Cheltenham 2019 - Analysis (What did we learn, with 2020 in mind)

[Middle_Of_March]

A feeling many can relate to if they witnessed the Annie Power fall too.

I have given some thought to the 'one horse week' - (Where one horse winning would make the whole week profitable)... I can see positives and negatives... I don't think I'd ever PLAN for it, unless I was absolutely sold on a horse. I haven't been since Frankel though so the bar is pretty high. Also, I'd need to win 20k+ from a single horse which isn't my style either really - I do spread the risk around. (I know BDD isn't exactly the same in this situation for you, I've digressed)



Thanks, I suppose it's hard to quantify exactly how 'smart' the bet is... as it's just effectively arbing and it takes away from finding the winners. It's a different skill to be fair.

I had a lot of help/guidance from some of the long term posters on this when I joined a few years back

I appreciate the responses btw. Good of you to take time to reply to my questions in such depth. Whilst I’ve been watching racing for 15 years, I’ve only been properly betting for maybe 5 of them. And only the last couple of years at a 4 figure amount for Cheltenham.

With Benie, whilst it wasn’t a one horse week, in the end, if she’d won I’d have been well up from the lumpy single and the multiples she was in (an antepost trixie of her, Altior and Tiger Roll for example). As it was, she fell - breaking my heart. It was more than possible to come back from there but I was on the back foot as soon as she hit the deck. A revival Wednesday and a great Thursday had me looking for a decent profit. The Friday was catastrophic tbh. Only Chtibello winning in a small betting race - think I only had a tenner on him at 12/1.

But I took a fortnight to dwell. A month to relax. Now it’s time to watch the videos and start looking ahead to next year. In fact, I watched the first 9 races of the festival here at uni last night.

[Middle_Of_March]

I think a lot of the handicaps come down to what you consider value. Magic Saint was easy for me to avoid, as absolutely nobody (bookies being the main ones) missed it. If anyone looked at what he, or Give Me A Copper had actully achieved they'd be no where near favourites. Obviously though, form isn't the only thing to go on but avoiding hype horses in general, in any race is beneficial, as the value / juice in the price or however you want to say it, is gone.

I covered Magic Saint and Give Me A Copper though in multiples... (the same ones to be fair) - only very speculative for less than £10 with plenty of the other Nicholls horses just in case the type of festival that happened to Nicky a few years back happened. Essentially I bought in to the Nicholls hype, as he was THE dominant force when I got in to the sport so I have a soft spot.



Do you think if we did take the 'safe option' though, and covered more (or even made a book for the race) it's taking the gamble out of it?

It effectively just becomes a game of me trying to beat the market SP and my own opinions out of it.... I can't tell whether I'm justifying having an opinion in the race even though it's wrong OR I'm just ignoring the fact I made a poor punting decision.

It’s an interesting question to ponder. I think sometimes the smart bet is to cover something in the race unless you’re very very confident. If there’s a danger at a price.

For example, in Benies race, I was so confident there’s no way I would’ve covered something. Ok, she fell. But if that race came along another 100 times, I’d still not have bet against her. Some you win, some you lose.

However, the RSA.. that was a race I absolutely should have covered TOTG. Instead, I got greedy. I had 16/1 Delta Work for any race and 10/1 for Santini. I went through the race and made TOTG a legitimate proper danger. At that point, I felt the price was right (7/2) but didn’t want to play him. That was the mistake. Almost as big as not laying off some of my 16s on the favourite. Silliness and greed.

But mistakes are to be made and learned from. So it’s ok. I won’t make a mistake like that next time.

[robith]

A minor loss on my approach - though I did get a free £800 hospitality ticket so factor that in and...

Once again, profit on singles, loss on multiples. New strategy of doubles and trebles ante post was banged by a couple of savage non runners (EDN/Le Richebourg especially) and most return from multis came from a long shot L15 that had klassical dream and ABP in.

Couple of them left hanging by some disappointing last legs - Battleoverdoyen, Delta Work (my first bet, any race at 22/1, felt savage sick Wednesday) and DDP would've been very different.

Ante post was kind to me though - KD, ABP and Envoi Allen all at big prices

Main feeling has generally being that I'm losing my touch. 2012-2016 I returned lovely profits that geniunely helped my life, but I've found it more and more difficult to make the festival work for me, not helped by those pesky multiples.

