2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Lobos]

A level weights plot ?

Yep. Many a non handicap plot has taken place over the years. The Galvin plot was begun a long time ago . Following the exact same route of other 4 mile winners with a summer campaign to gain valuable experience , being aimed at a small field over 3 miles to gain comfortable qualification and then rested up missing energy sapping winter ground before bringing home the bacon at the festival. Don't underestimate how much thought has gone into this. Luckily we as a group recognised the plot early enough to get on at reasonable prices and be able to sit back and watch the other protagonists suffer throughout the winter months trying to qualify. It's a plot of all plots.

[Kevloaf]

It comes down to price I guess

I'm assuming you're probably on galvin at 14s or higher so will be highlighting his positives

Whereas I'm not in that position so am looking for his weaknesses as a fairly short priced priced fav

I just cant get the way he travelled through that 2m4f race last year out of my head

Didnt scream dour stayer to me, not surprised he got 3 miles but 3 miles 6 is a lot further and I have enough doubts to be taking him on at the prices

Iv only had 2 very small bets so far on latest exhibition and Pencilfulloflead on the exchange at nice prices but cant be sure either will actually run.

So this race is a case of wait and see for me at this stage.

Oh yeah, completely see that side of it. My bets are in my diary if you want to check.

If I was starting now though, I would back LE 6/1 NRNB before Galvin at 4/1 NRNB however, I'd be worrying about not having a runner in the race with just him.

I did say for a while though at 6/1 I still think is fair for Galvin, I think he was a shoe-in to go off shorter.

The Jamie Codd being booked angle, that is in the public domain, will get mentioned again as if it's news and he'll shorten again.

There's a trading angle for him at 4/1 NRNB IMO. You could back 4/1 now and lay off on the exchange for shorter. Definitely could have at 6/1.

[jack1092]

Oh yeah, completely see that side of it. My bets are in my diary if you want to check.

If I was starting now though, I would back LE 6/1 NRNB before Galvin at 4/1 NRNB however, I'd be worrying about not having a runner in the race with just him.

I did say for a while though at 6/1 I still think is fair for Galvin, I think he was a shoe-in to go off shorter.

The Jamie Codd being booked angle, that is in the public domain, will get mentioned again as if it's news and he'll shorten again.

There's a trading angle for him at 4/1 NRNB IMO. You could back 4/1 now and lay off on the exchange for shorter. Definitely could have at 6/1.

What price you think he will go off roughly?

Without and without LE?

Barry O'Neill is probably his likeliest rider i'd say.

[Ray]

Im going to stick with lair duvent hell have to improve a hell of a lot to win! i have galvin in a
nice looking yankee, other then that ive missed the price..lair duvent strikes me as a real stayer though and he done well in his run at exeter on heavy ground and looked like he couldve gone around again although pulled up at cheltenham in december..so hes a bit hit and miss, i remember a long time ago the tizzards saying they thought highly of him aswell so i hope he goes here

[Kevloaf]

What price you think he will go off roughly?

Without and without LE?

Barry O'Neill is probably his likeliest rider i'd say.

Roughly, 3/1.

Obviously a lot can change, the way I'm seeing it at the moment we don't have any obvious Mullins candidate that's going to usurp Galvin. If The Big Getaway rocked up, he would, behind him though (and ignoring Monkfish who would be odds on) I'm not sure Willie has a 'fav' in his armoury.

That leaves a potential JP runner and/or Derek O'Connor ride but again, seeing something usurp Codd/Elliott/Festival 2nd Galvin is a stretch?

Latest Exhibition could be fav, I'm not sure if it's Barry O'Neill, by the time the preview circuit is done that he'd affect Galvin's price though, I don't think he'll be any bigger than 4/1 now (although you could take bigger without NRNB as the target's confirmed)...


I'd be worried about Apencilfulloflead as someone pointed out Gordon doesn't usually have multiple runners so that would be an anomoly and one I'll have to risk.



I don't by any stretch consider Galvin a good-thing, I just have the fancy prices and took a proper swing so hope to get to the day, with him fav.... can't ask for more than that.... if I could guarentee that every race I'd snap anyones hand off, obviously.

[Hurdles or chasing]

Paul Nolan talking after the Monkfish race if anybody hasn't seen it.

https://twitter.com/LeopardstownRC/status/1343963672553672704?s=19

[charlie]

Paul Nolan talking after the Monkfish race if anybody hasn't seen it.

https://twitter.com/LeopardstownRC/status/1343963672553672704?s=19

So hard to draw anything from that. He says one sentence and I think 'its the 4-miler' then in the next I'm thinking 'he'll go RSA' - and that happened 3-4 times!!

