2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Istabraq]

The King Pimm
The race was a G3 until a few years ago and every year since it became a G2 it’s been hock deep ground so the classy stayers generally take in the old RSA rather than a brutal 4 miler/3m6f.
I think the first year it was a G2 you had Minella Rocco beating Native River and everyone thought it would develop into a proper Gold Cup trial for novices, I think the ground has prevented that from being the case since...

[charlie]

I cant see any form that suggests he is remotely close to being a proper grade 1 horse

Where does running now 163 rated Imperial Aura to a couple of lengths at Cheltenham with a 1lbs weight swing feature in your not 'remotely close to being a proper grade 1 horse'?

[Garrison Savannah]

Where would Tiger Roll have finished in a Gold Cup? You’d have trouble convincing me he wasn’t good enough for a place in 2018 or 2019.

[Istabraq]

Where would Tiger Roll have finished in a Gold Cup? You’d have trouble convincing me he wasn’t good enough for a place in 2018 or 2019.

Was a hot topic in here after his 4 miler win, I’m with you, would have been placed at worse in at least one...

[Kevloaf]

What makes you think he hasn't run to merit in a novice G1, or at Ayr at 11/10? Can see it during his chase days alright. But i still wouldn't think he'd be near Monkfish.

I'm a backer, but remember questioning people when they said he could be as strong a fav as Carefully Selected. He's got the trainer, unlucky not to have the jockey, but hasn't the "hot" form for me.

By his whole career, I mean in every race he hasn't, I don't mean he hasn't tried in 'any' ever...


I personally don't think he'll end up a Gold Cup horse, but I don't think Latest Exhibition would either.


I think Latest Exhibition would probably beat him over 3m, but I'm just saying the trainers are the main reason they've had these campaigns over it being clear and obvious which one is better.

Latest Exhibition would be fav for a handicap IMO if trained by Gordon....Gordy's Fury Road isn't even coming over and he ties in...

[Hurricane fly]

I see it as a GN trial not a GC trial personally

[FinalFurlong91]

Where does running now 163 rated Imperial Aura to a couple of lengths at Cheltenham with a 1lbs weight swing feature in your not 'remotely close to being a proper grade 1 horse'?

Imperial aura hasnt proved hes a grade 1 horse either tbf

Hes beaten itchy feet and Windsor avenue

[Carnage at Taunton]

Imperial aura hasnt proved hes a grade 1 horse either tbf

Hes beaten itchy feet and Windsor avenue

That’s a fair point, and IFeet ain’t jumped a fence property all season. I’ve thought all season that IA has been too short.
Melon is in a different class and if Mr Fisher gets his ground he’s a very interesting one at the prices, I hope to see a positive ride from Nico and if so expect a big run on decent ground

[charlie]

I cant see any form that suggests he is remotely close to being a proper grade 1 horse

his form this season

he beat 121 rated stablemate make my heart fly

hes beaten waitnsee rated 125 twice by 1 length and 3 lengths

who was beaten 85 lengths by pencillfulloflead
23 lengths by colreevy
58 lengths by elimay

then won a weak race at cheltenham, beating soldier of love who had won a few races round Bangor and newton abbot, albeit easily

And now he wont have the advantage of Jamie codd

gonna put my neck on the line here and say he is the worst favourite of the week (you should all be delighted as this will mean he is bound to win)

Galvin doesn't need to be a proper grade 1 horse to win this though - I don't think anyone is saying he's at that level.

The above form analysis shows how much you don't like Galvin

Knocking the form of wins far more comfortable than the winning margin suggests, and taking a form line through a 125 rated chaser and scrutinising subsequent long distance defeats. That might help you try and make a case (and I know you specifically said 'this season'), but what about his run behind now 163 rated Imperial Aura at Cheltenham? He comfortably beat a number of chasers now rated in the 150's?

'Then won a weak race at cheltenham' - I mean, it wasn't exactly deep, but the two horses he beat comfortably were 9 from their last 9. He's won by 7L going away, easily.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Galvin doesn't need to be a proper grade 1 horse to win this though - I don't think anyone is saying he's at that level.