As such this year's message is clearer to me as it's the same every year. Back early, back each way and back singles

[Quevega]

THURSDAY


JLT - W Defi Du Seuil 3-1 on the day
4 runners in this

Had a good position in this race with biggish prices on Real steel, LIT, and Kildisart, which allowed me to have a decent bet on DDS, had to really as was disappointed that my antepost double had dipped. The front two just have to be decent as the form has been solid all season
Think DEfi is a solid option for King George as a novice with real potential and LIT could well be a danger in the gold cup. Both trainers need to be careful how these two are handled and if placed correctly should both take some decent prize money next season.

Pertemps - W Sire du berlais 28-1 AP.
ended up with 7 in this

I like this race as it's easier to narrow down the likely challengers, or so I thought. Had it not been for a brilliant ride from not my favourite jockey I'd have drawn a blank. But all ended well. The Irish trial at xmas is the one I'll be watching closely again for early AP bets, in fact the Christmas races over in Ireland are all interesting and the bookies are often sleepy around this time and slow to react to form. The later trials are also worth watching and returning horses on similar marks tend to run well enough.


Ryanair - W Frodon 20-1 AP
had four in this

Was pleased to have got a few quid on at 20-1 on the exchange for this in hindsight, I kind of predicted earlier than most that Nichols may revert to this after the previous talk of Gold Cup, especially when Clan Des Obeaux was nearing favouritism. My main bet was on Footpad and he disappointed again. With ASO coming so close it was another race similar to the pertemps where I was relieved more than anything. ASO would have been a real headscratcher and the race in general still is to be fair. Think the better horses didn't perform. I Think DDS is made for this race next year, and we'll see if A Plus Tard is really any good or not this week at Punchestown.

Stayers - W Paisley Park (various prices on or near the day 3-1 downwards)
3 in this

Really fancied Paisley Park but only as the race got nearer and had no antepost bets on him at all (big mistake). Although I may have chosen not to place more on him near the time had I had fancy prices, and he actually ended up carrying more money than any other horse for me. Approx 30-40 points spread around.
To me he is the perfect stayer and won like a good thing. If he stays sound then I can only see a similar outcome next year although City Island will be interesting to follow till then. Don't think the bartlett had anything lurking this year.


Plate - L
four runners

Was feeling good by this stage having had four from four and was ready to go thru card, but it went tits up from here.
I was at trials day and the form worked out really well from that handicap that the first two ran in. In fact the trials day in general was a really good pointer for this years festival and that's not normally the case. The fact I was at the course that day probably a good reason I never got on Paisley Park AP.
Trials day horses who won at the festival - Siruh du Lac, Frodon, Paisley Park,
horses that ran well - Janika, Fakir D'oudairies, Kildisart, Brewinupastorm, Sam Spinner

Mares Novice - L (picked up on concertista 33-1 for a place)
had seven in this

Strongly fancied Honeysuckle for this and probably a mistake to follow up with Sinoria as my main bet when she was ruled out.
About half hour before the race I went on to betfair (I'm not a regular on there at all) and saw the fancy prices for all the mullins horses.
I was already on concertista and allez dance but doubled up at odds of 150-1 and 125-1 or something just as daft. also backed concertista ew on b365 extra places (so got paid on this). Also backed elfile and buttercup.
Then decided to put the same horses in forecasts and swingers etc.
Had concertista won I'd have trebled my profit for the festival, so very close to a lovely day.
Big mistake was not even noticing the winner as it was just not on my radar having not been seen for a few months. I ignored
sister sarah on price but just missed the one Mullins runner. If that had been placed in the forecasts with concertista I'd have been very happy indeed
Regrets regrets fuckin regrets but it was fun anyway.
I'm actually pleased I had the right idea in this race on a number of fronts even though I missed the 'come shot'.
And the henderson juvenile mares are weak little fairies and should be ignored at those prices.

I think Honeysuckle has since shown that the mares in this were probably not much more than handicappers.

Kim Muir - L (paid on Young Master 22-1 ew)
6 in this

This race was looking good although this year the jockey bookings seemed to take an age to sort out. And the Mcmanus horse changed from week to week so I got fed up and didn't bother backing the winner at the prices available. Was on Measure of my dreams at 25-1 so was disappointed with how that ran. Nothing to learn from this race other than what we knew already.


All in All a good day as I had the first four races in profit, with good prices and big bets on the two shorter priced horses. My three biggest bets so far had all won too. Tiger, DDS, Paisley Park.
Just the mares novice that will haunt me for a while, one because of the finish and secondly knowing I had correctly spotted the massive value available on the mullins outsiders and thought out the likely outcome, only to make a schoolboy error whilst button pressing in the minutes before the race.
Bugger.

