2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Priceiskey]

I think we could all be getting too bogged down in a Cheltenham plan for Coko Beach. The Thyestes is a very prestigious race in its own right, and Im sure it would have been one Gigg would have targeted at the start of the season (as they always do). He's probably been campaigned around today and its now job done.

Think we can all be a bit guilty of looking at everything through a Cheltenham shaped prism.

Coko Beach has had a great season now and anything else would be a bonus.

well said.

[Saxon Warrior]

It is baffling me that people would see Galvin moving to a tougher race?

On what planet is Gordon doing that?


The only example I can think of was when they have a crack at the Champion Hurdle with Annie Power, and that is miles off similar to this.



Nothing wrong with taking 14/1 NRNB for Coko Beach here..... but likely money back, you'd think Irish National so no need to arse about with his mark going up?

Galvin isn’t moving from this race.

Anyone who thinks he is, should take NRNB on it.

Coko Beach is an interesting one for the Festival now.
The Assistant Trainer said Irish National after Cheltenham, and maybe the NHC here. I am guessing that what they really want for the horse is an Irish mark of no more than 147 so they can enter him in the Ultima and Brown Plate and see what UK tax they get.

If it’s too much then they come to the NHC or the Festival/RSA, where they already have decent types for these races in Galvin and Pencilfulloflead.

[Hardy Eustace]

If Galvin runs anywhere other than here I’ll eat my own Faeces.

[Muswell]

Galvin isn’t moving from this race.

Anyone who thinks he is, should take NRNB on it.

Coko Beach is an interesting one for the Festival now.
The Assistant Trainer said Irish National after Cheltenham, and maybe the NHC here. I am guessing that what they really want for the horse is an Irish mark of no more than 147 so they can enter him in the Ultima and Brown Plate and see what UK tax they get.

If it’s too much then they come to the NHC or the Festival/RSA, where they already have decent types for these races in Galvin and Pencilfulloflead.

Not sure the trainer has the final say with the horses in maroon

[charlie]

Not sure the trainer has the final say with the horses in maroon

Thats definitely true of graded targets but I don't think the O'learys give a shit about handicappers / NHC.

[Rooster Booster]

Ok I am going to post this then retreat as far as I can (but don’t ban me as I love this place) I have just watched a novice chaser out jump out travel and outstay seasoned and senior handicappers on only his fifth chase start. For me an outstanding performance however reading many comments on various related threads it feels like some people would have been far happier if he had run at best averagely well and significantly below his capability in order to hide as much of his true ability away, presumably to protect their own investments.

While I totally understand this I cannot say it sits well with me when I think about how the entire outside world thinks of this amazing sport. If we believe this lack of transparency will continue to be tolerated when problem gambling is at the forefront of so many peoples minds we are deluded imo. If major and draconian changes are introduced that completely change the landscape of betting on horses for good then I cannot help thinking we as punters would have been somewhat complicit.

I have witnessed a performance that makes winning a handicap less likely than when I got up this morning but makes winning the NHC more likely. Hey that’s racing. Celebrate the fact that we have seen a horse try and win a race outside of the Cheltenham festival, you never know it might even catch on.

[fatherjohn]

Ok I am going to post this then retreat as far as I can (but don’t ban me as I love this place) I have just watched a novice chaser out jump out travel and outstay seasoned and senior handicappers on only his fifth chase start. For me an outstanding performance however reading many comments on various related threads it feels like some people would have been far happier if he had run at best averagely well and significantly below his capability in order to hide as much of his true ability away, presumably to protect their own investments.

While I totally understand this I cannot say it sits well with me when I think about how the entire outside world thinks of this amazing sport. If we believe this lack of transparency will continue to be tolerated when problem gambling is at the forefront of so many peoples minds we are deluded imo. If major and draconian changes are introduced that completely change the landscape of betting on horses for good then I cannot help thinking we as punters would have been somewhat complicit.

I have witnessed a performance that makes winning a handicap less likely than when I got up this morning but makes winning the NHC more likely. Hey that’s racing. Celebrate the fact that we have seen a horse try and win a race outside of the Cheltenham festival, you never know it might even catch on.

I agree about the horse trying aspect...if more races were truly run it would raise the sport up.

I think the frustrating thing is that when you spot a plot job but that plot was for a race you didn't necessary consider. as this is how most handicaps are won at the festival and the trainers are good at hiding them having one like coko beach show their true running before the festival is hard to take

[Quevega]

Thats definitely true of graded targets but I don't think the O'learys give a shit about handicappers / NHC.

