2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Nortons who]

I can't find the exact quote but I remember Rich Ricci saying that one of his big regrets was Vautour not running in the Gold Cup and IMO this could influence him to chance the GC with RP.

[Lobos]

Has Rich Ricci ever had a runner in the 4 miler ?

He has. At least 1 anyway in Rathvindens race. Didn't check further !

[Muswell]

The one Katie rode that was a nightmare all the way round

[Lobos]

The one Katie rode that was a nightmare all the way round

Yep. Pylonthepressure. Finished 5th.

[Muswell]

I can't find the exact quote but I remember Rich Ricci saying that one of his big regrets was Vautour not running in the Gold Cup and IMO this could influence him to chance the GC with RP.

this was the day that rich and I fell out forever

[Kevloaf]

Has Rich Ricci ever had a runner in the 4 miler ?

He has. At least 1 anyway in Rathvindens race. Didn't check further !

Pont Alexandre as well....


Not a good experience for the owner in the race.



The notion the 'owner' calls the shots with Willie is not even laughable, it's just wrong.

We don't have the evidence for him with Venetia, however, I;d be absolutely fucking flabbergasted if Rich Ricci (or his silent wife) decided where this horse went. If anything VW will say "I wanna go Gold Cup" and he will get giddy and talk to Matt Chapman about it, and the horse becomes the shortest and worst price in history on form.

[Smiley]

Sorry if this is not even feasible, but VW mentioned about seeing what handicapper does with his weight! Is a tilt at the national a possibility? Asking the question rather than trying to second guess!
If it was I’d say the national hunt would be preferred option and best prep for it! A tilt at gold cup this year could ruin its mark for future years, but again if they think they have gold cup winner I’m sure everything I’ve written will be redundant!
didn’t see it quoted anywhere for national to add

[Quevega]

I can't find the exact quote but I remember Rich Ricci saying that one of his big regrets was Vautour not running in the Gold Cup and IMO this could influence him to chance the GC with RP.

He's been really unlucky with the race with Djackadam too.
Not to forget the injuries that cost Faugheen and Douvan their chance's.

The conversation will go something like this.

The Ricci's - "Do you think he's good enough to challenge in a Gold cup" ?

Venetia - "Yes".

End of conversation.

At no stage would the Ricci's be saying.

"But we'd love to win a NH chase, what do you think about that" ?

Of course Venetia could say No or I don't know.
And she may agree with some on here that the races hes' won and his rating earned is more a reflection of right time right place.
And perhaps is not a true reflection of his ability vs other Grade 1 horses he will come up against in a Gold Cup.

But it seems pretty certain that if the handicapper rates him mid 160's on Tuesday then he'll take his chance in the Gold cup.

[Istabraq]

Just out of interest does anyone know how close the Ricci's and the Donnelly's are ?

[Quevega]

Just out of interest does anyone know how close the Ricci's and the Donnelly's are ?

whats the thought process here ?
As I've tried to follow it and I'm not having it one bit.

[Istabraq]

whats the thought process here ?
As I've tried to follow it and I'm not having it one bit.

It’s a wild one Q but if they’re regular dinner party guests RP may be considered a threat to ABP making history and knowing they have a young horse who should have multiple attempts in the future they may consider sidestepping the Gold Cup and bank a favour.
I did say it was wild....

[ComplyOrDie]

It’s a wild one Q but if they’re regular dinner party guests RP may be considered a threat to ABP making history and knowing they have a young horse who should have multiple attempts in the future they may consider sidestepping the Gold Cup and bank a favour.
I did say it was wild....

Whilst we're talking wild ones....

Didn't the Donnelly's reject RR's offer for Melon prior to the his debut or Supreme, can't remember which? Maybe this is payback

[Spectre]

I've reflected on this overnight and fully considered what I'd do in their shoes.

First I'd want to know if I was going to the Gold Cup with a realistic chance of winning. I think this was what Venetia was eluding too when she wanted to see what mark the handicapper gives him. I think he'll get high 160's without touching 170, and I'm going to assume he needs to find 7-8lbs of improvement to beat Al Boum Photo based on how the handicapper assesses him. Then I'd look at the next best horses in the market and I'd realise I'm the third highest rated of those believed to have a chance. Al Boum Photo 175, Santini 170.

Second I'd want to see how other novices have fared that were thought to have a genuine chance. Coneygree won after three chase starts, and Gloria Victis fell and sadly lost his life. The contrast is stark, and there's no doubt Gloria Victis will be part of their thought process.

