2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

[charlie]

My poor attempts at humour aside, I've never been so sure as to why people were so keen for LE to go up in trip. He has never shaped to me like a proper dour stayer aching for extra, and actually has some OK form down in trip (though swapping Monkfish for Envoi Allen is a Ghostbusters esque "choose the form of your destroyer").

Monkfish looks to have him pretty well held - on form you'd need a Monkfish mistake and he's looked a wonder over fences, but it's also not outside the realms of possibility? To not take that chance to throw him into a race where pretty much the most important factor is the jockey without one of those aforementioned jockeys just seems, IDK. foolhardy to me?

For me it's not a case of being keen to see LE go up in trip, its a case of wanting to see the Nolans do well at Cheltenham and LE winning a race. I think he'd have a better chance in the 4 miler than vs a horse that seems to have him well held. On paper, there's no reason to oppose LE trying 3m6f given he's by Oscar.

I think it's difficult to take Grade 1 races over 2m5f/3m and draw conclusions re 4-miler suitability because its a very different type of race, so its hard to know if it would suit or not. The tempo is more sedate which lends itself to conserving energy late, there's less pressure on jumping and it's more a case of just going about your business slowly and hoping that class prevails come the business end of the race.

Countering my own point, LE can race quite keenly which is the polar opposite of what you want in a 4 miler, so now I am just thoroughly confused!

[Lobos]

Just take the easy option like me Charlie and not back him for any race !

[robith]

For me it's not a case of being keen to see LE go up in trip, its a case of wanting to see the Nolans do well at Cheltenham and LE winning a race. I think he'd have a better chance in the 4 miler than vs a horse that seems to have him well held. On paper, there's no reason to oppose LE trying 3m6f given he's by Oscar.

I think it's difficult to take Grade 1 races over 2m5f/3m and draw conclusions re 4-miler suitability because its a very different type of race, so its hard to know if it would suit or not. The tempo is more sedate which lends itself to conserving energy late, there's less pressure on jumping and it's more a case of just going about your business slowly and hoping that class prevails come the business end of the race.

Countering my own point, LE can race quite keenly which is the polar opposite of what you want in a 4 miler, so now I am just thoroughly confused!

this is all totally fair - and indeed I love the horse too! IMO it just don't think this quite fits

[Pendil]

If the Nolans dont like their chance with LE in the RSA and feel the NHC is too far at 3ml 6f they could always try the interim trip and go for Gold with an 8yo novice

Personally felt that, considering the stable form, he ran an excellent trial.

Nolan form
Last 14 days 1 win from 15 runs
Since May 6 wins from 163 runs of which 1 win from 35 runs (LE)

[charlie]

this is all totally fair - and indeed I love the horse too! IMO it just don't think this quite fits

I am sure the Nolans will make the right decision by the horse! I'm still bitter about Monkfish doing him @ 66/1

[robith]

I am sure the Nolans will make the right decision by the horse! I'm still bitter about Monkfish doing him @ 66/1

I know mate, I'd followed you in on that. Had all the slips ready to go to aftertime the fuck into my pals.

Was also slightly surreal as I watched the Triumph, the County and the AB in the Louvre

[jonthehammer]

Nolan is probably thinking 'what if LE doesnt stay 4 miles and then Monkfish is brought down in the RSA' we could have won that. Its a very tricky decision to make and I guess he will have to go with gut feeling at the end of the day. As they say, you cant worry about one horse.

[Madmoose]

Any news about Ontheropes as i have him in mind for this but not heard anything since he was scratched from the Paddy Power decs over Xmas? His second to Monkfish could make him a nice bet here especially being one that has had plenty of chasing experience which bodes well for this race.

[charlie]

Nolan is probably thinking 'what if LE doesnt stay 4 miles and then Monkfish is brought down in the RSA' we could have won that. Its a very tricky decision to make and I guess he will have to go with gut feeling at the end of the day. As they say, you cant worry about one horse.

It's a very good point! Monkfish doesn't even have to make a mistake himself to have his race ended, and that would be a sickener for them in hindsight.

[Can't Catch Me]

What do people think about Royal Pagaille being likely to go for this. Bit worried by Betfair's standout 14/1 but otherwise tempted to add him!

[Quevega]

What do people think about Royal Pagaille being likely to go for this. Bit worried by Betfair's standout 14/1 but otherwise tempted to add him!

They've entered in the Gold Cup.
Not sure why they'd do that if they thought this was realistic.
But I suppose if they could get a good jockey.
On ratings he's got s great chance in this.

[Liammet]

What do people think about Royal Pagaille being likely to go for this. Bit worried by Betfair's standout 14/1 but otherwise tempted to add him!

I put him up for the Ultima a while ago

could still come here or RSA aswell

can’t see him been good enough for RSA ,also in same ownership as Monkfish

qualified for National Hunt Chase

However,Venetia likes to go handicap route and Charlie Deutsch could keep the ride

[Faugheen_Machine]

They've entered in the Gold Cup.
Not sure why they'd do that if they thought this was realistic.
But I suppose if they could get a good jockey.
On ratings he's got s great chance in this.

The Gold Cup is a strange entry isn't it, and kind of puts me off him for this race.

[Outlaw]

What do people think about Royal Pagaille being likely to go for this. Bit worried by Betfair's standout 14/1 but otherwise tempted to add him!

Mentioned this the other day if Mullins doesn't send an obvious candidate could Patrick get the leg up given the owners and they have the strong fav in the Rsa? Trainer mentioned going to a hcap despite the lofty rating before Chelt too nto(can't recall which one off top of my head).

[Spectre]

Whether Venetia has history in the race or not, it would seem like the obvious target.

The Gold Cup is definitely pie in the sky, Ricci wouldn't be keen to take on Monkfish in the RSA, and a mark of 154 wouldn't look particularly appetising for a novice in a handicap.

This race is a no-brainer I'd say.