Dirty friday to follow.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Very interesting read all round this. Kev especially, as you say posting stakes isn’t exactly welcome but I thought it added real context to the post. I had a bit of a weird year last year, did a lot of sticking £10/20 on a horse for Cheltenham if I was in the bookies and had some cash or had had a winner to collect (them sports terminals in Hills shops are great!) was a lot more rigid in sticking to mainly singles as got fed up the years before having a great price on a winner antepost that was doubled/trebles with losers or non runners. The big decision for me this year is whether instead of having £20 win bets antepost I start doing £10 each way, can see the positives and negatives both ways so any advice is appreciated
I know he won bundles so doesn’t need to anymore but I hope Scooby still pops in with his thoughts next season, he found me some really great antepost bets

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Thanks Kev (and others) for your post-mortem, was a great read, especially when I was on a long train trip by myself. It's so refreshing to see such transparent self analysis in a game where it's far too easy to exaggerate success. Anyway here's me:

1. How did you get on?

First up let me start by saying a big thanks to all the excellent posters on here as nearly all my bets come from tips via this forum. I know the old adage is you should always go with your own opinion, but my results over the last couple of years question that somewhat. Of course I am developing my own opinions on horses, but I'm a long way from backing my judgement the way I back other people's.

Total real money outlay: 135 points (includes approx 15% used to 'farm' free bets)
Total free bets: 165 point
Total return: 440 points

ROI on Real Money: 225% ??? I think
ROI on Total outlay including free bets: 47% ???

Should add that while those figures are exclusively mine I placed exactly the same bets for my best mate, so you can imagine he was quite pleased. I do all the work but I get access to all his accounts for free bet farming including many I have lost. He's getting a good deal no doubt and will have to renegotiate next year....haha

A quick word on free bet farming. In my first season I funded the whole of my antepost on free bets, by either betting them directly or converting them to cash on the machine and them betting on horses at Cheltenham with other bookies at bigger prices. I mentioned at the time that it was time consuming but worthwhile as I doubled my total outlay at the Festival. This season I have quickened the process by:

a) As I was also betting with my own money not wasting time converting free bets into real money, but just placing them on horses for Cheltenham
b) Not spending as much time staking the qualifying bets for 0 loss when laying off on the machine, hence the 15% real money loss indicated in the figures above.

One final word on Betway's free bets offer. On my mate's account I racked up around 1,200 GBP of free bets before the account was essentially closed, all of which could be used on their Festival markets. The NFL offer in particular that I mention on the Free Bets page was awesome. It's also not an account you are going to miss for antepost betting so losing it after taking them for a few quid (960 as it turns out) was fine by us.

2. Will you be continuing with antepost betting?

Absolutely, and I'll be raising my stakes also, although Kev's post means I won't be getting too far ahead of myself in that respect

3. How did the multis go?
Placed few, and had even less going into the Festival after cashing out loads with Bet365. Unsurprisingly I had 0 returns. I will though likely place a few more next year due to 365 cash out offers. As if 1 horse's price comes in but another runs rubbish and goes out you can stil, cash out for your stake. I will continue to place small stake cross-sport multis where the final leg is a Cheltenham horse.

4. What advice or lessons learned?
a) Mention again the free bets as that really does reduce the risk for new punters.
b) Use 365 for particular races as cash out is fantastic offer, Hills generally for any race as best prices, making sure to use the daily boost.
c) Keep your eyes peeled for horses in the any race market in the early part of the season when bookies may not be aware of intended targets, examples include Cilaos Emery 28/1, Stand up and Fight and Shantou Flyer at 35/1 all flagged by Scooby. I know they didn't win but all represented cracking value

5. Biggest mistakes?

Wasted far too many free bets on the Supreme and Arkle, as things turned out I did manage a profit on the first race and broke even on the second (including free bets). Backed a load of horses in both races and although was unlucky like so many others with the Arkle non-runners I could have had a poor start. One good thing I did was start laying in the Arkle just before the non-runners kicked in and taking that very defensive position helped me break even for the race. I intend to take far fewer fliers for the Supreme especially

[Quevega]

Friday

Triumph - L
had four running.

Cashed AP best on Sir Erec and put it all back on and more at NRNB.
Had great position on Que destin 15-1, Adjali 75-1, Pic D'ohry 22-1
Just went as bad as could be expected really. But the winner is clearly very useful judging on how he won and followed up at Aintree (to my cost again).
First really big bet to go down due to the unfortunate injury and enough said.

County - L (picked up on Whiskey Sour ew 16-1)
had 5 in this

Obviously really competitive and the Skeltons' clearly need to be watched (probably overbet though) as they seem to know what's required in this race.