The above form analysis shows how much you don't like Galvin

Knocking the form of wins far more comfortable than the winning margin suggests, and taking a form line through a 125 rated chaser and scrutinising subsequent long distance defeats. That might help you try and make a case (and I know you specifically said 'this season'), but what about his run behind now 163 rated Imperial Aura at Cheltenham? He comfortably beat a number of chasers now rated in the 150's?

'Then won a weak race at cheltenham' - I mean, it wasn't exactly deep, but the two horses he beat comfortably were 9 from their last 9. He's won by 7L going away, easily.

Hi Charlie
i may be wrong but is not this Galvin thing all about the trainer and being aimed here all season, rather than form? Not saying he ain’t got form that gives him a fair chance, but a lot of stuff I’ve read seems to focus on the trainer and the early clear intentions?

[Quevega]

Hi Charlie
i may be wrong but is not this Galvin thing all about the trainer and being aimed here all season, rather than form? Not saying he ain’t got form that gives him a fair chance, but a lot of stuff I’ve read seems to focus on the trainer and the early clear intentions?

Totally agree.
He's an unusual favourite in that regard.
It gave antepost punters so much confidence early on.
But charlie is right, in that the form of his cheltenham run last season is very good and was the only race he's probably been 100% ripe for, also.

[charlie]

Hi Charlie
i may be wrong but is not this Galvin thing all about the trainer and being aimed here all season, rather than form? Not saying he ain’t got form that gives him a fair chance, but a lot of stuff I’ve read seems to focus on the trainer and the early clear intentions?

Gordon targeting the race early cannot be used as a substitute to make a case on form, but then Galvin being put away after easy wins doesn't mean the only form we have are facile wins in easy chases in Jul/Aug/Sep/Oct. We all know those races aren't very competitive and tantamount to schooling for horses like Galvin, but there are strong pieces of form where you can look at Galvin and can confidently say 'that's a 150's chaser'. Cheltenham last year told us that, twice. As Q said, he's an unusual favourite and I can understand opposing him on current price, but he's a very good horse that clearly loves running around Cheltenham, which is half the battle won when weighing up prospects for a race like this, and most the market principles have never even jumped a fence at Cheltenham. The lay off (fresh), the targeting, the back form, the experience, the age, the profile - all collectively makes him an attractive proposition IMO.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Gordon targeting the race early cannot be used as a substitute to make a case on form, but then Galvin being put away after easy wins doesn't mean the only form we have are facile wins in easy chases in Jul/Aug/Sep/Oct. We all know those races aren't very competitive and tantamount to schooling for horses like Galvin, but there are strong pieces of form where you can look at Galvin and can confidently say 'that's a 150's chaser'. Cheltenham last year told us that, twice. As Q said, he's an unusual favourite and I can understand opposing him on current price, but he's a very good horse that clearly loves running around Cheltenham, which is half the battle won when weighing up prospects for a race like this, and most the market principles have never even jumped a fence at Cheltenham. The lay off (fresh), the targeting, the back form, the experience, the age, the profile - all collectively makes him an attractive proposition IMO.

Thanks Charlie

[Istabraq]

Gordon targeting the race early cannot be used as a substitute to make a case on form, but then Galvin being put away after easy wins doesn't mean the only form we have are facile wins

This is exactly what they did with Put the Kettle On and she virtually disappeared off the radar after an early season Cheltenham win, Galvin does the same and is a high profile fav.
Last years Arkle proved the strategy can work, the only difference I think is their owners/trainers and this no doubt impacts the market...

[ToniC]

This is exactly what they did with Put the Kettle On and she virtually disappeared off the radar after an early season Cheltenham win, Galvin does the same and is a high profile fav.
Last years Arkle proved the strategy can work, the only difference I think is their owners/trainers and this no doubt impacts the market...

It’s not just that. He ticks about every trend going for the race too. Plus the similarities with past winners of this race for Gordon in terms of his campaign. A lot of the others will be lining up here either because they’re not good enough for the RSA or because that’s just how their season has turned out. I’ve no doubt Gordon had this race in mind for Galvin from the moment he realised he wasn’t catching imperial aura up the hill in the close brothers last year (I just didn’t twig on at the time & missed some of the bigger prices a lot on here did )