2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Istabraq]

It’s not just that. He ticks about every trend going for the race too. Plus the similarities with past winners of this race for Gordon in terms of his campaign. A lot of the others will be lining up here either because they’re not good enough for the RSA or because that’s just how their season has turned out. I’ve no doubt Gordon had this race in mind for Galvin from the moment he realised he wasn’t catching imperial aura up the hill in the close brothers last year (I just didn’t twig on at the time & missed some of the bigger prices a lot on here did )

I haven’t checked but I’m not sure coming into the race having been off for so long is a positive trend.
Also worth remembering many in here will be running scared of Monkfish and probably stop halfway down the back straight...

[ToniC]

I haven’t checked but I’m not sure coming into the race having been off for so long is a positive trend.
Also worth remembering many in here will be running scared of Monkfish and probably stop halfway down the back straight...

Ravenhill, Tiger Roll & Chicago Grey all had similar lengths of time off when they won it for Gordon, that’s one of the most appealing elements of his profile for me the fact that his campaign is somewhat a proven method for the trainer. Cause of causes had a prep in the galmoy hurdle but for him as well it had been a similar length of time since he’d last jumped a fence.

[Istabraq]

Ravenhill, Tiger Roll & Chicago Grey all had similar lengths of time off when they won it for Gordon

Hadn't realised that, good knowledge...

[ToniC]

Hadn't realised that, good knowledge...

Just a sad bastard with too much time on my hands mate

[Istabraq]

Just a sad bastard with too much time on my hands mate

Clearly putting it to good use though...

[The King Pimm]

If you don’t like Galvin for this race (I do BTW) then Lord Royal is still 20/1 last time I checked. Trained by the best trainer in the world with the 2nd best jumps jockey in the world on board....that’s a massive price and will definitely be half that on the day if not shorter if he’s turns up. Mullins/Townend on board a very popular potential novice chaser at the start of the season.

[charlie]

If you don’t like Galvin for this race (I do BTW) then Lord Royal is still 20/1 last time I checked. Trained by the best trainer in the world with the 2nd best jumps jockey in the world on board....that’s a massive price and will definitely be half that on the day if not shorter if he’s turns up. Mullins/Townend on board a very popular potential novice chaser at the start of the season.

Lord Royal will only be backed because of the WPM factor though wont he? There are definitely much better bets at similar prices. He fell on debut, was beaten 57L next time up and then lost to Mr Hendricks who had pulled up prior to, and after that win. I'm virtually certain that Longhouse Poet is a much much better bet at 16/1 than Lord Royal is at 18/1. Aside from having better form, Cheltenham experience and being a more consistent jumper, he's got tons of stamina in his pedigree which would give you confidence re trip. He's just a much better bet at near enough the same price, for those that want to take on the fav

[Spectre]

Yes I agree wih that Charlie. I've backed Lord Royal as a back to lay. Unless there were mass defections I can't imagine I'll still have the bet by the time the race is run.

Lord Royal lacks any gears and is very one paced. There are some classy types entered this season and he won't be good enough. He will be backed though and he'll be half the price he is now.

[The King Pimm]

Lord Royal will only be backed because of the WPM factor though wont he? There are definitely much better bets at similar prices. He fell on debut, was beaten 57L next time up and then lost to Mr Hendricks who had pulled up prior to, and after that win. I'm virtually certain that Longhouse Poet is a much much better bet at 16/1 than Lord Royal is at 18/1. Aside from having better form, Cheltenham experience and being a more consistent jumper, he's got tons of stamina in his pedigree which would give you confidence re trip. He's just a much better bet at near enough the same price, for those that want to take on the fav

Lord Royals debut was very good until his fall and I think he was rushed out too quickly after that to race again with a lacklustre display behind hopefully his opponent at the Festival, Longhouse Poet (2nd). I thought he was much improved in his last race though behind Mr Hendricks. His jumping was better and he travelled well but not given a hard race, it looked like they just wanted to qualify him for this race. He was in front of The Big Dog LTO who has since won a good handicap. If his confidence beaming I think he is a powerful chaser who may well outrun his odds and place.

With this race likely to cut up it doesn’t look like being a big field so 18/1 for Willie Mullins main horse and his best jockey onboard is good value. He’s bound to be shorter on the day. I don’t think he will win though, I’ve bet him e/w as he’s a currently a good bet to place. I think Galvin will win. I’m also on Longhouse Poet at 33/1, I have to admit I followed your guidance on that bet Charlie as I had bet him originally for the RSA and Marsh. I didn’t think he would have the stamina for the NHC until I read your post so a big thank you.

[charlie]

Lord Royals debut was very good until his fall and I think he was rushed out too quickly after that to race again with a lacklustre display behind hopefully his opponent at the Festival, Longhouse Poet (2nd). I thought he was much improved in his last race though behind Mr Hendricks. His jumping was better and he travelled well but not given a hard race, it looked like they just wanted to qualify him for this race. He was in front of The Big Dog LTO who has since won a good handicap. If his confidence beaming I think he is a powerful chaser who may well outrun his odds and place.

With this race likely to cut up it doesn’t look like being a big field so 18/1 for Willie Mullins main horse and his best jockey onboard is good value. He’s bound to be shorter on the day. I don’t think he will win though, I’ve bet him e/w as he’s a currently a good bet to place. I think Galvin will win. I’m also on Longhouse Poet at 33/1, I have to admit I followed your guidance on that bet Charlie as I had bet him originally for the RSA and Marsh. I didn’t think he would have the stamina for the NHC until I read your post so a big thank you.

I might be doing him a disservice, I just don't see him being good enough.

Glad you are on TKP. He wont go off anywhere near 33/1. Sub 10/1 my guess.

[Lobos]

All 33/1 disappeared for Lord Royal. 16's best which will be a lot shorter on day. 7's I'd guess ?? Being Mullins/Patrick he's likely to go of 2nd fav now. Great cover for Galvin in my book.

[Outlaw]

All 33/1 disappeared for Lord Royal. 16's best which will be a lot shorter on day. 7's I'd guess ?? Being Mullins/Patrick he's likely to go of 2nd fav now. Great cover for Galvin in my book.

Patrick taking up that pro licence then?

[Lobos]

Patrick taking up that pro licence then?

Odds on I'd say

[Big Bucks]

Odds on I'd say

Opinion or has something been said?

[Lobos]

Opinion or has something been said?

Yeah, Patrick very keen