2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Can't Catch Me]

I’m hoping that Coko Beach goes for a handicap at the Fez, which means the Ultima or the Brown Plate.

I think the Irish Handicapper was wrong to put up Coko Beach 10lb higher than Run Wild Fred for a 6lb beating, so I’m hoping that the UK handicapper puts that right, and keeps Coko Beach on 150, and raises Run Wild Fred to 144 from 140.

Then Coko Beach has a decent pop at a handicap, and if they got a 150 rating confirmed, I reckon they could go the Brown Plate route - much more a Gordon Elliott race than the Ultima.

That does need a bit of imagination, but if you’ve got a vivid imagination, then I say use it.

Would seem odd to drop him back to 2 1/2m after winning the Thyestes though wouldnt it? I thought that was his trip before, but Ive definitely changed my mind now!

[Saxon Warrior]

Would seem odd to drop him back to 2 1/2m after winning the Thyestes though wouldnt it? I thought that was his trip before, but Ive definitely changed my mind now!

Yes, it would seem a less likely option, but like you, before this week I thought he was a mid-trip horse this season.

Handicapping really depends on the UK handicapper though, and almost no change from 150 does require a vivid imagination,

[Carnage at Taunton]

[QUOTE=Saxon Warrior;n280911]

I’m hoping that Coko Beach goes for a handicap at the Fez, which means the Ultima or the Brown Plate.

I think the Irish Handicapper was wrong to put up Coko Beach 10lb higher than Run Wild Fred for a 6lb beating, so I’m hoping that the UK handicapper puts that right, and keeps Coko Beach on 150, and raises Run Wild Fred to 144 from 140.

Then Coko Beach has a decent pop at a handicap, and if they got a 150 rating confirmed, I reckon they could go the Brown Plate route - much more a Gordon Elliott race than the Ultima.

That does need a bit of imagination, but if you’ve got a vivid imagination, then I say use it. [/QUOTE

As someone who has him for any race thanks to the first 6 bet, I really hope he goes for this as I think it’s the race that gives him the best chance of winning.

[Saxon Warrior]

[QUOTE=Carnage at Taunton;n280920]

I’m hoping that Coko Beach goes for a handicap at the Fez, which means the Ultima or the Brown Plate.

I think the Irish Handicapper was wrong to put up Coko Beach 10lb higher than Run Wild Fred for a 6lb beating, so I’m hoping that the UK handicapper puts that right, and keeps Coko Beach on 150, and raises Run Wild Fred to 144 from 140.

Then Coko Beach has a decent pop at a handicap, and if they got a 150 rating confirmed, I reckon they could go the Brown Plate route - much more a Gordon Elliott race than the Ultima.

That does need a bit of imagination, but if you’ve got a vivid imagination, then I say use it. [/QUOTE

As someone who has him for any race thanks to the first 6 bet, I really hope he goes for this as I think it’s the race that gives him the best chance of winning.

In reality he’s double figures for each race, and not a hardened short price for anything, so you’ve got a good spread of races for Gordon to choose from.

[Quevega]

Coko beach is 270-1 on betfair for the rsa
If monkfish is an absentee
surely he’d be thought about for that

[Exar Essay]

First post here so go gentle.

I must say, I rather fancy Pencilfulloflead for this after today’s run.

He was giving the front 2 8lbs today which will take its toll on heavy ground. Now I doubt he’d have won today even off level weights but he’d have been closer.

Added to that, his style just seems suited to the NHC. Slow as a boat but stays well. He did the same against Colreevy LTO. Was up aside her when she made a big
mistake at the last but found nothing when she corrected and kicked again.

I think he’s a decent ew punt and am happy to take my chances at 20/1 with 365.

I say this having had a bit on him for the RSA at 18s NRNB which I think I’m going to let run as, frankly, I prefer the chance of him nor running there than I do the 50% cash out available.

Would welcome any thoughts.

[Kevloaf]

First post here so go gentle.

