Cheltenham 2019 - Analysis (What did we learn, with 2020 in mind)

[Kevloaf]

Losers live in the past. Winners learn from the past and enjoy working in the present toward the future.

I wanted to go with Rafiki from the Lion King “Oh yes, the past can hurt, but the way I see it – you can either run from it, or learn from it” but it doesn’t fit as well as Denis Waitley’s quote above.

Those who have been around for more than 12 months will probably /hopefully remember this thread last year, which follows on from the one jono started in 2017. Worth reading through again, and highly recommended for any new members to read through. http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...-2019-in-mind)

This will be a long post. It will bend a few of the forum ‘unwritten rules’ (Mentioning amounts instead of points and some unavoidable after-timing the main two) which I apologise for however it is impossible for me to provide proper context or analysis without both, which hopefully makes sense if you make it to the end. (Jesus, the end, I’ve been writing for 15 minutes and not even properly got to the start yet).


Ultimately, this post if for me to analyse my own 2019 festival and writing it down will help me do that – that said, I very much welcome and comments, questions (and to some extent criticism) and I hope others answer the questions below too so we can all get something out of it 


So, taking the questions from the thread last year

1. How did you get on?
2. Will you all be continuing with ante post next year? / Will your approach change for 2019?
3. How did the yankees/multiples/ lucky 15's/placepots etc do for all?
4. What advice or lessons can be learnt from this year (ante post and/or on the day)
5. Your biggest mistakes / The races/horses you got wrong
6. Other points


1. How did you get on?

The cold, hard facts:
2019 Cheltenham:
Total Stake: £21,730.42
Total Return: £24,100.56
Total Profit: £2370.14 (+237 pts) - ROI 10.91%
To give that a little bit of context I’ll add it to my previous festivals:

2019 - +237 pts (ROI 10.91%) - from 2173 pts staked

2018 - +351 pts (ROI 26.48%) - from 1326 pts staked

2017 - +202 pts (ROI 19.59%) - from 1033 pts staked

2016 - +147 pts (ROI 37.70%) - from 391 pts staked

2015 - +84 pts (ROI 50.08%) - from 165 pts staked

2014 - +41 pts (ROI 27.79%) - from 150 pts staked

2013 - +8 pts (ROI 3.93%) - from 209 pts staked

2012 - +20 pts (ROI 28.37%) - from 70 pts staked

2011 - +8 pts (ROI 15.84%) - from 50 pts staked

On the face of it, I’d say it went well. It was the second highest total profit I’ve ever had, so I can’t grumble. I have however, felt quite flat about it since it all finished. I had 5 years growth in terms of profit year-on-year and this is obviously a trend I’m striving towards, so I’m disappointed that has dipped on last year.
The obvious reason for that is the ROI is down at 10.91% (still MUCH better than any bank would offer) but it’s my worst by a long way since 2013 (and that was back when I was only backing one horse per race, two at a push).
My total stake increased a mighty 63.87% on last year. This was a calculated decision based upon analysis last year and effectively I increased the value of a ‘point’ from £10 to £20 which accounts for the rise in stake. What I was obviously hoping for though was that reflecting in the profit which it hasn’t. I was still profitable so it hasn’t been a bad decision by any stretch, but ultimately it wasn’t a huge success either and staking over 20 grand is the absolute limit of what I can afford realistically without any unforeseen big wins. I had a very profitable ‘flat season’ last year whereby I’d increased the standard bet from £10 to £20 and that helped with the increase in stake too, but I’m not (and wasn’t) planning to stake much more than £15,000 this year. More on that below!

[Kevloaf]

2. Will you all be continuing with ante post next year? / Will your approach change for 2020?
Yes, and maybe?
As I said last year - I will absolutely be carrying on with ante-post for Cheltenham - I do believe it is harder than it used to be, however I do not believe ante-post punting is dead which I hear all too often. I think enough of us on here have proved that isn't the case!

