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My inclination is to avoid him. I think there will be a lot more quality in this year's renewal than in previous years, and a decent jockey booking is essential (Codd on Le Breuil vs Barry O'Neill on Discorama being the perfect example IMO). Barry is a good jockey and he actually rode for Kim in this last year (Newtide), but he's not a Codd or O'Conner, who would presumably be booked by other trainers. Happygolucky is also ground dependent according to KB and I think there are better bets at 20/1+ than him. Dickie Diver and Longhouse Poet for example can both still be backed at 33/1. DD is entered this weekend so presumably came out his debut race well and he looks all over suited to the 4 miler. Longhouse Poet has already qualified for the race and looks the perfect type for a decent trainer.
Thanks Charlie, I have placed a small bet on him, nothing considerable.
Longhouse Poet is a shrewd pick, he has been crying out for more than 3 miles since Xmas last year in my opinion
Thanks Charlie, I have placed a small bet on him, nothing considerable.
Longhouse Poet is a shrewd pick, he has been crying out for more than 3 miles since Xmas last year in my opinion
He's been aching for it! And he loved the step up and will love even further. Jumps superbly too, fex experience, bred to go further etc etc. Ticks loads of boxes (there's a more detailed post re him around 10 pages back)
Only that Bailey said he's more likely to come here than anywhere else so at least you know the target. He'll have a decent chance so I'd imagine they'll have plenty of takers jockey wise.
Exactly this for me , Lobos . Already on board the Galvin Express , But i thought HappygoLucky was impressive when he won at Chelt's.
along with the trainer's quote , added him @ 25-1 /.
Exactly this for me , Lobos . Already on board the Galvin Express , But i thought HappygoLucky was impressive when he won at Chelt's.
along with the trainer's quote , added him @ 25-1 /.
Won't be backing him myself but good luck. Happy I'll have the winner from Galvin, Ontheropes and The Big Breakaway with potentially Locks Corner if he can put his last run behind him and qualify in time. Really looking forward to this race this year.
Has anyone had a look at Happygolucky for this, I'm torn whether to bet as I can't think of who they would jock up.....
Any input would be appreciated
I've actually got my eye on him for the Ultima, assuming he isn't good enough for this race. If he's well beaten on Saturday then I think it could be a possibility. But then I'm useless at handicaps, haha.
I've actually got my eye on him for the Ultima, assuming he isn't good enough for this race. If he's well beaten on Saturday then I think it could be a possibility. But then I'm useless at handicaps, haha.
I think the last two years I have managed to do Ok at best in handicaps, thanks to Gordon Elliott and his plot jobs.
Welsh national winner up to 144, wouldn’t fault him going for the Kim Muir having stayed under the 145 mark even thou he name checked this race.
I’ve been thinking about this race and am surprised that he’s still available at 16/1 for it, and having already backed him, would hope that the trainer sticks to his original assessment of where he might go (“He’s still a novice and the race that really comes to mind is the National Hunt Chase at the Festival”). I can see why Galvin would have plenty of support given the trainer and early identification of his target, but although his last couple of runs at Cheltenham have been impressive and connections seem convinced that he’ll be even better over further, given that he’s never raced over further than 3m this has to be taken on trust and hasn’t been proven.
This is also a race that hasn’t been great for the favourites in recent years – they obliged 3 years running from 2011-2013, but haven’t won a renewal since then, and 3 of the last 4 winners have been priced 12/1-16/1.
I thought that Secret Reprieve jumped very well at Chepstow and obviously sees out the extended trip well, and is now at the kind of rating (144) that should put him very much in contention, with 6 of the last 10 winners having been OR 146 or less. Given that his trainer has stated that this will be a likely destination for him (which certainly can’t be said for a fair few around him in the betting), if he does end up coming this way I could easily see him as something like a 5/1 second favourite, so he could also be a decent trade if people wanted to play it that way.
I sincerely hope that Galvin and all of the other Irish horses make it over for the Festival (not least because my antepost book would be decimated otherwise), but if the worst came to the worst and they weren’t allowed over, that would leave a massive hole at the top of this market. Either way, I suspect that the current 16/1 could potentially end up looking very generous indeed, and the potential ‘levelling up’ of the jockey situation if the amateurs can’t ride would only make this price look more attractive.
I’ve been thinking about this race and am surprised that he’s still available at 16/1 for it, and having already backed him, would hope that the trainer sticks to his original assessment of where he might go (“He’s still a novice and the race that really comes to mind is the National Hunt Chase at the Festival”). I can see why Galvin would have plenty of support given the trainer and early identification of his target, but although his last couple of runs at Cheltenham have been impressive and connections seem convinced that he’ll be even better over further, given that he’s never raced over further than 3m this has to be taken on trust and hasn’t been proven.
This is also a race that hasn’t been great for the favourites in recent years – they obliged 3 years running from 2011-2013, but haven’t won a renewal since then, and 3 of the last 4 winners have been priced 12/1-16/1.
I thought that Secret Reprieve jumped very well at Chepstow and obviously sees out the extended trip well, and is now at the kind of rating (144) that should put him very much in contention, with 6 of the last 10 winners having been OR 146 or less. Given that his trainer has stated that this will be a likely destination for him (which certainly can’t be said for a fair few around him in the betting), if he does end up coming this way I could easily see him as something like a 5/1 second favourite, so he could also be a decent trade if people wanted to play it that way.
I sincerely hope that Galvin and all of the other Irish horses make it over for the Festival (not least because my antepost book would be decimated otherwise), but if the worst came to the worst and they weren’t allowed over, that would leave a massive hole at the top of this market. Either way, I suspect that the current 16/1 could potentially end up looking very generous indeed, and the potential ‘levelling up’ of the jockey situation if the amateurs can’t ride would only make this price look more attractive.
That's just an excellent post.
I'm going to take the 14/1 myself, with cashout options.... rather than 16s without or 7/1 NRNB
The jockey situation has me scared as my advantage would be diminished. What a ridiculous situation to affect an ante post bet
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