Bartlett - L
had 5 in this

Similar to triumph, as I was already ahead for the week I looked at the triumph and this race and thought I had it pretty well covered.
Derrinross 50-1 (xmas AP bet, price available a good ten minutes after it won at Limerick in a very good trial for this)
Alloha 20-1
Birchdale 27-1
CoF 10-1
Lisnagar Oscar 7-1

I'm not sure this race is as strong as previous year but after watching the Minella Indo race at punchestown yesterday I may be wrong.
But I'm still not sure I want to cover more horses for next year if in same position as you could go on forever really.

She was sat snug all the way round at Cheltenham and I think she could be champion in waiting our Rachel.
Having backed her at 160-1 and 125-1 for top jockey I think this was a damn good bet and was probably the one bet I was most pleased with for the whole festival, as I correctly thought the powerful stables would share rides out and the jockeys like walsh would not ride as many as previously. She actually picked up some decent rides and had honeysuckle turned up and cuneo lasted the trip out and other if's and buts she'd have gone even closer.
With Ruby quitting yesterday it will be interesting to see if any of the big guns sign her up to the stable, she actually reminds me of how Ruby rides so Willie will surely have a word.

Gold Cup - W Al Boum Photo 33-1 NRNB
had 5 in this I think

Getting fed up now, and nothing much to say about the rest of the races.

Lost in next two but won on last with a decent NRNB at 20-1ew on Early Doors.


Overall, and this is approximate as I stopped keeping records the day before the festival, due to my tracker being a word document on my work laptop.

I estimate I lost approx 70pts antepost NR's

I had approx 50pts in multiples - Only one to pay returned approx 51pts - A pre Dublin festival yankee that included Al Boum Photo & Klassical Dream. Both 16-1 from memory. So call it evens.

Then I had approx 514 pts run for me + 70 lost already.
Returning approx 808 back.

Think that's about 38% ROI.

Bit less than I originally thought straight after the festival as I was gauging it on my balances across the bookmakers I use, but must have underestimated the number of returns I got back from NRNB and a decent run up to the festival in everyday betting.

Overall I was very happy with how I performed and was happy with the value I managed to get and the judgement calls on the whole.

There was a sufficient variety of on the day bets, AP bets and NRNB all paying off so I think I'll be following a similar path next year. This year was my first proper go AP (other than just a handful of best prior to NRNB) and three or four of these paid off nicely.

Think I'll still have smaller bets though as this seems sensible as not all the evidence is known the earlier you place a bet, so low stakes means less risk. I prefer to risk more when I know more.

I will continue to bet based on value and not on who the likely winner is, as the races have many potential winners and it's impossible to be that good a judge. Although Judgement of a horses potential and ability is a key factor also.

In both these respects I was happy with how it went down, as this festival had it's usual share of head scratching results, without numerous runners in each race I would have struggled to make money for sure.

Not sure I'll do much differently for next year, as I said I would last year and ignored it so don't see the point. I'll just make each decision as it comes along.

I might do more AP multiples with cash out (as it surprised me how much these offered before a run. especially each way trebles etc) but I'm reluctant in case I lose the account or they stop the concession suddenly.

although I have slightly increased my stakes now but will continue to have small 1pt bets, and occasional 30-40 pt bets also.

[Kevloaf]

Thanks for all that Q - enjoyable read.

You do seem quite set in your ways reading the last bit, but it is working

I can't say I'm a fan of approx analysis but appreciate it isn't realistic for everyone to do (and not worthwhile for plenty)

[Kevloaf]

Thanks Kev (and others) for your post-mortem, was a great read, especially when I was on a long train trip by myself. It's so refreshing to see such transparent self analysis in a game where it's far too easy to exaggerate success. Anyway here's me:

1. How did you get on?

First up let me start by saying a big thanks to all the excellent posters on here as nearly all my bets come from tips via this forum. I know the old adage is you should always go with your own opinion, but my results over the last couple of years question that somewhat. Of course I am developing my own opinions on horses, but I'm a long way from backing my judgement the way I back other people's.

Total real money outlay: 135 points (includes approx 15% used to 'farm' free bets)
Total free bets: 165 point
Total return: 440 points

ROI on Real Money: 225% ??? I think
ROI on Total outlay including free bets: 47% ???

