2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Kevloaf]

I can see Next Destination and Galvin being very similar prices at the off

5/2 the pair maybe

365 have priced them coupled at 10/11 versus the field

[jack1092]

I can see Next Destination and Galvin being very similar prices at the off

5/2 the pair maybe

I tend to agree with this, i've long thought Galvin would be vulnerable to a good rival + especially pricewise, shouldn't be a proper short favourite for this. I've him backed along with many, but i'd have ND favourite now for this.
I wasn't quick off the mark with the prospect of ND coming here, but i've used a horse tomorrow to try and roll on to him to get him covered.

Fingers crossed that would leave me with Galvin, Escaria + ND.

[The King Pimm]

It’s all water under the bridge now but it really irritated me this morning that Next Destination was redirected to this race after Royal Paguille was confirmed to be having a crack at the Gold Cup. Paul Nicholls have emphasised and reiterated over the past few weeks that ND he was going for the Brown Advisory Novice and no other race and ruled out running in this race on a number of occasions. This decision is completely disrespectful to punters to openly confirm targets and then change his mind and announce via Twitter last minute he was being redirected here. The man is an arse. A very successful and talented man but a complete knob head all the same

[The King Pimm]

I hope Next Destination comes last in this race and Paul Nicholls drops and breaks his binoculars whilst trying to work out where he is when the rest of the field have finished.

[The King Pimm]

My best results are a Galvin or Escaria Ten win, I’ve got both of these horses only to win so a place is no good. I’m hoping for a big run from Snow Leopardess too

[Kevloaf]

I tend to agree with this, i've long thought Galvin would be vulnerable to a good rival + especially pricewise, shouldn't be a proper short favourite for this. I've him backed along with many, but i'd have ND favourite now for this.
I wasn't quick off the mark with the prospect of ND coming here, but i've used a horse tomorrow to try and roll on to him to get him covered.

Fingers crossed that would leave me with Galvin, Escaria + ND.

If One For The Team runs well in the Ultima, Next Destination might get a bit of momentum.

I'd have Galvin beating If The Cap Fits now the hand brake is off though, so I'm not wanting to get too carried away.



If they were the same price, I'd back Galvin over Next Destination every time.

[Istabraq]

There’s so much more to come from Galvin that we haven’t seen yet, it’s possible there’s a recency issue in opinions being shared.
Whatever views are of Gordon Elliot he is a hell of a trainer if race horses and if he thinks 3 tin pot Summer hacks and an October Cheltenham appearance is the right prep then who are we to doubt him...,

[Istabraq]

. This decision is completely disrespectful to punters to openly confirm targets and then change his mind and announce via Twitter last minute he was being redirected here. The man is an arse. A very successful and talented man but a complete knob head all the same

I feel for you TKP but he’s not the first and won’t be the last, Nicholls is actually one of the more open trainers who informs press/media of his views, there’s a danger when criticising trainers they simply stop talking and we’re back to the 80’s where no-one outside an elite few know anything...

[Hurricane fly]

I know this has been the plan all year but outside of his 2nd last year does Galvin have a single piece of form since his Ballymore run that is worth even typing out?

[FinalFurlong91]

"He is in the Brown Advisory Novice Chase and the National Hunt Chase and if it soft he will run in the Brown Advisory. We put him in the NH as he stays very strongly, and Harry (Cobden) can ride him now. "

Thats what Nicholls said

[Kevloaf]

I know this has been the plan all year but outside of his 2nd last year does Galvin have a single piece of form since his Ballymore run that is worth even typing out?

Well given he was campaigned as a handicapper for Gordon Elliott and was fav for a Galway Plate, I'd say it's pretty clear he's not been running on merit his entire career?

It must give his form some context.... so technically you're right, there isn't anything (apart from FESTIVAL FORM) but even then, there are very, very genuine excuses.


I personally feel that's a stone that's easy to bat away.

[Istabraq]

Well given he was campaigned as a handicapper for Gordon Elliott and was fav for a Galway Plate, I'd say it's pretty clear he's not been running on merit his entire career?

It must give his form some context.... so technically you're right, there isn't anything (apart from FESTIVAL FORM) but even then, there are very, very genuine excuses.

Was just about to write something very similar, he literally had the handbrake on all last season and then bumped into a proper horse in the race they binned who won the race off 143 and 2 runs later was 163, I feel that’s exactly what Galvin could do...

[The King Pimm]

I feel for you TKP but he’s not the first and won’t be the last, Nicholls is actually one of the more open trainers who informs press/media of his views, there’s a danger when criticising trainers they simply stop talking and we’re back to the 80’s where no-one outside an elite few know anything...

I agree Nicholls is one of the more straight talking trainers and doesn’t mix his words normally but he was bang out of order with Next Destination. I don’t think it was his decision ultimately but the owners but only last week he stated there was no way ND was coming here and dismissed when questioned whether the NHC may be an option. By still having an entry there was still a chance, he could have just said it was a possibility and most of us would have had a chance to get a better price than currently available.

[Hurricane fly]

Even his races this year though, everybody he has beat has either not run since, or those that have none have been within 15 lengths of a win over fences.

Being favourite for the plate would suggest they he had something in hand rated 148, but he didn’t run so it’s not form just a gamble.

Would you not want a bit of form? even a close up second? It’s not like these horses are being spanked in the same manner by other Spring horses, they are being spanked by other summer racing level horses.

[Kevloaf]

Even his races this year though, everybody he has beat has either not run since, or those that have none have been within 15 lengths of a win over fences.

Being favourite for the plate would suggest they he had something in hand rated 148, but he didn’t run so it’s not form just a gamble.

Would you not want a bit of form? even a close up second? It’s not like these horses are being spanked in the same manner by other Spring horses, they are being spanked by other summer racing level horses.

Well I think his festival form counts as form?
I'm not sure why you're dismissing that as "a bit of form" - why doesn't that count?

I don't think Next Destination beating If The Cap Fits is miles better than beaten 3L behind Imperial Aura at Cheltenham.



This year, he's run in 4 races, won 4 races.... I'm not really sure what else he can do? The form not being "franked" is negated a bit by the actual festival form he has and the campaigning before that meaning he'd never have shown his true ability.



I personally, think he's better than a 142 horse.

He's now 152.




Next Destination with his form, is 153....


So even if you're spot on, I'm only hoping Galvin needs to find 1 lb, over 3m6f..... which I'mpretty content with.





At the current prices I can see why people will like Next Destination, as I've said earlier, really, really solid Grade 2 horse IMO and clearly of interest here...


I just think the crabbing of Galvin's form is without context.