Third I'd consider how well he's equipped for the race, particualrly given his novice status like the two above. So I'd compare against last seasons novices, and then quickly realise that of those with a chance Royale Pagaille has had 11 chases so far, Minella Indo 6, and Champ 5. He's easily the most experienced. That's a double edged sword though because they potentially have more improvement in them too of course and they will be just behind him in the ratings. But Iin addition that Santini who was second last year has still only had 8 chase starts, and the dual winner Al Boum Photo has only had one more than Royale Pagaille with 12. In other words he's not out of place in the race at all based on experience. Gloria Victis for info had 6 chase starts before his ill fated run, and had also been tested outside of novice company earning a RPR rating when beating Marlborough 10 lenghts and giving him 15lbs, which at face value is more than Royale Pagaille has achieved so far in open company. That horse was going to be a monster, but don't start me on that road..............

Third is he's still young and he's only 7. How have other 7 year olds fared? Well that ones simple given two of the last horses to win the Gold Cup were aged 7, and you don't have to go too far back to find Long Run in 2011 as a 6 year old winner. And too top it off Rich Ricci owned Djakadam who finished second in the race as a 6 year old and 7 year old, so in fact age could easily be considered as a positive.

So what would I do if I were Rich Ricci and Venetia Williams? I'd consider whether I can genuinely win the race? Because if not I'd go for the easier alternative. With all the evidence though, I think I would easily convince myself that my horse has a genuine chance of winning, and there's only one Gold Cup. There's no reason why RP can't beat last years novices, and he looks a better horse than Santini anyway. So it's Al Boum Photo to consider, who's going for a hat trick in the race and a horse to be feared, given he's higher rated and also been there and done that. Twice! But he's one horse, and the gap in ratings is not insurmountable, and anything can happen in the race. RP can still improve, ABP needs to run to his previous lofty ratings and also be error free.

So in conclusion as an owner I would take the 'no regrets' route and would 100% go for the Gold Cup. The image of Gloria Victis may be in my mind, but I've been down this path before with Djakadam and hit the crossbar twice, and Djakadam was less experienced than Royale Pagaille. Also RP was chasing early so there's a good chance he will regress earlier than a typical store horse.

Is that what I want them to do for my bets? No. But I think he at least places in a Gold Cup and I'll be backing him no runner no bet accoringly.

[Rooster Booster]

I've reflected on this overnight and fully considered what I'd do in their shoes.

First I'd want to know if I was going to the Gold Cup with a realistic chance of winning. I think this was what Venetia was eluding too when she wanted to see what mark the handicapper gives him. I think he'll get high 160's without touching 170, and I'm going to assume he needs to find 7-8lbs of improvement to beat Al Boum Photo based on how the handicapper assesses him. Then I'd look at the next best horses in the market and I'd realise I'm the third highest rated of those believed to have a chance. Al Boum Photo 175, Santini 170.

Second I'd want to see how other novices have fared that were thought to have a genuine chance. Coneygree won after three chase starts, and Gloria Victis fell and sadly lost his life. The contrast is stark, and there's no doubt Gloria Victis will be part of their thought process.

Third I'd consider how well he's equipped for the race, particualrly given his novice status like the two above. So I'd compare against last seasons novices, and then quickly realise that of those with a chance Royale Pagaille has had 11 chases so far, Minella Indo 6, and Champ 5. He's easily the most experienced. That's a double edged sword though because they potentially have more improvement in them too of course and they will be just behind him in the ratings. But Iin addition that Santini who was second last year has still only had 8 chase starts, and the dual winner Al Boum Photo has only had one more than Royale Pagaille with 12. In other words he's not out of place in the race at all based on experience. Gloria Victis for info had 6 chase starts before his ill fated run, and had also been tested outside of novice company earning a RPR rating when beating Marlborough 10 lenghts and giving him 15lbs, which at face value is more than Royale Pagaille has achieved so far in open company. That horse was going to be a monster, but don't start me on that road..............

Third is he's still young and he's only 7. How have other 7 year olds fared? Well that ones simple given two of the last horses to win the Gold Cup were aged 7, and you don't have to go too far back to find Long Run in 2011 as a 6 year old winner. And too top it off Rich Ricci owned Djakadam who finished second in the race as a 6 year old and 7 year old, so in fact age could easily be considered as a positive.