In terms of winners, I had 19/28 – which is actually very poor for me and the method I use. I thought I’d ‘played it safe’ this year which is partly true, but going in to more detail, I backed some on the day and ‘not ante-post’! Notably, Hazel Hill 7/2 (about 30 seconds before the off), Ch’tibello 12/1 the night before, a top up on Sire Du Berlais at 6/1 night before, Altior (4/5 special offer) on the day, William Henry (35/1 winner, did post that selection/reasoning on here in a fledging attempt at covering up this after-timing), Le Breuil 9/1 (very much a spur of the moment safety cover bet as I thought I had the 4 miler by the balls), A Plus Tard 15/2 on the Saturday (declaration stage), Roksana 9/1 (on the day, and did the Hugh Taylor double with Duc Des Genievres). £10 e/w 47/1 paid £718.75
On the face of it, that would mean ante post I’d only have had 11/28 winners. That is a shockingly bad return for someone who makes a book in some races! The above also doesn’t count the biggest return I had from a single bet, which again was placed on the day. I had an each way double(s) on: Siruh Du Lac & Spiritofthegames with Any Second Now. SDL and Spirit we’re winner and placed in the Plate, so both were rolling on to Any Second Now (who I’d made a case for and backed earlier in the season but he didn’t win) but I thought was too short! £15 e/w (2x £7.50 ew) paid £941.25.
So that is £1680.00 back from two each way doubles placed on the day. Now that is NOT how I planned to make the majority of my profit, it’s lucky, unreliable and a little embarrassing for somebody who spent as much time on this forum as I do!
There was also a Defi Du Seuil/Frodon double that paid £390 and an Altior, Tiger Roll, Envoi Allen Trixie that paid £442
However, I do have to factor in the fact that the strategy I have, of backing more than one at bigger prices does allow me to have these ‘saver’ bets and therefore, it is a lot safer than it sounds and effectively I have made my own luck by having a nice book to start with by the time the day-of-race markets form.

What can I learn from that? Well I’m torn to be honest. I didn’t fully go through with that ‘covering’ strategy or safety approach. Some of the ones that ‘got away’ that (in the 20:20 of hindsight) I should have backed include:

Espoir D’allen – now this was a really stupid one – I had the £25 ‘free’ from 365 and I had this in the slip at 18/1 win only. I already had 5 backed in the 10 runner race (Apples 6s and 8s, Buveur 11/4 and the £25 free on him at 11/4, Laurina 12s, Sharjah 15s, Melon 22s. I should have at least put £10 ew on the other runners, but I couldn’t really see past one of “the big 3” winning it. I’d have been up regardless of who won and in previous years I’d have done that, as ultimately, my ‘strong opinion’ was that the front 3 will win the race…which was wrong – but I was in a position where I could have made profit despite being wrong… which is surely the sensible if not ‘too safe’ an option.
Envoi Allen – He’ll have to go in here, as I cashed out the 33/1 for a profit of £60 but I was reluctant to back him again, and couldn’t bring myself to in a single. I don’t regret cashing it out based on the information I had at the time…but it’s a frustrating one nevertheless.
Minella Indo – Livid about this one. Again, in the 365 bet slip… why I didn’t even put £5 e/w on I cannot remember. I briefly remember thinking along the lines of “Well Allaho has him covered and I’m on that at 40/1 e/w” but even so, I usually always back the horse that’s second to one I fancy if they re-oppose (at the right price) in case they finish 1-2 again. In this case I’d have gotten lucky with it but a big error on my part. I’d backed some others with the additional places late on the day too and just didn’t think clearly enough. Really frustrating and poor judgement on my part.

Before making a decision on whether or not I’d change, I should also focus on some of the ‘good points/successes’ from the ante-post too…

Supreme / Klassical Dream – Long time forumites will know this race has been a minefield for me in the last two years. I’ve ended up forced to make a losing book in this race (with non-runners) and it was highlighted as a race I need to be more careful with in 2017/2018 and 2019. Fortunately this year I got it right. I only had -£67 in non runners (2018 was -£223 and 2017 was -£190). Obviously some of that is luck but I was more selective and bar Al Dancer (who I didn’t really fancy) I had decent prices on the market principles. Angel’s Breath 33/1, Klassical Dream 25/1, Aramon 48/1. I also fancied Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet at bigger prices 25/1 and 40/1 from quite a way out as plenty of us highlighted on here. I made a profit cashing out too (only £30) but that flexibility from 365 certainly helped so as long as that’s still an option I’ll use it – although with £30 it’s hardly life changing if I lost it (granted it’s hard to know if I’d still have backed the right horses without that security) – I think so though. A great start to the week with a 1-2-