I must say, I rather fancy Pencilfulloflead for this after today’s run.

He was giving the front 2 8lbs today which will take its toll on heavy ground. Now I doubt he’d have won today even off level weights but he’d have been closer.

Added to that, his style just seems suited to the NHC. Slow as a boat but stays well. He did the same against Colreevy LTO. Was up aside her when she made a big
mistake at the last but found nothing when she corrected and kicked again.

I think he’s a decent ew punt and am happy to take my chances at 20/1 with 365.

I say this having had a bit on him for the RSA at 18s NRNB which I think I’m going to let run as, frankly, I prefer the chance of him nor running there than I do the 50% cash out available.

Would welcome any thoughts.

Welcome Exar Essay.

I don't know

He ran close to Coko Beach first time out, he's probably not "RSA" class but it might come down to owner/jockey preference?

Gordon has only had more than 1 runner in this NH Chase once, so I'd be surprised if he decided this year he would start throwing loads of darts... and he's had one (in Galvin) lined up from a helluva long way out.


He probably should line up here... I just don't know.

Does Gordon Elliott have any Grade 1 staying chasers? He might just not.... I think Galvin is a Grade 2 horse.... you can argue on beating Coko Beach (now rated loads higher) and beating Latest Exhibition he deserves to go RSA - especially as today they can point to ground and giving away 8lbs..... feasible he'll be closer?




So, after lots of waffle, I think "RSA" is still most likely for him..... but I don't really fancy his chances in either anymore.

[skip]

At what point should I give up on Dickie Diver for this? Still to qualify and surely running out of time? If he does qualify for the race, I think lack of experience would be an issue anyway.

[Istabraq]

At what point should I give up on Dickie Diver for this? Still to qualify and surely running out of time? If he does qualify for the race, I think lack of experience would be an issue anyway.

Clearly had issues but then again he is trained by Hendo who seems to pull his is there’s a blade of grass out of place these days.
Keep an eye out for racecourse gallops, Newbury usually....

[Exar Essay]

Welcome Exar Essay.

I don't know

He ran close to Coko Beach first time out, he's probably not "RSA" class but it might come down to owner/jockey preference?

Gordon has only had more than 1 runner in this NH Chase once, so I'd be surprised if he decided this year he would start throwing loads of darts... and he's had one (in Galvin) lined up from a helluva long way out.


He probably should line up here... I just don't know.

Does Gordon Elliott have any Grade 1 staying chasers? He might just not.... I think Galvin is a Grade 2 horse.... you can argue on beating Coko Beach (now rated loads higher) and beating Latest Exhibition he deserves to go RSA - especially as today they can point to ground and giving away 8lbs..... feasible he'll be closer?




So, after lots of waffle, I think "RSA" is still most likely for him..... but I don't really fancy his chances in either anymore.

Thank you for the welcome and for your thoughts ... I enjoy waffle.

Yes, as a long time lurker here, I was aware of the GE single runner issue (despite him having maybe 5 suitors). But thanks for the reminder. That does put me off and 12/1 NRNB doesn’t do it for me so I may just leave it alone.

You make a good point re the other side of the equation too i.e. GE hasn’t got anything else for the RSA either.

If its the RSA, then after today, I just don’t think he has the cruising speed necessary to keep with Monkfish, LE etc. But still happy to let the bet run.

[Kevloaf]

Thank you for the welcome and for your thoughts ... I enjoy waffle.

Yes, as a long time lurker here, I was aware of the GE single runner issue (despite him having maybe 5 suitors). But thanks for the reminder. That does put me off and 12/1 NRNB doesn’t do it for me so I may just leave it alone.

You make a good point re the other side of the equation too i.e. GE hasn’t got anything else for the RSA either.

If its the RSA, then after today, I just don’t think he has the cruising speed necessary to keep with Monkfish, LE etc. But still happy to let the bet run.