Should add that while those figures are exclusively mine I placed exactly the same bets for my best mate, so you can imagine he was quite pleased. I do all the work but I get access to all his accounts for free bet farming including many I have lost. He's getting a good deal no doubt and will have to renegotiate next year....haha

A quick word on free bet farming. In my first season I funded the whole of my antepost on free bets, by either betting them directly or converting them to cash on the machine and them betting on horses at Cheltenham with other bookies at bigger prices. I mentioned at the time that it was time consuming but worthwhile as I doubled my total outlay at the Festival. This season I have quickened the process by:

a) As I was also betting with my own money not wasting time converting free bets into real money, but just placing them on horses for Cheltenham
b) Not spending as much time staking the qualifying bets for 0 loss when laying off on the machine, hence the 15% real money loss indicated in the figures above.

One final word on Betway's free bets offer. On my mate's account I racked up around 1,200 GBP of free bets before the account was essentially closed, all of which could be used on their Festival markets. The NFL offer in particular that I mention on the Free Bets page was awesome. It's also not an account you are going to miss for antepost betting so losing it after taking them for a few quid (960 as it turns out) was fine by us.

2. Will you be continuing with antepost betting?

Absolutely, and I'll be raising my stakes also, although Kev's post means I won't be getting too far ahead of myself in that respect

3. How did the multis go?
Placed few, and had even less going into the Festival after cashing out loads with Bet365. Unsurprisingly I had 0 returns. I will though likely place a few more next year due to 365 cash out offers. As if 1 horse's price comes in but another runs rubbish and goes out you can stil, cash out for your stake. I will continue to place small stake cross-sport multis where the final leg is a Cheltenham horse.

4. What advice or lessons learned?
a) Mention again the free bets as that really does reduce the risk for new punters.
b) Use 365 for particular races as cash out is fantastic offer, Hills generally for any race as best prices, making sure to use the daily boost.
c) Keep your eyes peeled for horses in the any race market in the early part of the season when bookies may not be aware of intended targets, examples include Cilaos Emery 28/1, Stand up and Fight and Shantou Flyer at 35/1 all flagged by Scooby. I know they didn't win but all represented cracking value

5. Biggest mistakes?

Wasted far too many free bets on the Supreme and Arkle, as things turned out I did manage a profit on the first race and broke even on the second (including free bets). Backed a load of horses in both races and although was unlucky like so many others with the Arkle non-runners I could have had a poor start. One good thing I did was start laying in the Arkle just before the non-runners kicked in and taking that very defensive position helped me break even for the race. I intend to take far fewer fliers for the Supreme especially

Glad you had a good week, RC

Interesting point about backing your own opinion too..... can often get misunderstood.

[Middle_Of_March]

I don’t have a lot more to add to this thread (most of my own analysis has come in my replies to Kev on this thread) but I would personally just like to say Thankyou to everyone who’s contributed over the year on all the individual threads and also on the Forum Yankee threads. I do read all the replies even if I don’t put your suggestions in the final yankee all the time.

I’m glad the idea went down well and keeps us all going during the summer months.

[Quevega]

Thanks for all that Q - enjoyable read.

You do seem quite set in your ways reading the last bit, but it is working

I can't say I'm a fan of approx analysis but appreciate it isn't realistic for everyone to do (and not worthwhile for plenty)

Always open to new ideas mate, just know myself too well now to think I can stop the bad habits.

A Fool who knows he's a fool, is a wise fool. (just made that up) - probably been said in Japan few centuries ago.

The figures will be fairly accurate, as the numbers suggest. Just wouldn't be fair to claim they are 100% as I do not record every bet amount and odds when just sat at home on the day of the race or at the races myself (so memory is required for these).
All AP & NRNB are logged on a word document, but this is kept away from the wifey at work.

[Kevloaf]

Always open to new ideas mate, just know myself too well now to think I can stop the bad habits.

A Fool who knows he's a fool, is a wise fool. (just made that up) - probably been said in Japan few centuries ago.

The figures will be fairly accurate, as the numbers suggest. Just wouldn't be fair to claim they are 100% as I do not record every bet amount and odds when just sat at home on the day of the race or at the races myself (so memory is required for these).
All AP & NRNB are logged on a word document, but this is kept away from the wifey at work.

Haha, might catch on... I am a wise fool - a bit like Barters Hill?!

I've got a friend of mine who has expressed an interest in taking my 4.5 years worth of data and creating a database on it, to allow me to search/query and essentially properly analyse it... (seeing which stakes I've done best from, what kind of odds, winning/losing streaks) etc...

I'm scared.

[Quevega]

Haha, might catch on... I am a wise fool - a bit like Barters Hill?!

I've got a friend of mine who has expressed an interest in taking my 4.5 years worth of data and creating a database on it, to allow me to search/query and essentially properly analyse it... (seeing which stakes I've done best from, what kind of odds, winning/losing streaks) etc...

I'm scared.

Sounds like statistics to me.
And I think I know how you'll view most of those.