RSA – By the absolute balls (like I know many of us did) – this race is an example of how I like to approach ante post at Cheltenham and it working - The 1-2-3 backed at 28/1, 16/1 & 12/1 and 22/1 in Topofthegame, Santini and Delta Work. Cover bets on the other runners but all at big e/w prices so a small price to pay (what I should have done in the CH etc)

JLT – This ended uyp being a key race for me as I went quite strongly in on Defi Du Seuil on the day and the night before however I did have him at 15/1 ante post and Lostintranslation at 25/1 – as well as Mengli Khan at 33/1 who filled the placed. I backed the other runners too, very similar to the RSA and a cracking result.

Stayers Hurdle – Won’t be the only one with this, but I think the biggest ante post winner and biggest single I had was Paisley Park at 25/1 - £25 e/w paid £831.25. Quite satisfying as Penhill was my main selection for this race but because PP went off fav, I was able to go fishing and managed to make a case and back Sam Spinner on the day – which if I didn’t have the fancy price about PP I might not have been as inclined to do (impossible to tell, but I like the angle)

Mares Novice – Now this may be perceived one of two ways, genius or fool! When the decs came out and were posted on here, I backed every single Mullins runner NRNB. Unfortunately Paddy weren’t BOG but Eglantine Du Seuil 20/1 and Concertista 33/1 made this a profitable race. I didn’t expect them all to run, but backing Mullins blind paid off and I didn’t fancy Epatante at all. There is an element of luck involved though, as hindsight has shown us Honeysuckle was probably a knocking good bet in this (Quevega will be pleased/gutted at the same time!). I know Scooby absolutely had this one off too on the day at a wild price on the exchange which eclipses what I’ve done, but it is all relative of course.


Triumph – Best Odds Guaranteed absolutely bailed me out here, backed Pentland Hills at 9/1 (as had over £5k returns from either Sir Erec or Pic D’Orhy) so thought it worthwhile in a relatively small field to create the book. He won at an SP off 20/1 – definitely a case of it better being lucky than good. Highlights the benefit of BOG though for those of us who still get it!

Gold Cup – Well documented that I was in a good position in this race as I’d backed Presenting Percy at 40/1. Due to multiples a win for Presenting Certainty would have been around £8000 for me, but alas, Al Boum Photo was one I’d also been on-side with 7th May 2018 at 33/1. I’d also backed Anibale Fly at 66/1 in 2018 too – so despite Percy not giving me the big returns, it was a very good race for me – and without a doubt one of the best ante-post betting races of the week.

Martin Pipe – The final ‘good’ ante-post story, Early Doors 17.52/1, Defi Bleu 25/1 won and placed. Also the 2^nd, Dallas Des Pictons would have been over £3000 due to some multiples but again, you don’t complain at a 1-2-3 in any race ante-post!


Honourable mentions to: City Island 16/1 – Similar to the above really, didn’t form a really strong opinion at any stage and City Island wasn’t my first choice but 16/1 winners are welcome!
Altior – The banker of the week and had the 15.5/1 double with Enable in the Arc rolling over again – definitely an angle I’ll be using again through the flat season if I can find horses I really fancy at circa 5/1.
Tiger Roll – 7/1 ante post – should have put more on!


On balance, I don’t think I’ll change my approach, going through “the good” has lifted my spirits a little, I think I’d been taking for granted the successes and dwelling too much on the mistakes. Be very interested in other people’s thoughts though, as ultimately, with the amount I’ve staked, I should be getting to a stage where I either need to reign it in a little (as 21k staked is pushing the limited of what I can physically afford to get on) OR whether I kick on and try and make it a second income officially. I’m £18,636.56 up since 1/1/2015 (When I started recording every bet) which I’m proud of but I need to be making that tax free a year, and it’s been 4 years… so any advice on that front, please don’t be shy!

