2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Faugheen_Machine]

At least we've finally found Mullins runner in the race !! 33/1 with B365 will surely collapse if he finishes too 4 to qualify. He'd go off single figures wouldn't he ?

His profile doesn't scream NH Chase winner. He's only won a maiden hurdle in 5 races, beaten as odds on fav in his two chase starts, including fall.

He'd be lacking experience so easily avoided for me.

[Muswell]

I was busy yesterday!

edit 1 - actually scratch that I was so busy I don’t remember discussing it yesterday apologies

[jack1092]

His profile doesn't scream NH Chase winner. He's only won a maiden hurdle in 5 races, beaten as odds on fav in his two chase starts, including fall.

He'd be lacking experience so easily avoided for me.

Agreed, it would be purely a trading bet for me.

I dont think he's actually looked good- and his hurdle form is not what it looked like with hindsight IMO.

[Madmoose]

Rubbish that Lord Royal, no one would care for him as any bet if Rowlands never flagged him up last season.

[Eggs]

....actually thought Lord Royal was running a decent race when falling on Chase debut. I recall Mullins talking about him as an RSA horse.

[Craigy14]

....actually thought Lord Royal was running a decent race when falling on Chase debut. I recall Mullins talking about him as an RSA horse.

I agree he was looking good on chase debut and would have won a fair distance imo.

The problem was his second start, tailed off finishing fifth. Now it could have been a trip too short and it was all happening too quick for him. But even then, beaten 55 lengths doesn’t look good.

I’ve backed him NRNB with PP, you never know and he’ll shorten if qualifying which I would expect.

[Run4Home]

....actually thought Lord Royal was running a decent race when falling on Chase debut. I recall Mullins talking about him as an RSA horse.

Agreed was running a huge race until he fell 1st day out.

The 2nd run obviously is the one hard to figure out.
Hopefully he puts a line through that tomorrow and we should know a lot more but the one thing in back of my mind is how much Willie talked him up at the start of the season so they must think a lot of him as a chaser.

Given he looks to be Willies only probable runner here agree think the 33's with 365 is a no brainer with the cash out option if all fails. If he wins tomorrow then his prices plunges

[Faugheen_Machine]

Agreed was running a huge race until he fell 1st day out.

The 2nd run obviously is the one hard to figure out.
Hopefully he puts a line through that tomorrow and we should know a lot more but the one thing in back of my mind is how much Willie talked him up at the start of the season so they must think a lot of him as a chaser.

Given he looks to be Willies only probable runner here agree think the 33's with 365 is a no brainer with the cash out option if all fails. If he wins tomorrow then his prices plunges

If he fails to qualify tomorrow then I'd worry that cash out would disappear. Not a whole load of options left to qualify, although it doesn't look the strongest race so he should do it comfortably enough.

[ComplyOrDie]

The rating I have for Royale Pagaille is off the charts for a novice Charlie. The last time I had a rating anywhere near his for a novice was Native River and Un Temps Pour Tout at Newbury in 2015. The rating I have for RP is 2lbs ahead of that race though. He's a monster. And for perspective one became a rare back to back winner of the Ultima and the other a Gold Cup winner.

The Gold Cup is too much too soon though I think, but if his jumping holds up (he can be a bit flat and guessy at times), I'd be confident that he beats Galvin. I reckon only the fences will beat him.

Galvin is still my best result though, but I've added to my original bet before the weekend so my return is now close to my Galvin returns. And by the day of the race he'll be my biggest winner.

For anyone that hasn't latched onto just how good he is yet, his price will have gone after this weekend, and I strongly advise getting him onside.

As the old saying goes, 'you can only beat what is in front of you', which does ring true, however I always have big doubts about horses that go up in the weights by as large amounts as he has (21lbs for two wins) in such a short space of time. IF he wins tomorrow it will be some performance, and he would probably have to go favourite for the NH Chase, but giving 9lbs to Sam Brown (including the jockeys claim) will be a seriously difficult thing to do.

I'm not brave enough to say yours or others ratings are going to be definitely wrong, but he's beat a 133 rated horse, LTO, back in 2nd and a now 11 year old in 3rd (also getting 2lbs from) whose been on the downgrade for the past 2 seasons (admittedly with the odd half hearted performance thrown in) and was coming off the back of a short break (something he's barely done well either). I do realise he then went and won after that defeat, but I'd be more of the opinion that the race against Royale Pagaille was more a pipe opener than him being there as a 'trier'.

I had already backed Royale Pagaille for the NH Chase, but it was more as cover for Galvin, than as strong opinion as yours is, though I wish you the best of luck with him, and if you are proved correct then I'd take my hat off to you, should I ever wear one

[jack1092]

If he fails to qualify tomorrow then I'd worry that cash out would disappear. Not a whole load of options left to qualify, although it doesn't look the strongest race so he should do it comfortably enough.

Obviously never ideal coming off the back of a fall but Defi Bleu is certainly no mug and has more thorough form than Lord Royal . Been running over what you'd expect to be an inadequate 2miles and wasn't looking to run a bad one last time either.

[Kevloaf]

Whilst all eyes are on Royal Pagielle today to win/run well and run here.....

I've decided today to add If The Cap Fits for the NH Chase at (12/1) NRNB with PP. 2.5 pts e/w

If he beats Yala Enki over 3m4f, he'll have proven two things...

1. He's well worth his rating of 152, (Yala Enki is 161)
2. The step up to 3m4f is no problem, and that coupled with his run in the Kauto Star, means 3m6f should suit too and he'll have proven more stamina than most.

The double green should be able to secure a good amatuer if needed, and if not that have either James Bowen or Daryl Jacob



Yala Enki really should be winning today, so I don't think the bookies would push out ITCF if beaten (although they might) ... if they do I'd perhaps chance him again depending on how he runs.

As the highest rated hurdler that went chasing, I'd want him onside no matter what in the NH Chase just on a class angle in what isn't usually a deep race.






Just to mention, already done the Royal Pagaille angle.
Not interested in If The Cap Fits to win today 'and' either as I think it's a really stiff task.... he could easily 'run well' though and be second and his credentials be enhanced.... if he's within 9L of Yala Enki it's a big run!

[FinalFurlong91]

I'm a little surprised they haven't gone back to hurdles with if the cap fits tbh as he's not looked close to a natural jumper of a fence

[Willdunn99]

I'm a little surprised they haven't gone back to hurdles with if the cap fits tbh as he's not looked close to a natural jumper of a fence

I also thought they would go back to hurdles, but I think it makes sense to persist over fences now as he won his first chase start and would lose his novice status. It would be there only chance to have a crack at a novice chase at the festival this year. His jumping is terrible, but at this distance everything might just happen slow enough for him. I actually give him a chance, don’t think the distance will be an issue, I’ve backed today and NRNB for the festival, so fingers crossed.

[Istabraq]

Kevloaf

I’ve backed ITCF for today but I’m not convinced Cheltenham is his track, to me it looks like his best form comes on galloping tracks.
It’s probably not lost on Harry Fry either, rarely do you get a horse of his ability getting well into 5th season and just the one trip to HQ...

[taylorch1990]

Not interested in If The Cap Fits to win today 'and' either as I think it's a really stiff task.... he could easily 'run well' though and be second and his credentials be enhanced.... if he's within 9L of Yala Enki it's a big run!

Were you not tempted to double ITCF WITH Yala Enki today if that's how you see the race going?

Edit. That's a poor suggestion from myself as its highly unlikely ITCF will shorten for getting beaten so please ignore.