[Hurdles or chasing]

Ye not easy at all but it sounds like he thinks there is just a bad jump between them. Would be fairly harsh on Cooper if they went 4 miler. Think he is a big part of the yard.

[Lobos]

So hard to draw anything from that. He says one sentence and I think 'its the 4-miler' then in the next I'm thinking 'he'll go RSA' - and that happened 3-4 times!!

Looking at the huge total prize money difference between the 4 miler and RSA and taking into account how light the RSA opposition to Monkfish is looking , I'm now of the opinion that LA will take Monkfish on again.

[charlie]

Looking at the huge total prize money difference between the 4 miler and RSA and taking into account how light the RSA opposition to Monkfish is looking , I'm now of the opinion that LA will take Monkfish on again.

If I was forced to land on one side or the other post that interview, I'd marginally favour the 4 miler because of the sentence 'we'd love to win something'.

What PN is saying there is LE got the dream ride in the AB when Monkfish was keen, and didn't beat him. LE then ran a blinder the other day, and still didn't beat him.

If they want a winner and hopefully one day, a Gold Cup horse, there's nothing wrong with taking on the 4 miler if they want to win something.

If I trained LE and had as many horses as Paul Nolan (which isn't many), the question I'd be asking myself is 'would I rather take on Galvin or Monkfish at Cheltenham'?

In light of recent events and clearly wanting a Cheltenham winner, at what point does Paul see the former as more difficult than the latter?

[robith]

Paul Nolan talking after the Monkfish race if anybody hasn't seen it.

https://twitter.com/LeopardstownRC/status/1343963672553672704?s=19

Has he been kidnapped? He looks like he's about to be offed and dropped in some concrete

[Lobos]

If I was forced to land on one side or the other post that interview, I'd marginally favour the 4 miler because of the sentence 'we'd love to win something'.

What PN is saying there is LE got the dream ride in the AB when Monkfish was keen, and didn't beat him. LE then ran a blinder the other day, and still didn't beat him.

If they want a winner and hopefully one day, a Gold Cup horse, there's nothing wrong with taking on the 4 miler if they want to win something.

If I trained LE and had as many horses as Paul Nolan (which isn't many), the question I'd be asking myself is 'would I rather take on Galvin or Monkfish at Cheltenham'?

In light of recent events and clearly wanting a Cheltenham winner, at what point does Paul see the former as more difficult than the latter?

Monkfish would beat Galvin so no contest there. I've just looked up prize money and last year there was a ?14k difference bin prize money finishing 2nd so not as big a gap as I thought there would be. On that basis, i can fully understand them looking at the 4 miler as a very good alternative.

[Quevega]

Has he been kidnapped? He looks like he's about to be offed and dropped in some concrete

I'm sure he was trying to send a message with his blinking.

[robith]

My poor attempts at humour aside, I've never been so sure as to why people were so keen for LE to go up in trip. He has never shaped to me like a proper dour stayer aching for extra, and actually has some OK form down in trip (though swapping Monkfish for Envoi Allen is a Ghostbusters esque "choose the form of your destroyer").

Monkfish looks to have him pretty well held - on form you'd need a Monkfish mistake and he's looked a wonder over fences, but it's also not outside the realms of possibility? To not take that chance to throw him into a race where pretty much the most important factor is the jockey without one of those aforementioned jockeys just seems, IDK. foolhardy to me?

[Quevega]

My poor attempts at humour aside, I've never been so sure as to why people were so keen for LE to go up in trip. He has never shaped to me like a proper dour stayer aching for extra, and actually has some OK form down in trip (though swapping Monkfish for Envoi Allen is a Ghostbusters esque "choose the form of your destroyer").

Monkfish looks to have him pretty well held - on form you'd need a Monkfish mistake and he's looked a wonder over fences, but it's also not outside the realms of possibility? To not take that chance to throw him into a race where pretty much the most important factor is the jockey without one of those aforementioned jockeys just seems, IDK. foolhardy to me?

I'm on board with this.
He travelled like the horse with most speed (class) in the bartlett as well.
He did look a little slow on his second chase start, but on better ground the last day he looked like he had a gear or two.
Just probably not as many as Monkfish though.
So I can see why they may go for another race.
Just don't think they will for same reasons as you.