[Kevloaf]

3. How did the yankees/multiples/ lucky 15's/placepots etc do for all?

Staked £4456.89
Returned £3640.06
Profit -£750.91 loss

Non-runners equated to -£709.65 from multiples. Total Non-runners was -£2585.27

I made a loss on these last year too… I’ve had ante-post multiples (and multiples) since 2014. 2 out of 5 years have been profitable, the other 3 similar losses. This is quite interesting, as on the face of it you’d assume I’d want to knock these on the head… however, I don’t.

I was more selective with them this year, and focussed on a smaller group of horses. Ultimately, I was hit with a few non-runners. Penhill, Cilaos Emery, Samcro(chasing), AND then horses that just didn’t win – Presenting Percy, Sir Erec, Pic D’Orhy, Buveur D’air, Ok Corral and Benie Des Dieux. However, if ANY of those 9 horses had won, I’d have had a minimum of £2000 from, rising to £8000 for some. (Possibly Le Richebourg too, and to some extent Santini!)
It’s a calculated risk that I’ll continue to take, unless someone can point out why that wouldn’t be so sensible?
Cilaos Emery hurt the most in hindsight…and I know I’m not the only one.

I’ve already mentioned my best multiples in the section above and they weren’t ante post… so overall, you wouldn’t say it was a success but I’m reluctant to change. I still don’t ‘chase the huge’ pay-out enough, and got nowhere near with the ones I tried, but I will have a think about that going forward.

[Kevloaf]

4. What advice or lessons can be learnt from this year (ante post and/or on the day)

I’ve had a few already in the first few questions but some others that are in my head:

Last years favourites/fancied horses – This is an angle I did bring up this year and William Henry did the business in the Coral Cup at 35/1. Next best was Tobefair in the Pertemps, 2nd at 66/1! There was also a huge run from Sam Spinner at 36.75/1 2^nd in the Stayers and Melon at 22/1 in the Champion Hurdle.
All of them had either gone off fav or been ‘very strong’ in the market in the same race the year before and the angle is that, whatever made them so strong last year in the market has been somewhat dismissed in their price this year. Melon is perhaps dubious as it was ante post however the others all fitted the pattern strongly. My personal feeling is that when a horse ‘flops’ when well fancied, the connections first thought is to have another crack at it… the pressure is off and they come in under the radar and run a massive race. It isn’t something I did consciously until quite late on but it is definitely an angle I’ll be looking at next year. A horse like Presenting Percy or Laurina probably wouldn’t ever get forgotten about, and it’s hard to know who it’ll be but it’s something I’ll keep my eye on!

Backing during a race – Something I did more than ever this year, best example being Paisley Park in the Stayers Hurdle. As he was about to cross the line I backed hi mand he was sortened within 30 seconds after. The closer to the festival we get, the more bookies suspend betting during the big races, but early in the season this wasn’t happening. I can’t imagine they have the resource or inclination to do it all year round.
Any Race – linked to above, they seem slower updating the “Any Race” markets. We’re good on here at highlighting it when they forget which I hope continues!

Cash-out – This is a huge one, that we’ve all discussed loads but while I can still use it, it’s really valuable. Early in the season we are ahead of the game with non-runners and changes in target and can react quickly. Again, the closer to the festival we get, the sharper the bookies get – but I don’t expect them to be on it 365 days a year! So if we all continue to share as much info as we can that’d be great.

Free bets - I managed to acquire £1633.98 in free bets that I placed on Cheltenham 2019. My return from them was only £691.25 however, the reality is that I accrue them by my normal week to week gambling anyway, and as that’s profitable, I’ll continue to put them on ante post. I used plenty of them to ‘boost’ winnings on potential horses that I felt were too short to back, and judging by the results, none of them really won so I’d have wasted ‘real money’ on them. Others prefer to shoot for the stars with theres and I totally get that, I haven’t really decided what to do yet, if I could keep hold of them until the week (especially Sky ones) it’d be quite a nice amount to put on a horse I fancied nearer the time… but then again, very hard not to back things at 20/1 plus now.

