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I don’t really get the campaign for pencilfulloflead, I’m sure I read on here somewhere the owners preference was the old 4miler, he won his maiden over 2m6f then wins a grade two over 2m6 but then they drop him to 2m3 for a grade 1 because he needs soft ground but at the minute it’s soft everywhere, next he pitches up for a grade 3 but this time it’s over 3miles and he has to give everything 8lb. I,m not sure but is this one off the few races left that he could qualify for the old 4miler as he hadn’t before this race. Is there a discussion between Elliott and the owners were if he is good enough to win giving 8lbs he’ll go rsa but if not he’ll go the 4 miler or neither and he stays at home.
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Perhaps Gordon knows he’s not as good as Escaria Ten & Galvin, but the owners want him on the boat?
he was only 8 lengths behind the winner, on bottomless ground giving away 8lbs. I still think he’ll go to the RSA personally as Gordon has other options for this raceComment
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Sorry again I’m quoting what I’ve read on here but are the owners really focused on Cheltenham as being everything do they not like to win at the festivals in Ireland afterwards. if Elliott doesn’t think he is better than escaria ten why does he run in this race when giving 8lb, is he trying to get an rsa horse as he has a few for the national hunt chase and at the start of the season he has laid out galvin for it. I only watched the race once and from the last he was only ridden hands and heels and didn’t seem to lose anymore ground but I could be wrong as it can be hard to watch racing with a young family. I have backed him for the Rsa a while back but my confidence has taken a big hitComment
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Still place money to be had running behind monkfish. I just don’t see the point of sending him to the 4 miler when you’ve already got the fav, and a handful of other decent optionsComment
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If Latest Exhibition is beaten by Monkfish again for a 3rd they will have to strongly consider the NHC. Winner at Cheltenham for Nolan would do a lot for him as he has had a tough time of it the last few years regardless of what race it is.
As things stand Cooper would be able to keep the ride and the horse would be fav and probably the only real Grade 1 horse running in the race. A lot of water to go under the bridge and obviously RP could turn up which would change things but id be running him in the easiest race especially if beaten again by Monkfish. IMO listening to Nolan he sounds a bit more under pressure for winners than most trainers that have a Grade 1 horse so I can see him and think he should take the easier option of the NHC and roads lead to the Gold Cup next year.
Seen it mentioned a few times that Gordon usually only runs 1 in this race. Is that on purpose I wonder? Might just not have had horses suited to it or are they were much much better handicapped. Hes hardly against it especially this year as things stand professionals will be riding.
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Ground they said he wants so wouldn't be using that as an excuse.Originally posted by dannycraigpirates View PostComment
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The extra weight on that ground might have been an issue however?Comment
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You'd imagine Escaria Ten and Pencilfulloflead clashing yesterday was about figuring out the pecking order. Thje problem is both were beaten tidily by the very inexperienced Eklat de Rire. Perhaps one or the other will turn up in the Ultima? They're both due to get handicap marks this week, so decisions after that you'd imagine.Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.Comment
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A good point.Originally posted by Hurdles or chasing View Post
I think it's usually about having horses for handicaps?
He's had a very strong looking contender each year, even the years he's not done well, he's had the fav or a short priced horse that he must like.
He doesn't scatter gun graded races in general, compared to handicaps?
This year looks more likely than others that he has more than one, I can't deny that.Comment
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I have LE at 6/1 NRNB for this, but he's as high as 12/1 without. Seriously thinking of cashing out before the DRF, now would be the time to do it.Originally posted by Hurdles or chasing View Post
This is totally given the benefit of hindsight as I placed the bet a couple of weeks ago, but half the price is too much to concede given he's got 2 clear targets rather than 3 and I should've given that a bit more thought before placing the bet originally. You would probably say this is marginally the more likely target given your points, what the trainer has said, and the likelihood of him losing to Monkfish again at the DRF. If we were talking a point or 2 I wouldn't be considering it but the 6s to 12s is worth the switch I think, thoughts genuinely welcomed!Comment
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A potentially excellent related double.Originally posted by thorne365 View Post
Will be mulling that one tomorrow.
Done for the day today, been too intense
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Really liked the related bet being talked about above RE Monkfish & LE.
im a fan of LE as a horse but just think he will bump into one too good in the RSA in Monkfish.
I have added Heross Du Seuil @ 6/4 for the Scottish triumph and its now a roll up. Leaves LE @ around 59/1 for this j believe.
Heross Du Seuil should be a shoe-in.... surely?!
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21/1 for the related double mentioned above. Very very tempted to take that. If monkfish beats him, LE surely goes 4-miler if they want any chance of winning a race at the festival?
And if LE turned up, I’d want him covered for my Galvin and Dickie Diver bets. Think it has to be done doesn’t it?
Perhaps one for a free bet actually as it’s best priced 21/1 with Skybet.Comment
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