Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

[The King Pimm]

Twice that price with Sky KP, now that is value IMO.

Cheers for that MS, I’ve just seen it on the Request a Bet, I’ll cash out now and re bet with Sky thanks

[Kevloaf]

I would never laugh at anyone’s selections Kev, that was a ‘cool’ emoji apparently. Fair enough it could have been viewed sarcastically but I didn’t think something that small could bruise your ego.

I was offering my opinion on the GC because that’s what this thread is for right? For me PP’s halo has slipped but it won’t take much to put it straight if campaigned a little more loosely. I’m just not willing to back him at this moment.

I didn't take any offense...and my ego can't be bruised I was saying all my bets are posted so you can see what I've backed and you might find it funny.... (as I've got a free bet on Santini)!

I'd definitely laugh at other people's selections... just because someone has an opinion doesn't mean they're right.

If two people have an opposite opinion, one of them must be right? I have seen that silly post about two people looking at a '6'/'9' and them "both being right".... well, they're not, as it was originally a 6 or a 9




PP's 'halo' slipping based on him being injured isn't a fair assessment? More realistic is that he didn't deserve the halo in the first place and/or we've not had chance to see whether he deserves it still.


It doesn't take a huge leap of faith to accept he didn't run his race, and consider he's twice the price of Al Boum Photo who he was in the process of beating in the RSA. It isn't proof he's better, but it's an angle!



Another point, Santini seems to be getting a lot of love and excuses made for him despite not winning (and his price doesn't reflect it)... he was beaten by Kilbricken Storm at Cheltenham, as well as La Bague Au Roi at Kempton and Topofthegame in the same race AND the RSA. People want to keep his halo glowing when he's been beaten pretty fairly in both races. I don't think he should be shorter than Presenting Percy at this stage.

Presenting Percy won over hurdles against an average field and then got injured during the race.... to rule him out based on that alone would be foolish.


You don't need to back either... and again, I will refer you to my original statement, you can have a look at my bets and have a laugh if you like

[bobbyvalentino]

Possibly if you had NRNB but current prices include the likelihood of this being the chosen race in 10 months time. Include the likelihood that LIT is improving and Altior deteriorating and I'd say that LIT is about right and Altior's price is remarkably skinny.

Deteriorating or losing some of that 2-mile pace? And he's still beating everything in the division.

[archie]

Deteriorating or losing some of that 2-mile pace? And he's still beating everything in the division.

Deteriorating for me but they're not machines and will have their ups and downs.

In any event, I don't think that he's got a prayer of staying the Gold Cup trip and he has to be at least 5/1 to go for it. Factor in the, say, 1/2 for him to get to Cheltenham fit and well and you're effectively expecting him to start at even money at current prices.

Each to their own, of course.

[Istabraq]

There is an argument, given the potential strength of next years renewal, that 12/1 Santini isn’t value and I accept that but races are never won on form alone otherwise favourites would win every race and bookmakers wouldn’t exist.
At this moment in time I’m of the view he ran well in his Potato race as a very inexperienced horse, he was poorly prepped last year in that 3m at a good ground Kempton would never play to his strengths, then his final prep was a shambles given the vaccine issues Hendo faced.
For me Santini has the potential to be a Gold Cup winner but so do half a dozen others, that said I’m happy mixing the 3 RSA horses with a couple of bankers, no doubt Altior and Paisley Park will suffer setbacks and target Aintree...

[archie]

At this moment in time, any horse can only be even money to turn up for this race. That means that 12/1 now represents 11/2 on the day.

Last season, Clan Des Obeaux won a G1 and a G2 on the run up to Cheltenham and started at 5/1 against an uneasy favourite. I'm struggling to see how Santini can perform to a similar level this season because the standard prep races just don't suit him. It's difficult to see a reason why his price would alter in the next 6 months which is why I'm 100% with Kev that 12/1 is simply not value.

Slightly different if you need a price now for multiples but I'd want a reason for staking the money now rather than when they're back in training.