[Kevloaf]

5. Your biggest mistakes / The races/horses you got wrong
I didn’t have as many ‘strong’ opinions as last year, so this section SHOULD be shorter than it was last year…

Day One
Apple’s Jade at Cheltenham? I don’t want this to be true, but the evidence is starting to stack up. I just can’t get this horse right. When she’s my banker she gets beat, when I’m wary she absolutely dots in. She’s won enough to be a superstar yet I just can’t seem to get her right the week it matters the most! Already mentioned the mistake in not backing Espoir D’Allen. Overall though the mistake was thinking one of the front 3 had this absolutely sewn up – however I’m not sure if I had another 100 goes I’d have done it any different.
Arkle – Not really a mistake but the race was horrible really, as Cilaos Emery, Le Richebourg and Draconien all not getting there had me in a hole before I started. I did okay but not a great race.
Ultima – Beware The Bear I could not fathom defying last years poor run from a higher mark. He’s just a horse in better form, the change of tactics worked but I couldn’t have had him backed at all. Minella Rubbish was pulled up, which goes down as being wrong and my main fancy 45/1 Coo Star Sivola was pathetic. I expected SO much more. Maybe one that’ll be back next year in better form perhaps and forgotten in the market?

Day Two
Min – Thought he was going for the Ryanair (should have!) and when he was re-routed I put too much faith in him to be 2^nd to Altior. I’ve moved away from shorter prices really so having money on Min without at the price he was, probably wasn’t worth doing. Wouldn’t have made a huge difference either way but still a mistake.
Tiger Roll – I should have had more on! I should have absolutely walloped the Altior/Tiger double. I didn’t buy in to the ‘Elliott’s aren’t running well’ but I was reluctant to stake any more by this stage and any returns I’d had were just getting withdrawn instantly so I didn’t ‘give it all back’. Ultimately, these two were the most solid bankers of the week and I didn’t make enough of a deal of it. Too busy looking for fancy prices I suppose when sometimes it pays to stick with the obvious.
Bumper/Blue Sari – Backed him win only! Had cashed out Envoi Allen as has been mentioned and although technically I did have EA land the Trixie, it means on my spread sheet, in terms of SINGLES only, I have still NEVER had a return from a horse in the bumper. An incredible hoodoo!

Day Three
Ryanair – Just got this wrong. Thought it was between Min and Monalee. Then got really scared about Road To Respect and had already played Footpad. Had too many backed already and it was one of the worst races of the week for me (despite the DDS/Frodon double)… lucky.
Mares Novice – Dubious as a mistake as I had the winner, but didn’t have BOG ante post when it was available elsewhere at very similar prices. A little bit silly although relying on BOG is NOT something I want to be doing anyway.

Day Four
Already mentioned but not backing Minella Indo is still annoying a month later. I fired so many darts at the Albert Bartlett and should have just covered the field by the time we got to the race as I had no strong opinion. Poor return despite Allaho getting placed at 40/1.

[Kevloaf]

6. Other points

Excellent in the Handicaps – Had a pretty good return in the handicaps to be fair after a slow start. Obviously backed multiple runners in each but definitely an area I’m improving in. Had the 1-2 in the Close Brothers, the 1-2-3-4 in the Coral Cup, the 1-2-3 in the Fred Winter, The 1-2-5 in the Pertemps, the ‘lucky’ double with the winner and 3^rd in the Brown Plate with the winner of the Kim Muir, the 2-3 in the Kim Muir as well, the 1-2-3-4 in the County and the 1-2-3-5 in the Martin Pipe!
Overall for the handicaps finished with a net profit of £1954.16 which is 82.45% of my overall profit

Not enough time dedicated to watching video form - This year was a strange year, the weather (no rain) affected pretty much every yard and horse, as well as the equine flu outbreak that is an anomaly too but I didn’t watch as much racing as I normally do. Would be foolish to assume a drop in ROI is not somehow linked to the fact I spent too much time chatting about horses on here without watching the races back more than once!

