2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

[charlie]

Ryanair Novice Gold Cup at Fairyhouse would be the more preferred IMO. Its a Grade 1 to begin with, NHC is a G2. Yes, prize money is a little less for the RGC, but it cuts out the added cost and stress of sending a team to Cheltenham. Its run over 2M4F so you're not flogging the horse. It's probably easier to win also as in Paul Nolan's mind, outside of Monkfish and EA, there isn't a better staying novice chaser in UK & Ireland than his fella - right now, his main competition could be Andy Dufresne and/or Asterion Forlonge.
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They know he stays 3M on the new course and can perform at Chelt already via the AB.

You'd have LE over RP over 3m? I certainly wouldn't.

[FinalFurlong91]

You'd have LE over RP over 3m? I certainly wouldn't.

Until we see royalle pagaille in a graded race id definitely have latest exhibition over him

Latest exhibition is a proven novice hurdle and novice chase grade 1 performer

Royal pagaille won a Mickey mouse handicap where one of his main rivals fell and the other didn't run

[PresentingPercy]

You'd have LE over RP over 3m? I certainly wouldn't.

Honestly, if all four rocked up in the RSA, I would have Royale as the outsider to finish in the top 3.. Different story perhaps over a longer trip than 3M.

[charlie]

My point (I should have just said it) is if you go off ratings 'there isn't a better staying novice chaser in UK & Ireland than his fella' is not true.

RP was just an example on ratings, but the above intimates that LE is well clear of other novice chasers, when he's not on ratings, nor do I think he is ability wise.

There's lots of talk about class re LE, but I don't think there is anywhere near the gulf in ability separating Latest Exhibition from some of the others quoted either here, or the RSA.

He's a very good horse, of course, and from a price point of view I'd back LE over Galvin in this at 8/1 vs 7/2, but if both were 5/1 I'd happily side with Galvin.

[Milbear0]

Galvin has only ran over 3m twice, and completed once. He certainly gives the impression of enjoying the extended trip but in comparison with LE’s form over 3m hurdles and fences both, he hasn’t done anything to deserve being a shorter price barring seeing Gordy’s chirpy face every day.
Off level weights with no Codd factor it’s LE all day for me.

[jack1092]

There's lots of talk about class re LE, but I don't think there is anywhere near the gulf in ability separating Latest Exhibition from some of the others quoted either here, or the RSA.

He's a very good horse, of course, and from a price point of view I'd back LE over Galvin in this at 8/1 vs 7/2, but if both were 5/1 I'd happily side with Galvin.

Surprised by that.

I'd say on all evidence we have, LE has proven himself a classier horse than Galvin.

Could Galvin, finish in a line in a AB? 3L to Monkfish? 3ls over 2miles to Aba?

Galvin might well prove himself to be the "profile" needed to win a NHC, i hope he is for my bets, but just looking on paper, he looks below LE.

Ravenhill looked a fair bit of CS as well though and look what happened.

[charlie]

Surprised by that.

I'd say on all evidence we have, LE has proven himself a classier horse than Galvin.

Could Galvin, finish in a line in a AB? 3L to Monkfish? 3ls over 2miles to Aba?

Galvin might well prove himself to be the "profile" needed to win a NHC, i hope he is for my bets, but just looking on paper, he looks below LE.

Ravenhill looked a fair bit of CS as well though and look what happened.

All minor points that collectively make Galvin a more attractive option that LE IMO:

The classier horse angle rarely prevails in this race - I feel like you've answered this bit for me
LE has no chase experience at Cheltenham. Galvin won well over fences at Cheltenham.
If LE does end up here it's by default and not because the Nolan's planned this. For Galvin the sight has been firmly set on this race.
LE has already been beaten this season by a horse with the same rating at Galvin. Both are low 150's chasers
LE has had a tough season for a Novice chasing around after Monkfish. Galvin will come here fresh.

[TCH29]

All minor points that collectively make Galvin a more attractive option that LE IMO:

The classier horse angle rarely prevails in this race - I feel like you've answered this bit for me
LE has no chase experience at Cheltenham. Galvin won well over fences at Cheltenham.
If LE does end up here it's by default and not because the Nolan's planned this. For Galvin the sight has been firmly set on this race.
LE has already been beaten this season by a horse with the same rating at Galvin. Both are low 150's chasers
LE has had a tough season for a Novice chasing around after Monkfish. Galvin will come here fresh.