Yeah I'm in a similar position to be fair. I have 2 pts e/w on him at 18/1 NRNB and he's now available at 20/1 NRNB - I won't cash it out either. I think on balance, I'd probably be able to make a solid enough case to back him for that race (or here) as a decent bet. He would not be my first choice in either race by a good few, but I like being mob-handed and try and get all the places and he'd be one that I don't think you can rule out for the reasons we've discussed.


I'm actually in a worse position as I have an 8/1 NRNB and a 10/1 bet on him for here.... which I played because I thought he'd only run if Galvin got injured.... (was planning to cash out the 10s but will hold on to it for now hoping 365 go NRNB so I get a proper amount of it back. I have a fairly good position on Galvin though so can afford to 'arse about' making sure I get compensated if my ante-post play goes west.



Whats "Exar Essay" anyway, I had a search and found it's either some sort of massive bull, or a computer micro chip

[Exar Essay]

Yeah I'm in a similar position to be fair. I have 2 pts e/w on him at 18/1 NRNB and he's now available at 20/1 NRNB - I won't cash it out either. I think on balance, I'd probably be able to make a solid enough case to back him for that race (or here) as a decent bet. He would not be my first choice in either race by a good few, but I like being mob-handed and try and get all the places and he'd be one that I don't think you can rule out for the reasons we've discussed.


I'm actually in a worse position as I have an 8/1 NRNB and a 10/1 bet on him for here.... which I played because I thought he'd only run if Galvin got injured.... (was planning to cash out the 10s but will hold on to it for now hoping 365 go NRNB so I get a proper amount of it back. I have a fairly good position on Galvin though so can afford to 'arse about' making sure I get compensated if my ante-post play goes west.



Whats "Exar Essay" anyway, I had a search and found it's either some sort of massive bull, or a computer micro chip

Yes hard to disagree with any of that. He does always seem to be at the pointy end and there’s the defeat of LE to cling to. So hardly time for chucking the slip in the bin.

I do wonder whether GE tools up with a few for this if Royal Pagaille goes here though?

Exar Essay is nothing but a bit of word play on the temporary name everyone seemed to give the Festival Novice Chase ... the ex-RSA. Sorry, no glamour or story to it. It was just in my head when I needed a user name.

[Kevloaf]

Yes hard to disagree with any of that. He does always seem to be at the pointy end and there’s the defeat of LE to cling to. So hardly time for chucking the slip in the bin.

I do wonder whether GE tools up with a few for this if Royal Pagaille goes here though?

Exar Essay is nothing but a bit of word play on the temporary name everyone seemed to give the Festival Novice Chase ... the ex-RSA. Sorry, no glamour or story to it. It was just in my head when I needed a user name.

You can have the RSA logo then

I'm not sure to be honest regarding Royal Pagaille... I suppose he could think if he can't beat it, send horses away from here. I can't see anything affecting Galvin but I see RP is 1/2 for the Gold Cup in that betting so hopefully we don't find out!

[TigerRolllllll]

Seem to be rumours that a latest Exhibition may go here....specially if Monkfish beats him again at DRF

One option to get him in book at decent price maybe a crafty double with Monkfish in Flogas and LE for NHC....currently about 20s, but maybe better on day

Hope he stays with RSA, but might be risk changes and def has good chance in this

[dannycraigpirates]

Seem to be rumours that a latest Exhibition may go here....specially if Monkfish beats him again at DRF

One option to get him in book at decent price maybe a crafty double with Monkfish in Flogas and LE for NHC....currently about 20s, but maybe better on day

Hope he stays with RSA, but might be risk changes and def has good chance in this

Not the worst result for me as I’ve backed him 1 point for each race and 1 point anyrace too.

Is there any point playing second fiddle repeatedly to monkfish? Even though it’s not as prestigious, a Cheltenham festival win is something not to take for granted and so may very easily come here. I think he’s perfectly suited to go off favourite if he did - seems to be a solid jumper, and you know he’ll stay