No 100/1 winners – the elusive 3 figure winner to be tipped on here is evading me – but the search for the next Rawnaq/Saint Calvados goes on ��

Quiet recently – Mayo mentioned I’d been a bit quiet and not on here as often since the festival, reason being…. This years Cheltenham returns have gbeen spent now on applying for our first mortgage, (as we’ve been renting together for 5 years) and part of that involves bank statements being checked and mine are page after page of deposits and withdrawals, so as well as having to display all my spreadsheets and workings as proof that I’m not a complete gambling degenerate I had to show that I can stop whenever I want to…so logging in here wouldn’t have helped me do that. Fortunately, that’s all now sorted and I will be back to normal.

DONE. If you take the time to read it, 1. Get a life and 2. Thank-you – and as I said at the start, I look forward to hearing about your own analysis’ and welcome any questions or advice!

**I exceeded the 20,000 word limit hence the broken down posts** Hahaha

[Quevega]

Cheers for this Kev - Love shit like this.
Will do my own at some stage,
just been painting the fence and decking last few days and feels like I've painted the trump mexican wall/fence.
On Ibuprofen and rose wine to get me through it all.

Well done on the profit, although the amount staked is scary (even for me).
I stake very similar amounts to be fair, although no where near 20k for just the festival.
But for balance, my Bet365 account shows 80k staked for last 12 months, returned about 84k.
Which is remarkable IMO on a £20 average punt.
I have at least 8 other accounts, and whilst these are used less than 365. I daren't guess the total outlay.
Just need to stop betting on any old shit as my percentage return on cheltenham was excellent again.
I'll post something soon.

[Hurricane fly]

Kev I’ve also just had my first mortgage approved

2 things

1) I had it confirmed to me that bookies appearing on your account do not diminish your application, that stems from when people could bet with credit cards
2) I have a betting bank account where I have my online accounts linked too, bank only asks to see the account that a)your deposit is in and b) where your pay check goes in, somthey never even saw mine!

[Faugheen_Machine]

A great read Kev. You absolutely smashed the handicaps. A great effort

[Middle_Of_March]

Yeah

6. Other points

Excellent in the Handicaps – Had a pretty good return in the handicaps to be fair after a slow start. Obviously backed multiple runners in each but definitely an area I’m improving in. Had the 1-2 in the Close Brothers, the 1-2-3-4 in the Coral Cup, the 1-2-3 in the Fred Winter, The 1-2-5 in the Pertemps, the ‘lucky’ double with the winner and 3^rd in the Brown Plate with the winner of the Kim Muir, the 2-3 in the Kim Muir as well, the 1-2-3-4 in the County and the 1-2-3-5 in the Martin Pipe!
Overall for the handicaps finished with a net profit of £1954.16 which is 82.45% of my overall profit

Not enough time dedicated to watching video form - This year was a strange year, the weather (no rain) affected pretty much every yard and horse, as well as the equine flu outbreak that is an anomaly too but I didn’t watch as much racing as I normally do. Would be foolish to assume a drop in ROI is not somehow linked to the fact I spent too much time chatting about horses on here without watching the races back more than once!

No 100/1 winners – the elusive 3 figure winner to be tipped on here is evading me – but the search for the next Rawnaq/Saint Calvados goes on ��

Quiet recently – Mayo mentioned I’d been a bit quiet and not on here as often since the festival, reason being…. This years Cheltenham returns have gbeen spent now on applying for our first mortgage, (as we’ve been renting together for 5 years) and part of that involves bank statements being checked and mine are page after page of deposits and withdrawals, so as well as having to display all my spreadsheets and workings as proof that I’m not a complete gambling degenerate I had to show that I can stop whenever I want to…so logging in here wouldn’t have helped me do that. Fortunately, that’s all now sorted and I will be back to normal.

DONE. If you take the time to read it, 1. Get a life and 2. Thank-you – and as I said at the start, I look forward to hearing about your own analysis’ and welcome any questions or advice!

**I exceeded the 20,000 word limit hence the broken down posts** Hahaha

Good read that Kev - cheers.

I’ll probably have some questions later in the week after re-reading it.

