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Sounds about right. I'd love to know if statisticians have analysed ratings earn't in the company of others within a similar ratings range, vs the rating RP has just been given, and then compared it to how those horses fair when pitted against one another in Grade 1's. It would be a really interesting piece of information to know because you could argue that earning a 160's rating vs horses of a similar calibre in a Grade 1 will stand a horse in significantly better stead to cope with the race conditions of future Grade 1's. For me, this is the crux of the RP dilemma.
Last edited by charlie; 25 January 2021, 03:58 PM.
Another dynamic to throw into the "Where will Royale Pagaille run at the Festival" debate, based on a story I've created below.
If RP was trained by Willie then we'd be fairly sure he wouldn't be going for the Gold Cup, right? WPM sends novices for novice races. Obviously RP is trained by Venetia, she will have significant input to the decision and to my eyes, appears "excited" at the prospect of running RP in the Gold Cup.
But let's say that Ricci will be talking to Willie over the next few days as progress and running plans are firmed up for Chacun, Min and others in advance of the DRF. While they are talking, Ricci might ask Willie "Where would you run with Royale Pagaille at Cheltenham?" He then gets the answer along the lines of "As you know, I don't like running novices in Championship races. You already probably have Monkfish for the Festival Chase (but we'll see how he gets on in the Flogas and whether you need to run RP in that race as first reserve if anything goes wrong with Monkfish). He's not fast enough for the Marsh and Envoi will probably win that anyway. So I would go for the 4 Miler, Patrick doesn't have a great ride in that this year so if Amateurs are back riding at the Festival, then I'm sure he would be happy to ride RP".
Then, although Ricci has a big ego and would surely love to win one or more Gold Cups, he has enormous respect for Willie and has in the past been happy for WPM to make the decisions on running plans for his horses. So he thinks about it, takes on board Willie's thoughts and when he has the conversion with Venetia, it goes in a different direction than she expected. The end result is that RP runs in the 4 Miler and if all goes to plan, Ricci has 2 shots at the Gold Cup next year. Fantasy?
Another dynamic to throw into the "Where will Royale Pagaille run at the Festival" debate, based on a story I've created below.
If RP was trained by Willie then we'd be fairly sure he wouldn't be going for the Gold Cup, right? WPM sends novices for novice races. Obviously RP is trained by Venetia, she will have significant input to the decision and to my eyes, appears "excited" at the prospect of running RP in the Gold Cup.
But let's say that Ricci will be talking to Willie over the next few days as progress and running plans are firmed up for Chacun, Min and others in advance of the DRF. While they are talking, Ricci might ask Willie "Where would you run with Royale Pagaille at Cheltenham?" He then gets the answer along the lines of "As you know, I don't like running novices in Championship races. You already probably have Monkfish for the Festival Chase (but we'll see how he gets on in the Flogas and whether you need to run RP in that race as first reserve if anything goes wrong with Monkfish). He's not fast enough for the Marsh and Envoi will probably win that anyway. So I would go for the 4 Miler, Patrick doesn't have a great ride in that this year so if Amateurs are back riding at the Festival, then I'm sure he would be happy to ride RP".
Then, although Ricci has a big ego and would surely love to win one or more Gold Cups, he has enormous respect for Willie and has in the past been happy for WPM to make the decisions on running plans for his horses. So he thinks about it, takes on board Willie's thoughts and when he has the conversion with Venetia, it goes in a different direction than she expected. The end result is that RP runs in the 4 Miler and if all goes to plan, Ricci has 2 shots at the Gold Cup next year. Fantasy?
And Scenario B.
RR to WM "We really screwed up with Vautour didn't we, what a PR mess up that was and he's probably the best horse we had that should have gone to the GC and didn't.
If we had our time again then it would have been the GC for Vautour, so Willie I'm not going to make the same mistake again. I wish ABP the very best of luck of course but hopefully RP will be a worthy challenger. How is Lord Royal coming along for the NHC by the way...."
RR to WM "We really screwed up with Vautour didn't we, what a PR mess up that was and he's probably the best horse we had that should have gone to the GC and didn't.
If we had our time again then it would have been the GC for Vautour, so Willie I'm not going to make the same mistake again. I wish ABP the very best of luck of course but hopefully RP will be a worthy challenger. How is Lord Royal coming along for the NHC by the way...."
And Scenario C
RR to WM "We really screwed up with Vautour didn't we"
WM to RR "We did, but Vautour and RP are apples and oranges. Vautour had competed at a vastly superior level and deserved his Gold Cup chance, whereas Royal Pagaille has run to the low 160's beating little of note - I think I have 5 in my yard with proper Grade 1 race experience that would beat it. Go NHC and reassess after that, he's only 7"
RR to WM "We really screwed up with Vautour didn't we"
WM to RR "We did, but Vautour and RP are apples and oranges. Vautour had competed at a vastly superior level and deserved his Gold Cup chance, whereas Royal Pagaille has run to the low 160's beating little of note - I think I have 5 in my yard with proper Grade 1 race experience that would beat it. Go NHC and reassess after that, he's only 7"
Anyone go for Scenario D?
Scenario D
WM to RR : Have you thought about the Ryannair for RP, you can afford to supplement him and between him and Min you'd have an outstanding chance of winning this one again, I know how much more you love it than the GC.
WM to RR : Have you thought about the Ryannair for RP, you can afford to supplement him and between him and Min you'd have an outstanding chance of winning this one again, I know how much more you love it than the GC.
Scenario E
RR to WM: 'The fucking Ryanair again!!!!! I'm pulling all my horses from Closutton and you no longer get Susannah on Friday night's. The fucking Ryanair"
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