't win

I dont rate tizzard as a race planner. (More than happy to take up the role if hes reading this) but, he must be a very good trainer of horses. He has nowhere near the numbers in training, but he still gets them to the big races.

[luisgarciaisgod]

Tizzard might be a joke but he's a Gold Cup winnng trainer.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Tizzard might be a joke but he's a Gold Cup winnng trainer.

I think he might have the 2020 gold cup winner on his hands as well. I just can't bring myself to back him at the price.

[Kevloaf]

I dont rate tizzard as a race planner. (More than happy to take up the role if hes reading this) but, he must be a very good trainer of horses. He has nowhere near the numbers in training, but he still gets them to the big races.

Big races in April usually, when everyone is trying to win back what they've lost on his horses who've flopped at the festival



He's alright, I just find him to be SO over rated. People talk as if he's a positive and it's just because he's different. The media love the story about how he is a cow farmer, and he's got a little accent and although they're expanding it's all about how he's a martyr for the little guys who want to break into the big league.

Ultimately, he had Thistlecrack who was a freakishly good horse, Cue Card.... Native River... but would anyone think another trainer wouldn't have had the success with those horses? We'll never know of course but I don't see Tizzard as a positive.

[luisgarciaisgod]

I'm big on Lostintranslation for the Gold Cup this year, backed him for it after he got beaten in the JLT at 25s because it was clear as day he wanted further. Also think the demolition of Topofthegame at Aintree is somewhat understated. Full of excuses for TOTG but it wasn't as if LIT was coming off a leisurely stroll at the festival either.

[JackieMoon33]

I'm subconsciously a Tizzard fan boi so leave him alone

[Quevega]

I'm subconsciously a Tizzard fan boi so leave him alone

But now you're aware

[jack1092]

Given his age and experience, it's fair to conclude that PP had most of his improvement in his first chasing season. His hurdle run last season was on a par with the same race the previous season so there's no real evidence that he could have run to even 170 in the Gold Cup and 10/3 was just a bonkers price.
He has to make up at least 10lb on ABP to be competitive and, being a year older, that is simply unlikely at best. The current price is about right.

Archie, how have you come up to this conclusion? You have 2 races out of novice company to go off, one over hurdles and one where he clearly wasn't A1 over fences.....The hurdle run if using RPRs was better than the year before, not on par + given one was off a 53 day break and the other a 316 day break, it's weak evidence.

I do agree though he's another year older and as we are in the dark on his setbacks or whatever they were- it would be hard to be confident he'll properly bounce back over fences. Probably why if he were mine he'd go to the stayers probably.

[archie]

Archie, how have you come up to this conclusion? You have 2 races out of novice company to go off, one over hurdles and one where he clearly wasn't A1 over fences.....The hurdle run if using RPRs was better than the year before, not on par + given one was off a 53 day break and the other a 316 day break, it's weak evidence.

I think it's fair to say that we all use the figures in the way that support our thesis. Percy's OR over hurdles went up by just one for the hurdle run last season and I'd suggest that that makes it on a par with the previous run.
As for whether he was A1 over fences, the unsoundness was listed in the vet's post race report but Russell never blamed it and we will never know when it came on.
Other than ABP, who Scooby insists would have given Percy a race in the RSA, nothing has come out of that race and, given the ratings for last season's edition, I think that it's perfectly reasonable to take the position that 167 was over-egging Percy. He is most unlikely to make 170 this season so 20/1 is about right.

[JackieMoon33]

But now you're aware

I don’t identify with my subconscious.