[The King Pimm]

I really enjoyed reading your analysis Kev and I’ll reply when I get a chance later in the week. I had some very similar predictions, regrets and outcomes and can relate to that empty/flat feeling afterwards but yeah I think it’s all worthwhile because I really don’t know what I’d have done with my time that time of year otherwise. I’m not sure if any of you enjoy the 6 nations rugby but along with the Cheltenham Festival build up I’d really struggle with the post Christmas winter without them.

[Kevloaf]

Kev I’ve also just had my first mortgage approved

2 things

1) I had it confirmed to me that bookies appearing on your account do not diminish your application, that stems from when people could bet with credit cards
2) I have a betting bank account where I have my online accounts linked too, bank only asks to see the account that a)your deposit is in and b) where your pay check goes in, somthey never even saw mine!

Cheers HF and congratulations - fortunately all sorted now.

A bit of scaremongering on their part I believe

[jack1092]

Also Kev on the mortgages thing. Use PayPal- it stops your bank account having millions of deposits and withdrawals! Great read!

One small question that isn’t really that important, but what are the skybet free bets you receive? Is it the one you opt into for a £5er? Can you save them all up until March?

[Kevloaf]

Cheers for this Kev - Love shit like this.
Will do my own at some stage,
just been painting the fence and decking last few days and feels like I've painted the trump mexican wall/fence.
On Ibuprofen and rose wine to get me through it all.

Well done on the profit, although the amount staked is scary (even for me).
I stake very similar amounts to be fair, although no where near 20k for just the festival.
But for balance, my Bet365 account shows 80k staked for last 12 months, returned about 84k.
Which is remarkable IMO on a £20 average punt.
I have at least 8 other accounts, and whilst these are used less than 365. I daren't guess the total outlay.
Just need to stop betting on any old shit as my percentage return on cheltenham was excellent again.
I'll post something soon.

Thanks Q. Yes I recall you saying we have a similar pattern before. For a bit more context, I've deposited £119,656.12 and withdrawn £138,073.78 since the start of 2015 which is frightening really. I suppose I'm 'lucky' to have no dependants to allow me the luxury, and it is luxury!

A great read Kev. You absolutely smashed the handicaps. A great effort

Thank you Sir, I am quite proud of the handicaps although on the flip side it exposed a very poor graded and novice attempt this year. I'm inclined to put that down to lack of genuine form, as form is usually my (and a lot of peoples) go-to medium in finding winners?

Yeah

Good read that Kev - cheers.

I’ll probably have some questions later in the week after re-reading it.

Thanks MoM - look forward to the questions, be interested to see your answers too, as a chap newish to the game (relatively speaking)

I really enjoyed reading your analysis Kev and I’ll reply when I get a chance later in the week. I had some very similar predictions, regrets and outcomes and can relate to that empty/flat feeling afterwards but yeah I think it’s all worthwhile because I really don’t know what I’d have done with my time that time of year otherwise. I’m not sure if any of you enjoy the 6 nations rugby but along with the Cheltenham Festival build up I’d really struggle with the post Christmas winter without them.

Thanks TKP. I do feel much better having got all of it off my chest, back ready to re-watch the whole festival and start an attack on next year.


I am keen on the flat though too, and may start posting more regularly about that as we get through the long sunny days.

[Kevloaf]

Also Kev on the mortgages thing. Use PayPal- it stops your bank account having millions of deposits and withdrawals! Great read!

One small question that isn’t really that important, but what are the skybet free bets you receive? Is it the one you opt into for a £5er? Can you save them all up until March?

Yes, I could do that but it is now sorted so I'm free to carry on as I was.... was only a small sacrifice to make for a month and I'm through the woods now.

I don't like leaving the money in an account, it encourages lazy and ill-informed betting.


My actual next big target is Eurovision, which I'll be smashing to bits as per


....and yes, they last for 365 days, so I'm planning (although have failed so far) to 'store them' and just have a "lumpy" bet closer to the time?
Last year I had access to 4 sky accounts so they built up quite quickly... I'm down to 2 now and it won't take them long to cotton on nw that new debit cards need adding etc.... made hay while the sun shone though and it's not a major factor.

Rhinestone Cowboy is the man to ask regarding utilising 'free bets' and farming them though, he had a very effective (little bit time consuming) system that I'm sure he'll elaborate on if he's about...