[Istabraq]

Yep, agree with that archie.
Santini won’t be shorter than 10/1 come Paddy Power day or whatever it’s called these days so there is no obvious rush, however, free bets that expire need to be placed now and there’s no guarantee my 2 remaining accounts will survive the Summer and I’d like a few live multis running.
I’ve grown used to missing the value others enjoy and 12/1 for multi purposes is fine for me, if I had a dozen accounts with a lifetime guarantee of no restrictions I would behave differently...

[bobbyvalentino]

Deteriorating for me but they're not machines and will have their ups and downs.

In any event, I don't think that he's got a prayer of staying the Gold Cup trip and he has to be at least 5/1 to go for it. Factor in the, say, 1/2 for him to get to Cheltenham fit and well and you're effectively expecting him to start at even money at current prices.

Each to their own, of course.

Based on what Archie? If Altior wins a King George, the likely scenario if he turns up, I can certainly see him going off close to evens. I’d have him closer to 3/1 to go for it given connections have stated an intention to step up in trip and nobody does that to tackle a Ryanair.

Re. Stamina I’d say the trip (provided it’s not run in a bog a la 2018) is an overplayed factor

[archie]

Based on what Archie? If Altior wins a King George, the likely scenario if he turns up, I can certainly see him going off close to evens. I’d have him closer to 3/1 to go for it given connections have stated an intention to step up in trip and nobody does that to tackle a Ryanair.

Re. Stamina I’d say the trip (provided it’s not run in a bog a la 2018) is an overplayed factor

Based mainly on breeding. The dam has produced 5 others to race and none has won at further than 2m4f with most sticking to 2m. High Chaparral can produce stayers but you want more stamina on the dam side.

I can quite see Altior aiming at the KG but I'd expect that they'd see enough at Kempton to go back to 2m at the Festival. To me it makes much more sense to take 4/1 for the KG if you have to back him for something. He'd be nothing like evens for March even if he won well.

As with every other horse, unless you're looking at multiples this market will be stagnant for months yet and nothing is value right now.

[bobbyvalentino]

Based mainly on breeding. The dam has produced 5 others to race and none has won at further than 2m4f with most sticking to 2m. High Chaparral can produce stayers but you want more stamina on the dam side.

I can quite see Altior aiming at the KG but I'd expect that they'd see enough at Kempton to go back to 2m at the Festival. To me it makes much more sense to take 4/1 for the KG if you have to back him for something. He'd be nothing like evens for March even if he won well.

As with every other horse, unless you're looking at multiples this market will be stagnant for months yet and nothing is value right now.

Fair play if your doing it from a breeding perspective, it’s not something I tend to place much emphasis on (mainly due to having little knowledge around it)

I’m judging purely by eye of his racing, and a contrarian view of what is actually required to win a GC. ‘Speed’ horses have a fantastic record when given the chance

[archie]

To be fair, I've had enough people telling me that Kemboy isn't bred to get more than 3 miles and I'm happy to ignore them because Willie is confident that stamina isn't a problem. Given that he's won me the neck end of £5k in prize-money in the last month, I tend to not look at it from a betting point of view.

If it's your gut feel that Altior will stay and Nicky goes that route, I'm just not qualified to decide whether or not it's a sensible bet. I just don't see that anything changes through the summer.

[Middle_Of_March]

At this moment in time, any horse can only be even money to turn up for this race. That means that 12/1 now represents 11/2 on the day.

Last season, Clan Des Obeaux won a G1 and a G2 on the run up to Cheltenham and started at 5/1 against an uneasy favourite. I'm struggling to see how Santini can perform to a similar level this season because the standard prep races just don't suit him. It's difficult to see a reason why his price would alter in the next 6 months which is why I'm 100% with Kev that 12/1 is simply not value.

Slightly different if you need a price now for multiples but I'd want a reason for staking the money now rather than when they're back in training.

I think that’s an excellent post. A couple of very good points made

[archie]

I do feel the need to emphasise that all my comments are about how I, as a light and cautious ante-post player, would approach the book.

