Request-a-Bets (was 'Sky Bets' thread)

[Istabraq]

Makes that Shiskin (2022 CC), Envoi (2022 Gold Cup) double at 225/1 look even better. That's at 66/1 now so might go back in for a little bit of this.

Yeah definitely Jorvik, was that Sky or Hills ?
I note most firms do these specials now sadly I can only play Sky so often get less value...

[Jorvik]

Yeah definitely Jorvik, was that Sky or Hills ?
I note most firms do these specials now sadly I can only play Sky so often get less value...

Sky

[EnvoyAllen]

Taken a punt at the Sky special for Shishkin to win the Arkle and follow up with the following seasons Champion Chase, and Envoi Allen to win the Marsh and double up in the Gold Cup.
125/1.

Probably the biggest mug bet I've ever had and I'm sure I remember Envoy Allen making a good case (somewhere) for playing the shorter price double which made sense, I've just taken the view that they should both be winning their novice engagements and the 2022 double should then be much shorter than 125/1, plus a mug bet always looks good on the account....

I have to disagree with you M Istabraq. I don’t believe it’s a ‘mug’s bet’ at all. There are certainly a lot worse ‘mug bets’ than this still currently circulating ( “Goshen to win the 2021 & 2022 Champion Hurdle @ 33/1” - is this a joke??)
Firstly, and for someone who’s been keeping a very keen eye on this type of market throughout the Autumn, some key dates -

September 29th - This bet was available at 550/1 with William Hills. Bet placed.
December 2nd - This bet was available at 225/1 with SKYBet. Bet placed.
December 11th - This bet was available at 175/1 with SKYBet. Bet placed.

And as previously mentioned, the unbelievably generous price of 225/1 for just Shishkin & Envoi Allen to win the Champion Chase/Gold Cup double of 2022, regardless of their performance in a few months, was available on SKYBet as recently as the 30th November. Frantically, I used 2 very generous friends to utilise the ‘?20 Max’ on this market, as I thought someone at SKYBet would catch on. It lasted 24 hours. I managed to get 175/1 the next day (maxed the ?20 again) before, as you’ve mentioned, it now sits at 66/1. And yet, even now, that still has the potential to be a solid price.

We know their very likely targets for 2022, more so maybe than any other horses. We can’t be absolutely sure Envoi Allen will stay for a Gold Cup, because he hasn’t been tested at the distance so far, but any discernable racing punter who does their homework will have known for 18 months that Elliott and Cheveley Park have acquired the horse for, and to be trained for, the Gold Cup. Elliott has stressed this enough times. It’s not rubber stamped, but a reasonable enough assumption to believe Envoi Allen will be trained throughout the Summer of 2021 for his 1st tilt at the Gold Cup in 2022.

Another key thing here with dates, and relation to the prices above is -

When did Shishkin & Envoi Allen last race in relation to the prices in Sky’s ‘Request-a-bets’ markets that they publish for the punter??

Dismissing the 550/1 on the Sept 29th that i took as a speculative long range punt on what I believed are 2 very good horses, Shishkin last raced on 23rd November and Envoi Allen on the 29th November.

They haven’t raced since.

Shishkin will next race on the 27th December and Envoi Allen the 17th January, according to Gordon Elliott.

And yet from the date Envoi Allen last raced, the price for the 225/1 ‘2022 double’ was available the very next day and the ‘2021 & 2022 quadruple Acca’’ was first available on the 2nd December.

Both horses have been wrapping Christmas presents whilst their odds have tumbled from 225/1 into 66/1 (for just the 2022 double) and into 125/1 for the 4 timer.

So why would a punter, worth his salt, not look at the 2021 market and start planning for 2022?? That’s not being a mug, and you shouldn’t feel you are. Granted, many people, maybe a very large majority even do not, and will never conceive of betting this way - it’s too far out,way too far out. But ask yourself this, what are the chances of Shishkin and Envoi Allen making the 2022 festival?? Surely the same identical chance as the 2021 festival?? It has to be - we know no different at the moment as to their fitness, and yet the markets (constructed from punters money, and hundreds of thousands of pounds thus far) have them at 5/4 & 6/4 to win in a few months time, way ahead in the markets of their rivals.

That fact alone, as we currently stand, can’t make any 2022 projected forecasts ‘mug’s bets? Surely?