I immediately thought RSA for Coko Beach , as Gigginstown have nothing for the RSA or Marsh, or Arkle for that matter cos Felix is shit as well.

And Gordon's not flush with runners in the RSA whatsoever, and Pencilfulloflead may run over 3m ( and also get qualified for the NH chase) on Sunday rather than Dublin (maybe not now).
Although should he run at Dublin in the Flogas and get put in his place then that would throw another spanner.

It may depend on his mark to a large extent like many have mentioned.

Gigginstown clearly though they were flush with staying chasers at the start of the season with horses like Diol Ker, Easywork, Commander of Fleet etc.
They even left Fury Road over hurdles (not normal for them).

But things have gone tits up and they've let the handbrake off the front 2 today, after probably lining them up for handicaps in the early part of the season.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

But things have gone tits up and they've let the handbrake off the front 2 today, after probably lining them up for handicaps in the early part of the season.

That’s a really good point I hadn’t thought of, as the A team hasn’t gone as planned they thought sod it run well in that race today, doesn’t matter if they blow their marks as they can replace the early season A team in the graded races later in the season. Makes you wonder if the A team would have worked out whether both would have run today, possibly not.

[ComplyOrDie]

But things have gone tits up and they've let the handbrake off the front 2 today, after probably lining them up for handicaps in the early part of the season.

Nearly ?12k more for winning the Thyestes than the Kim Muir, I don't think they'll be too bothered. Gordon still has other potentials lined up, as you noted in the handicap thread

Just possibly the handbrake was on previously with todays race in mind anyway.

[Nortons who]

Ok I am going to post this then retreat as far as I can (but don’t ban me as I love this place) I have just watched a novice chaser out jump out travel and outstay seasoned and senior handicappers on only his fifth chase start. For me an outstanding performance however reading many comments on various related threads it feels like some people would have been far happier if he had run at best averagely well and significantly below his capability in order to hide as much of his true ability away, presumably to protect their own investments.

While I totally understand this I cannot say it sits well with me when I think about how the entire outside world thinks of this amazing sport. If we believe this lack of transparency will continue to be tolerated when problem gambling is at the forefront of so many peoples minds we are deluded imo. If major and draconian changes are introduced that completely change the landscape of betting on horses for good then I cannot help thinking we as punters would have been somewhat complicit.

I have witnessed a performance that makes winning a handicap less likely than when I got up this morning but makes winning the NHC more likely. Hey that’s racing. Celebrate the fact that we have seen a horse try and win a race outside of the Cheltenham festival, you never know it might even catch on.

Rooster Booster

All good points and very well articulated. Yes, reading between the lines the betting industry is in for a major overhaul and horse racing will I'm sure come under significant scrutiny.

Without mentioning specific trainers and horses again within this thread, I believe many of us have seen quite a few examples already this season where horses appear to have been held back or only run on near the finish. In particular the Pertemps Qualifiers have been cited as races where backing a horse to win is possibly counter productive until the series Finale.

No ready made easy solutions but others have commented that the Stewards really need to take a harder line and I guess its similar for most industries, insofar as ultimately self regulation is far preferable to the alternatives.

[Quevega]

Nearly ?12k more for winning the Thyestes than the Kim Muir, I don't think they'll be too bothered. Gordon still has other potentials lined up, as you noted in the handicap thread

Just possibly the handbrake was on previously with todays race in mind anyway.

Absolutely, I agree with earlier posts about the obsession (with us lot) on the festival races.
But that's what we're here for after all.

[charlie]

NH Chase the plan for Coko Beach after grey makes a big splash in Thyestes

https://www.racingpost.com/news/race-reports/elliott-and-kennedy-team-up-to-upset-mullins-with-brave-coko-beach/470437

[ComplyOrDie]

NH Chase the plan for Coko Beach after grey makes a big splash in Thyestes

https://www.racingpost.com/news/race...o-beach/470437

Assuming amateurs are allowed to ride that will be one for Lisa O'Neil I'd imagine. If she can get him into a rhythm (like today) on the front end he could go very close.

Because of multiples Galvin would still be my preferred winner but on the singles Coko Beach returns slightly more.

[The Don]

This is going to,be the best race of the festival!

stable money well and truely down on Galvin and will run here to that should be put to bed!