The absolute disclaimer is that no-one should consider it as advice about their own investments.

[jono]

At this moment in time, any horse can only be even money to turn up for this race. That means that 12/1 now represents 11/2 on the day.

Last season, Clan Des Obeaux won a G1 and a G2 on the run up to Cheltenham and started at 5/1 against an uneasy favourite. I'm struggling to see how Santini can perform to a similar level this season because the standard prep races just don't suit him. It's difficult to see a reason why his price would alter in the next 6 months which is why I'm 100% with Kev that 12/1 is simply not value.

In theory and as a whole for most horses this makes absolute sense and I would completely agree but just taking Santini in isolation to his price and how it will change through the year... (not the argument of it being value)

For all his career has always been shorter than he should have been so comparing him to other horses or using logic is slightly skewed.

Santini was around this price (12/1) at the start of last season. Then all it took was a few good words here and there in the previews, stable tours etc and by mid October, still yet to race over fences he was a top price 8/1 and a general 6/1 in places. After his chase debut at Newbury (1st December) he was down to 9/2 and as low as 3/1 for the RSA. Despite what was essentially flopping at Kempton when only 3rd at 11/10F AND then having a bad prep not only missing his intended trial race but also the foot issues in the days leading up to the race he still went off 3/1 for the RSA, a shorter price than the eventual winner TOTG who had beaten him at Kempton.

Clan des Obeaux on the other hand was at the start of last season an outsider for the Gold Cup and available at 50/1 for the race prior to his King George win. however good his wins were at Kempton and Ascot, such a big price at that point always meant that his price wouldn't tumble as much as some. Nicholls has always held him in high regard but he's had nothing like the same level of praise that has followed Santini. He won't of course go for the same races and you have opposition to consider but if hypothetically Santini were to run in and win both the King George and Denman Chase this season he would 100% be shorter than CdO was however the other Gold Cup contenders have done. Quite often and not always right prices are reflective of potential rather than proven form.

Now the fact the division is deep and the open company markets tend to not be as volatile and less likely to succumb to a positive stable tour etc or a half decent chase debut should mean his price holds but don't be surprised if we at some stage between now and December we are remarking how his price has got shorter by a point or 2 despite not actually doing anything.

IF you reeeally fancy Santini to come out on top next March AND you are happy to back horses this far out I can see why you would take the price if you take the viewpoint that he will be shorter as the season progresses and I think his career to date suggests that will happen even if his bare form doesn't quite justify it.

As has been said though already, for me you take the 12/1 for the Ladbroke now and go from there. Take the same price for a race 4 months in advance. You know he won't be going to Kempton again, and it would appear without being confirmed like the likely target for him.

He's rated 163 which although high (Bobs Worth 160, Denman (1st year) 161) you'd have to fancy him to be right up there if he has any chance of being a leading Gold Cup contender and challenging the likes of Al Boum Photo (175) and Kemboy (177). Plenty of improvement will be needed by the novices to get that level that's for sure. Frankly unless say Topofthegame / Lostintranslation also lines up he needs to win to be a serious Gold Cup player. (Djakadam defied flopping there but as a whole i'd side by this view)

On Topofthegame - Harry Derham said on a recent podcast that PN had already mapped out his route for next season, though did not go into detail. You'd have to assume Kempton and the King George is almost certainly off the agenda with both Cyrname and Clan des Obeaux for the race...Perhaps either or a mix of the following campaigns:

Charlie Hall (early Nov)
Betfair Chase (late Nov)
Denman Chase (Feb)

(as Silv Conti did in his open company year)

or

Ladbroke (early Dec)
Lexus? (late Dec)
Denman Chase (Feb)

(as Denman did)

How likely do we feel a Topofthegame vs Santini rematch in the Ladbroke? A race both trainers are happy to go for and whereby the obvious English winter trial (King George) would be unlikely for both.

[archie]

That's all logical and well argued. I agree that the same price for the Ladbrokes is the better bet but I'd also say that my argument about not having any bet until they come back into training is a better strategy because there's no reason for either price to change until September.