2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Istabraq]

I doubt it. Why shoulder 11-12 against a better field when you can carry 11-6 in a worse field? In terms of the more winnable race I'd certainly have it down as this.

All fair points, I had stupidly thought the Ultima carried a bigger pot which of course isn’t the case.
Looks like I’ll have to cover...

[Lobos]

Spectre
Is the Ultima a possibility do you think ?

As per Q's previous post , if RP goes and wins the Peter Marsh well at the weekend then Handicaps will be out for him. Venetia was clearly very annoyed by the amount he was put up following his last win which prompted the GC entry. As Spectre says, the NHC would be an option (RSA out I suspect as Ricci has Monkfish in that). I personally think Ricci might let him run in the GC as he is a very experienced chaser with 10 runs, he's already rated on a par with Monkfish and Ricci's Djakadam had a very similar profile when coming 2nd as a 6yo in his first GC.

[Spectre]

I’m a fan of RP and will get him on side before the weekend. My only worry is that he’s not the most fluent jumper. To win this you have to jump and stay - he definitely stays but he can be a little low at his fences - anyone else worried about that?

Yes I am TOTG. But I believe if he jumps he wins.

[Spectre]

As per Q's previous post , if RP goes and wins the Peter Marsh well at the weekend then Handicaps will be out for him. Venetia was clearly very annoyed by the amount he was put up following his last win which prompted the GC entry. As Spectre says, the NHC would be an option (RSA out I suspect as Ricci has Monkfish in that). I personally think Ricci might let him run in the GC as he is a very experienced chaser with 10 runs, he's already rated on a par with Monkfish and Ricci's Djakadam had a very similar profile when coming 2nd as a 6yo in his first GC.

Rich Ricci has had horses with Willie for so long that it’ll be ingrained in him to go for the race he’s most likely to win. It certainly would be like Venetia to over face a horse either. Also as a 7 year old novice why do they need to go for the Gold Cup this season? He can run in the the next 3 or 4 that follow if he’s good enough. Going for any other race than the NH Chase makes no sense whatsoever.

[Lobos]

I've just looked up Djakadams prep race before he finished 2nd in his first GC and he won a Grade A Handicap over 3 miles on the 22nd January off an identical rating to Royal Pagaille. Spooky.

[Spectre]

I've just looked up Djakadams prep race before he finished 2nd in his first GC and he won a Grade A Handicap over 3 miles on the 22nd January off an identical rating to Royal Pagaille. Spooky.

He wasn’t a novice though Lobos, so hardly a comparison.

[Lobos]

Rich Ricci has had horses with Willie for so long that it’ll be ingrained in him to go for the race he’s most likely to win. It certainly would be like Venetia to over face a horse either. Also as a 7 year old novice why do they need to go for the Gold Cup this season? He can run in the the next 3 or 4 that follow if he’s good enough. Going for any other race than the NH Chase makes no sense whatsoever.

Maybe but they may also think they should strike while the iron is hot. He may not be in the same form next season and the GC will look stronger potentially with the likes of Envoi and more importantly his very own Monkfish. It all makes complete sense to me. He does have to go and win Saturday though.

[Lobos]

He wasn’t a novice though Lobos, so hardly a comparison.

A novice beat Djakadam in that GC. Coneygree. Djakadam only had 5 chase runs prior to the GC , RP has had 10 already . He's hardly your average Novice.

[Spectre]

That’s a big maybe. You could say that about any novice any season! I think your off on a track by yourself. It can pay off to do sometimes, but I really just don’t see this at all.

[Spectre]

A novice beat Djakadam in that GC. Coneygree.

And Coneygree was as fragile as they come. They went there because they didn’t know they’d have a horse afterwards. He was also tested in the Denman Chase first, which is one of the five recognised Gold Cup trials. You’re clutching at straws trying to make your theory fit. It doesn’t.

[Spectre]

I’m not knocking you for raising it by the way. It’s worth the debate. You’re still wrong though.

[Lobos]

And Coneygree was as fragile as they come. They went there because they didn’t know they’d have a horse afterwards. He was also tested in the Denman Chase first, which is one of the five recognised Gold Cup trials. You’re clutching at straws trying to make your theory fit. It doesn’t.

Why give him a GC entry then Spectre ? Are you saying Venetia and Ricci are clutching as well ?

[Spectre]

Dithering over Champ. Minella Indo fall. Possible future injuries. If it cuts up badly they have the option.

[Lobos]

And Coneygree was as fragile as they come. They went there because they didn’t know they’d have a horse afterwards. He was also tested in the Denman Chase first, which is one of the five recognised Gold Cup trials. You’re clutching at straws trying to make your theory fit. It doesn’t.

Jodami won the Peter Marsh on his 10th chase run and won the GC in the same year. Its a very good test and could be called a GC trial.

[Lobos]

I’m not knocking you for raising it by the way. It’s worth the debate. You’re still wrong though.

I love a debate and this one's got some milage in it !