Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

[archie]

Best prices:

6/1 Kemboy
8/1 Al Boum Photo
12/1 Santini
12/1 Topofthegame
14/1 Delta Work
16/1 Lostintranslation
16/1 Presenting Percy

Purely a personal view.

You cannot back any horse at less than 10/1.

Kemboy is (deservedly) the highest rated staying chaser in these islands.
Al Boum Photo is the champion but how many do it twice?
Santini and Topofthegame are both dour stayers. They will need proper soft going.
Lostintranslation and Delta Work both have a touch of class and have won over 2m4f. Big players.
Presenting Percy needs to turn up and win somewhere or he will remain Presenting P*sstake.

[Eggs]

....well I backed Kemboy for this immediately after the Aintree Bowl @10-1. It’s much shorter than I would normally take this far out, but Kemboy was supported with real confidence ahead of its mishap in this years GC. I get the impression that confidence is stable based.

Mullins ran it in last years Irish National where it fell at the first but the entry suggests even at that stage there were no stamina doubts. I suspect we haven’t seen the best of Kemboy yet, I just hope he’s fit and well to take part next March.

[Kevloaf]

Oh.

Okay.

Ignoring the post that I've got this one ready then eggs


Anyway, in my opinion if you'd backed Kemboy at 12s you'd have had 12s as your limit on what I'd acceptable value and what's not... so I'm not sure I agree at 10s.

Seems a biased post towards the one you backed?

Kemboy's average Cheltenham record alone makes 10/1 look short and the current price incredibly easy to look past... the fact it looks like he'll stay is clearly a factor but the market hasn't adjusted to it.

I like Kemboy and if you forced me to back one for next year if they were all the same price it'd be Kemboy but it's not a good bet this far out unless you're hell bent on making a book and risk a helluva lot on him staying sound.

His SP would be shorter but not by a lot.

[The Don]

Personally I’m going to entirely ignore the race from a betting perspective entirely and enjoy watching what could be the most competitive field for some time.... exciting but not one for ante post

[Eggs]

Oh.

Okay.

Ignoring the post that I've got this one ready then eggs


Anyway, in my opinion if you'd backed Kemboy at 12s you'd have had 12s as your limit on what I'd acceptable value and what's not... so I'm not sure I agree at 10s.

Seems a biased post towards the one you backed?

Kemboy's average Cheltenham record alone makes 10/1 look short and the current price incredibly easy to look past... the fact it looks like he'll stay is clearly a factor but the market hasn't adjusted to it.

I like Kemboy and if you forced me to back one for next year if they were all the same price it'd be Kemboy but it's not a good bet this far out unless you're hell bent on making a book and risk a helluva lot on him staying sound.

His SP would be shorter but not by a lot.

....that’s a much more sensible and pragmatic view, Kev. I’m genuinely not talking through my pocket, though. The bias I show is because I really like the horse. Not sure why, it doesn’t really make sense and logic suggests my optimism is unfounded. Regardless, my colours are pinned to the mast.

[Kevloaf]

....that’s a much more sensible and pragmatic view, Kev. I’m genuinely not talking through my pocket, though. The bias I show is because I really like the horse. Not sure why, it doesn’t really make sense and logic suggests my optimism is unfounded. Regardless, my colours are pinned to the mast.

Haha fair enough. You certainly won't be alone!

[Kevloaf]

Personally I’m going to entirely ignore the race from a betting perspective entirely and enjoy watching what could be the most competitive field for some time.... exciting but not one for ante post

I agreed with that until the last sentence.

There are definitely going to be ante post angles in to this race

[The King Pimm]

Apart from the RSA horses of the Festival just passed can you see any other surprises in the top end of the betting in next years Gold Cup like Clans Des Obeux this year??

I personally think Lost in Translation needs another year, he won’t be ready but expect to see improvement from Elegant Escape, I think this years Gold Cup came too early for him but I expect him to improve next season again and be a genuine challenger.

[Vautour]

At the moment my Ante Post revolves around Paisley Park but if he wins I expect to have a very enjoyable Gold Cup day:

1.5pt - Kemboy (6), P.Park (3), Tiger Roll (7/4)
2.5pt - Al Boum Photo (7), P.Park (3), Tiger Roll (5/2)
1.25pt - Presenting Percy (16), P.Park (3), Tiger Roll (5/2)
2pt - Presenting Percy (14), P.Park (4)
3pt - Delta Work (33), P.Park (4)
3pt - Lostintranslation (33), P.Park (4)
1.5pt - Altior (14), P.Park (4) (Pretty sure he'll drop back for QMCC even if he wins the King George)
5pt - Topofthegame (14), P.Park (5)
5pt - Santini (16), P.Park (5)

I think it will be between the three from the RSA and a fit Presenting Percy (hopefully with at least a few runs behind him). Don't really fancy Kemboy for this. Think Topofthegame could improve significantly next season as still doesn't look the most professional and has a huge engine.

Also have Topofthegame and Santini coupled with P.Park and Envoi Allen for the Ballymore.

[archie]

I don't think that you can take a proper view for next year until the horse has had its first run of the season. However.....

I never really believed the stuff coming out about Presenting Percy last season. It may be that his injury in the Gold Cup was caused when he impeded Kemboy but it also may just be that he matured earlier in his chasing career and there isn't much more to come.

Topofthegame and Santini are both thorough stayers and may not have the speed on good to soft.

Elegant Escape only improved 9lb as a second season chaser. He can be forgiven the Aintree run but, for me, he's an exposed horse who can't possibly improve enough again to have more than an outside chance.

All 4 of the above will only be on my radar when they come out and run well on going better than soft.

[Kevloaf]

Would you expect there to be a Gold Cup run on anything but soft now?

I'm dubious they'd risk good to soft anymore.

Hopefully I'm way off!


Elegant Escape I'd want 100/1 at least.

Presenting Percy might not be good enough and may have peaked in the RSA but the price might be worth chancing...

Hmmmmmmm... those watering cans will be out in force?

[bobbyvalentino]

I can't believe no one has mentioned Altior yet. Granted it is probably surface dependent whether he would run in it or not, but the record of chasers running at 2m stepping up into the GC is fantastic (Best Mate, Kauto Star, even Sizing John). It's laughable LIT is shorter

[archie]

I can't believe no one has mentioned Altior yet. Granted it is probably surface dependent whether he would run in it or not, but the record of chasers running at 2m stepping up into the GC is fantastic (Best Mate, Kauto Star, even Sizing John). It's laughable LIT is shorter

Possibly if you had NRNB but current prices include the likelihood of this being the chosen race in 10 months time. Include the likelihood that LIT is improving and Altior deteriorating and I'd say that LIT is about right and Altior's price is remarkably skinny.

[Old Vic]

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[Faugheen_Machine]

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