Of course we don’t know how both horses are going to perform come the festival in March, and how that might affect their 2022 odds, and ‘double markets’. But I fail to see looking ahead, with more than one eye on the current 2021 markets for these 2 horses, coupled with their obvious and indisputable ability thus far, should serve as an adverse way not to notice that over the last month there has been some serious value for just 15 months time for these two horses.

I’d be pretty sure Gordon and Nicky’s stable staff have been looking at those markets for 2022 with more than a twinkle in their eye over the last few weeks.

[Madmoose]

Great bet which i’m not on but imagine how good this bet could look after Cheltenham when they both win but then Envoi steps up to 3 miles at Punchestown and looks as good as he has been, surely then he will be pushed down the GC route.

[Eggs]

.....Shishkin and Envoi form the basis of so many of these bets (mine included). Perhaps stating the obvious, but I can imagine firms will take a real kicking if both turn up and win. So much hinging on those two races.

[The King Pimm]

.....Shishkin and Envoi form the basis of so many of these bets (mine included). Perhaps stating the obvious, but I can imagine firms will take a real kicking if both turn up and win. So much hinging on those two races.

I agree but the flip side is that if Shiskin or Envoi get injured then so many bets will be wiped out. I’ve got 16 RAB’s or Specials involving Shiskin & Envoi winning, I think the Bookies are still in a stronger position just in this

[Faugheen_Machine]

I agree but the flip side is that if Shiskin or Envoi get injured then so many bets will be wiped out. I’ve got 16 RAB’s or Specials involving Shiskin & Envoi winning, I think the Bookies are still in a stronger position just in this

Some of the early request a bets look really good now, considering the EA/Shishkin double is around 7/2.

I'd imagine Sky will lose a fair chunk of those two win as they are connected with so many horses.

[Istabraq]

Some of the early request a bets look really good now, considering the EA/Shishkin double is around 7/2.

I'd imagine Sky will lose a fair chunk of those two win as they are connected with so many horses.

I'd love to see the Sky P&L for their Cheltenham RABs, I reckon it could be that 90% of those that get added in the previous calendar year are non runners, and therefore complete profit for Sky, we all get lured in by the big prices and coupled with the free bets they throw out this must have been marketing gold for them...

[EnvoyAllen]

Personally, if anyone is still thinking of ‘playing’ (a term, none the less, i hate - it’s not like you’re playing Call of Duty on your brand new PlayStation 5.....) the Shishkin/Envoi Allen double market, then surely it’s worth avoiding the 7/2 price and looking at the ‘both horses to win by 1 length’ @ 8/1 price.

Surely that’s the way to play this specific market???

I’d like to think that it’s justifiable reward of more than 55% mark up on the 7/2 with the contingency of both horses winning by less than a length (should they of course both win) is certainly a lot less than 55%.

It has to be the market to consider, surely, for those still circling that specific double?

I remember walking in to the Cheltenham gates on the Wednesday of the festival meeting in 2018 and being presented with 7/2 on the Altior & Samcro Queen Mother/Ballymore double.

We might not be looking at 7/2 on the day for this one. 2/1 might even have to suffice.

[charlie]

Personally, if anyone is still thinking of ‘playing’ (a term, none the less, i hate - it’s not like you’re playing Call of Duty on your brand new PlayStation 5.....) the Shishkin/Envoi Allen double market, then surely it’s worth avoiding the 7/2 price and looking at the ‘both horses to win by 1 length’ @ 8/1 price.

Surely that’s the way to play this specific market???

I’d like to think that it’s justifiable reward of more than 55% mark up on the 7/2 with the contingency of both horses winning by less than a length (should they of course both win) is certainly a lot less than 55%.

It has to be the market to consider, surely, for those still circling that specific double?

I remember walking in to the Cheltenham gates on the Wednesday of the festival meeting in 2018 and being presented with 7/2 on the Altior & Samcro Queen Mother/Ballymore double.

We might not be looking at 7/2 on the day for this one. 2/1 might even have to suffice.

Interesting that's been cut from the 11 I took a few weeks ago.

There are some really detailed posts 4-5 pages back on this re average winning margins, fav records etc

[jono]

I don't tend to get sucked into too many of these request a bets but I have been approaching it much like EnvoyAllen and loading up most days on a combination of Envoi / Shishkin bets, for me mostly since November. I'll add to my diary later for reference.