I love LE and like many was on that train thanks to your good self, I believe, Charlie.

But I’m not sure he’d stay the NHC trip. His run and loss against Pencilfulloflead bothered me; yes, the ground was a bog, but he just didn’t look to stay. Equally he’s off the bridle relatively early for a 3m chaser, I find. Okay, he’s been racing for 12 months against a superstar that Galvin is not. But with his wins over 2-3m I see LE as more of a classy, versatile animal than a marathon trip type. Probably wrong, but I’m just not sure he’ll stay the extra trip up the hill.

[FinalFurlong91]

I dont think galvin is a dour stayer though so I'm not sure that angle works

He is a classy type himself, he had the cruising speed and turn of foot to finish second in a 2m4f festival handicap

And on all known evidence hes a good few lbs below on latest exhibition (yes he got beat by Pencilfulloflead but that was right handed on bottomless ground that LE doesn't like)

The dour stayers that often beat the classy types seem more like longhouse poet and Pencilfulloflead

It doesn't look like LE will run and I'm very happy to take galvin on with the two I mentioned

The form of longhouse poet in particular is stacking up

[TCH29]

Yeah, fair point FF. I’m not sure Galvin is bomb proof either but he’s at least been targeted at it, which means they must think he’ll stay.

I have him covered, but I would like to see Pencilfulloflead run here. Think he ticks quite a few boxes, although not sure he wants it too firm.

[Kevloaf]

Surprised by that.

I'd say on all evidence we have, LE has proven himself a classier horse than Galvin.

Could Galvin, finish in a line in a AB? 3L to Monkfish? 3ls over 2miles to Aba?

Galvin might well prove himself to be the "profile" needed to win a NHC, i hope he is for my bets, but just looking on paper, he looks below LE.

Ravenhill looked a fair bit of CS as well though and look what happened.

I think Galvin has been campaigned completely differently. I don't think he's been running on merit his whole career.

If you swapped trainers, LE might have had a similar campaign and Galvin might look better than he's shown so far.



They might not, I would think Latest Exhibition is a better horse personally at this stage but it's clear to me we don't know Galvin's ceiling yet, LE has been campaigned much more openly.

[Lobos]

I don't think people realise how highly they rate Galvin. Gordon and co think he is Graded class and he certainly would not look out of place in the RSA. He's a hugely improved horse this year from last. I would not be at all surprised if he was targeted at next year's GC.

[FinalFurlong91]

I cant see any form that suggests he is remotely close to being a proper grade 1 horse

his form this season

he beat 121 rated stablemate make my heart fly

hes beaten waitnsee rated 125 twice by 1 length and 3 lengths

who was beaten 85 lengths by pencillfulloflead
23 lengths by colreevy
58 lengths by elimay

then won a weak race at cheltenham, beating soldier of love who had won a few races round Bangor and newton abbot, albeit easily

And now he wont have the advantage of Jamie codd

gonna put my neck on the line here and say he is the worst favourite of the week (you should all be delighted as this will mean he is bound to win)

[jack1092]

I think Galvin has been campaigned completely differently. I don't think he's been running on merit his whole career.

If you swapped trainers, LE might have had a similar campaign and Galvin might look better than he's shown so far.



They might not, I would think Latest Exhibition is a better horse personally at this stage but it's clear to me we don't know Galvin's ceiling yet, LE has been campaigned much more openly.

What makes you think he hasn't run to merit in a novice G1, or at Ayr at 11/10? Can see it during his chase days alright. But i still wouldn't think he'd be near Monkfish.

I'm a backer, but remember questioning people when they said he could be as strong a fav as Carefully Selected. He's got the trainer, unlucky not to have the jockey, but hasn't the "hot" form for me.

[The King Pimm]

Do you need to be a Grade 1 horse to win the NHC? I don’t think so, if you did then more superstars would use it as a platform in their careers. What a horse does need to win this race is assured jumping, rhythm, stamina and the right attitude to keep focussed so not tiring before the hill. Lots of horses struggle in this race because they are still novices and not quite ready but I think Galvin will be fine and a rightful Fav if RP doesn’t turn up. The race is looking a lot more competitive than it was in December but Galvin had got no worse during that period. It’s a massive positive that Elliot plotted this race for him from the start of the season because he’s had all season to prepare unlike other horses who are being diverted to it because they are not good enough to compete in other races.