2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Saxon Warrior]

On official ratings, Royale Pagaille has 15 lbs in hand of Galvin

Only 12 lbs on RPR's? *clutching*


Galvin last two wins on "good" ground, Royale needs heavy? right? Please?



Gonna be a tough watch as a Galvin fan if RP turns up here.

On a Festival Preview Night on the thread above Paul Webber said that Joe Chambers told him its either the NHC or the Gold Cup, based on the ground.

If its goodish ground then he would go to the NHC, if its (very) soft then he would go to the Gold Cup.

[charlie]

On a Festival Preview Night on the thread above Paul Weber said that Joe Chambers told him its either the NHC or the GOld Cup, based on the ground.

If its goodish ground then he would go to the NHC, if its (very) soft then he would go to the Gold Cup.

Given the current state of the ground + the forecast, its easy to see why Good to Soft is currently 1.31 on Betfair. Based on that, plus what's been said, I'd say he's now far more likely to go here

[Saxon Warrior]

Given the current state of the ground + the forecast, its easy to see why Good to Soft is currently 1.31 on Betfair. Based on that, plus what's been said, I'd say he's now far more likely to go here

they could get stuck between a rock and a hard place if its going to be Good to Soft on Tuesday but forecast heavy rain from Wednesday onwards.

[archie]

they could get stuck between a rock and a hard place if its going to be Good to Soft on Tuesday but forecast heavy rain from Wednesday onwards.

Metcheck only predicting about 3.5mm this week with another 3.5mm next Sunday. More or less dry after that.

[FinalFurlong91]

they could get stuck between a rock and a hard place if its going to be Good to Soft on Tuesday but forecast heavy rain from Wednesday onwards.

Only looks like light showers on BBC weather

[YoungHustler]

He's getting tons of help with horse after horse either not going Cheltenham, or opting for other races. Latest Exhibition and Next Destination won't go here, with RP potentially going GC. He could easily end up 2nd fav. He was 33/1 5 weeks ago

The better going will also very much be in his favour imo.

[Saxon Warrior]

He's getting tons of help with horse after horse either not going Cheltenham, or opting for other races. Latest Exhibition and Next Destination won't go here, with RP potentially going GC. He could easily end up 2nd fav. He was 33/1 5 weeks ago

Yep, there's not usually many horses who are proven to like 3M6F before the tapes go up in the NHC.

I wouldnt go strong on any horse here if its only ran over 3M to date.

I've backed Longhouse Poet a while ago at a big price, in case he came here, along with Escaria Ten, both as cover for my much earlier main bet on Galvin.

5 months is a heck of a break for Galvin, who knows whether its a great plan or not.

I'm getting warmer on my two cover bets now, and happy to have the three still left in so far- he says crossing his fingers

[Istabraq]

5 months is a heck of a break for Galvin, who knows whether its a great plan or not.

I thought the same but someone (can't remember who) pointed out that there have been a few win this off long breaks.
Ravenhill, Chicago Grey, Back in Focus and Tiger Roll all won with a break of 75 or more days and Tiger Rolls absence was five months, so I'm not as worried now as I once was...

[robith]

Might be tough to know with all that's gone on - but has there been any insight if Escaria Ten is gonna rock up here? Got a bet I can cash but its not NRNB and its agonising me

[Cashew King]

Might be tough to know with all that's gone on - but has there been any insight if Escaria Ten is gonna rock up here? Got a bet I can cash but its not NRNB and its agonising me

This was the last I saw - last week on Max’s Twitter when asked if Escaria Ten was going Ultima or NHC

“. No need to make any decision yet.”

[robith]

This was the last I saw - last week on Max’s Twitter when asked if Escaria Ten was going Ultima or NHC

“. No need to make any decision yet.”

No, there is! There really is!

(Thanks)

[ToniC]

Might be tough to know with all that's gone on - but has there been any insight if Escaria Ten is gonna rock up here? Got a bet I can cash but its not NRNB and its agonising me

He was tipped for the ultima on a preview night by somebody who you’d think would know. I’m sure it was the one with Davy & Paul Nolan on. I can’t remember who said it or the exact quote though, sorry!

edit: Jamie codd said he’d fancy him in either the ultima or the brown advisory. Basically was saying he’d fancy him wherever he turned up, but they were the two he named & he put up Galvin for the 4 miler at the same time, said he would have been his ride of the week.

[Cashew King]

He was tipped for the ultima on a preview night by somebody who you’d think would know. I’m sure it was the one with Davy & Paul Nolan on. I can’t remember who said it or the exact quote though, sorry!

edit: Jamie codd said he’d fancy him in either the ultima or the brown advisory. Basically was saying he’d fancy him wherever he turned up, but they were the two he named & he put up Galvin for the 4 miler at the same time, said he would have been his ride of the week.

Keith Donoghue ( in his blog) also suggested to follow wherever he goes but suggested the NHC was most likely!

For me he looks like a horse that will excel at longer distances. I get Max sponsors the Ultima but on the old course over around 3 miles on decent ground I think there will be more horses competitive. So, for me the NHC would suit better - plus this year he can have Heskin on top so not reliant on getting Codd/O’Connor to not be disadvantaged - IMO

[ToniC]

Keith Donoghue ( in his blog) also suggested to follow wherever he goes but suggested the NHC was most likely!

For me he looks like a horse that will excel at longer distances. I get Max sponsors the Ultima but on the old course over around 3 miles on decent ground I think there will be more horses competitive. So, for me the NHC would suit better - plus this year he can have Heskin on top so not reliant on getting Codd/O’Connor to not be disadvantaged - IMO

He’d have been a lot more competitive in the ultima off 140 that’s for sure I’m biased as I’ve backed him for the ultima; but I do think in a level weights contest he’d come off worse with Galvin whose had his entire season mapped out around this race from the word go, and royale pagaille who would simply be a class above anything else in the race

[TigerRolllllll]

If Galvin had left, would make sense to have Escaria or Pencil in this race? Who will Elliot’s horse be? (Sorry - Sneezy’s horse)