I do think there will be very little wiggle room come the 20th March 2021 for both Shishkin and Envoi Allen. (IF they win of course).
And I know there's no way I just leave them be and not want them onside. Envoi Allen is arguably the best horse in training and could become one of the greats.
Shishkin looks equally as exciting and would be going into open company where the top 3 in the market this year would be 10, 12 and 11years old in 2022.

So I too have looked to get in early. I have no real issue betting this far in advance. I'll happily start adding bets for the following years festivals the day after and actually betting for the next years festival in the immediate aftermath of the current festival performances is something I always try and have in mind, but largely gets forgotten when swept up in the moment / on course. So add another 3-4 months isn't a bother to me.

That said I do view the potential for injury slightly different. For me the greater risk of injury will always come in the weeks/month leading up to the festival. When the work really ramps up. So for these bets specifically, they have to get past 2 rounds of that, which does increase the risk in my eyes anyway.

I've been working on the basis that if they both win in 2021, I think we'll be looking at:

Shishkin 5/2 Champion Chase
Envoi Allen 5/1 Gold Cup

Or at best around

Shishkin 3/1 Champion Chase
Envoi Allen 6/1 Gold Cup

I'm not sure there's too much juice in a lot of the RaB's anymore based on them being the prices I believe. Minus the 66/1 for the 2022 double is still very generous (makes the triple figure prices look mad) and is really the only stand out right now for me.
Even the quadruple is about right imo.
As soon as these combination bets get close to the odds of you manually adding them, i'd always side on the latter as you have the benefit of judging the bet at each stage and reacting accordingly.

[EnvoyAllen]

I don't tend to get sucked into too many of these request a bets but I have been approaching it much like EnvoyAllen and loading up most days on a combination of Envoi / Shishkin bets, for me mostly since November. I'll add to my diary later for reference.

I do think there will be very little wiggle room come the 20th March 2021 for both Shishkin and Envoi Allen. (IF they win of course).
And I know there's no way I just leave them be and not want them onside. Envoi Allen is arguably the best horse in training and could become one of the greats.
Shishkin looks equally as exciting and would be going into open company where the top 3 in the market this year would be 10, 12 and 11years old in 2022.

So I too have looked to get in early. I have no real issue betting this far in advance. I'll happily start adding bets for the following years festivals the day after and actually betting for the next years festival in the immediate aftermath of the current festival performances is something I always try and have in mind, but largely gets forgotten when swept up in the moment / on course. So add another 3-4 months isn't a bother to me.

That said I do view the potential for injury slightly different. For me the greater risk of injury will always come in the weeks/month leading up to the festival. When the work really ramps up. So for these bets specifically, they have to get past 2 rounds of that, which does increase the risk in my eyes anyway.

I've been working on the basis that if they both win in 2021, I think we'll be looking at:

Shishkin 5/2 Champion Chase
Envoi Allen 5/1 Gold Cup

Or at best around

Shishkin 3/1 Champion Chase
Envoi Allen 6/1 Gold Cup

I'm not sure there's too much juice in a lot of the RaB's anymore based on them being the prices I believe. Minus the 66/1 for the 2022 double is still very generous (makes the triple figure prices look mad) and is really the only stand out right now for me.
Even the quadruple is about right imo.
As soon as these combination bets get close to the odds of you manually adding them, i'd always side on the latter as you have the benefit of judging the bet at each stage and reacting accordingly.

Mr Jono,

I’ve got those exact figures you’ve quoted (as a predicted 2022 opening quote should they win their 2021 festival races). 3/1 tops for Shishkin and 6/1 for Envoi Allen. So to gamble a touch and take the 66/1 available currently for the 2022 double is still good value to me,despite the plummet from 225/1 over the last fortnight.

And for those who read these threads and say ‘How on earth can you be confident (affecting their prices for the 2022 double) they’ll even win at the 2021 festival?

I very much can’t.

But the bookmakers seem to be.

And that’s why a 7/2 double for March 2021 may now not be the bet to be on. One eye on 15 months might now be the preferred way into the market.

[Eggs]

.....Ferny being part of many RaBs will already be a big boost for firms.

[The King Pimm]

.....Ferny being part of many RaBs will already be a big boost for firms.

I had him in 4, they looked really good value a few weeks ago but on the fire they burn

[jonthehammer]

5 for me, mainly frees but still hurts when they looked so good.