So what would I do if I were Rich Ricci and Venetia Williams? I'd consider whether I can genuinely win the race? Because if not I'd go for the easier alternative. With all the evidence though, I think I would easily convince myself that my horse has a genuine chance of winning, and there's only one Gold Cup. There's no reason why RP can't beat last years novices, and he looks a better horse than Santini anyway. So it's Al Boum Photo to consider, who's going for a hat trick in the race and a horse to be feared, given he's higher rated and also been there and done that. Twice! But he's one horse, and the gap in ratings is not insurmountable, and anything can happen in the race. RP can still improve, ABP needs to run to his previous lofty ratings and also be error free.

So in conclusion as an owner I would take the 'no regrets' route and would 100% go for the Gold Cup. The image of Gloria Victis may be in my mind, but I've been down this path before with Djakadam and hit the crossbar twice, and Djakadam was less experienced than Royale Pagaille. Also RP was chasing early so there's a good chance he will regress earlier than a typical store horse.

Is that what I want them to do for my bets? No. But I think he at least places in a Gold Cup and I'll be backing him no runner no bet accoringly.

Spot on agree 100%

[Quevega]

I've reflected on this overnight and fully considered what I'd do in their shoes.

First I'd want to know if I was going to the Gold Cup with a realistic chance of winning. I think this was what Venetia was eluding too when she wanted to see what mark the handicapper gives him. I think he'll get high 160's without touching 170, and I'm going to assume he needs to find 7-8lbs of improvement to beat Al Boum Photo based on how the handicapper assesses him. Then I'd look at the next best horses in the market and I'd realise I'm the third highest rated of those believed to have a chance. Al Boum Photo 175, Santini 170.

Second I'd want to see how other novices have fared that were thought to have a genuine chance. Coneygree won after three chase starts, and Gloria Victis fell and sadly lost his life. The contrast is stark, and there's no doubt Gloria Victis will be part of their thought process.

Third I'd consider how well he's equipped for the race, particualrly given his novice status like the two above. So I'd compare against last seasons novices, and then quickly realise that of those with a chance Royale Pagaille has had 11 chases so far, Minella Indo 6, and Champ 5. He's easily the most experienced. That's a double edged sword though because they potentially have more improvement in them too of course and they will be just behind him in the ratings. But Iin addition that Santini who was second last year has still only had 8 chase starts, and the dual winner Al Boum Photo has only had one more than Royale Pagaille with 12. In other words he's not out of place in the race at all based on experience. Gloria Victis for info had 6 chase starts before his ill fated run, and had also been tested outside of novice company earning a RPR rating when beating Marlborough 10 lenghts and giving him 15lbs, which at face value is more than Royale Pagaille has achieved so far in open company. That horse was going to be a monster, but don't start me on that road..............

Third is he's still young and he's only 7. How have other 7 year olds fared? Well that ones simple given two of the last horses to win the Gold Cup were aged 7, and you don't have to go too far back to find Long Run in 2011 as a 6 year old winner. And too top it off Rich Ricci owned Djakadam who finished second in the race as a 6 year old and 7 year old, so in fact age could easily be considered as a positive.

So what would I do if I were Rich Ricci and Venetia Williams? I'd consider whether I can genuinely win the race? Because if not I'd go for the easier alternative. With all the evidence though, I think I would easily convince myself that my horse has a genuine chance of winning, and there's only one Gold Cup. There's no reason why RP can't beat last years novices, and he looks a better horse than Santini anyway. So it's Al Boum Photo to consider, who's going for a hat trick in the race and a horse to be feared, given he's higher rated and also been there and done that. Twice! But he's one horse, and the gap in ratings is not insurmountable, and anything can happen in the race. RP can still improve, ABP needs to run to his previous lofty ratings and also be error free.

So in conclusion as an owner I would take the 'no regrets' route and would 100% go for the Gold Cup. The image of Gloria Victis may be in my mind, but I've been down this path before with Djakadam and hit the crossbar twice, and Djakadam was less experienced than Royale Pagaille. Also RP was chasing early so there's a good chance he will regress earlier than a typical store horse.

Is that what I want them to do for my bets? No. But I think he at least places in a Gold Cup and I'll be backing him no runner no bet accoringly.

Agreed.

I was surprised that you didn't think this before the race.
I think you believed he was still well in and would win the race yesterday, handily enough.

Myself and Lobos tried to convince you, but you were too stubborn.
Everything you've just said was valid prior to yesterday's race.

I had thought he may not be as good as that last race at Kempton made him look, and even though yesterdays race cut up, I was wrong, although I'm still inclined to not back him for the Gold cup, at this stage.