2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Viking Flagship]

With likely 2 runs under his belt by post time wouldn’t that put you off him in a fairly large field, attritional race like this?
Not saying it can’t be done BUT 12/12 of the last winners had 3 chase starts

It certainly isn't a positive, but it's factored into the price for me. I'm confident that HDB would only send him here if he felt the horse was streetwise enough to deal with it. Certainly not one I would be backing without the NRNB concession - but if he did come here, I would fancy him.

[Viking Flagship]

You have to get imaginative for this one but another interesting entry here is Salty Boy - 100/1 with Hills. Only 33s NRNB which is crap.

If I'm honest I'm surprised to see the entry and I don't think for one second that he's about to win this race, but he is a horse to look out for in a marathon over the next month or two on a galloping track. He was completely unsuited by the 'demands' of Plumpton in the Sussex National where everything happened too quickly and they finished in a heap. I've got this one down as being quite nicely handicapped and expect him to pop up in an unfashionable slog somewhere at a decent price.

Sorry, probably a post more suited to the general NH thread really! I was just surprised to see his name and it reminded me that he's a must bet next time out. The entry here only adds to my theory that he's well handicapped.

[Rooster Booster]

With likely 2 runs under his belt by post time wouldn’t that put you off him in a fairly large field, attritional race like this?
Not saying it can’t be done BUT 12/12 of the last winners had 3 chase starts

I would strongly recommend anybody put off by stats with this horse to watch his Punchestown win if they haven’t already seen it. Each of the horses behind him that day were having at least their 3rd chase start under rules. Also seems to be be best making the running or close to the pace which may nullify field size concerns. I think he represents real value myself

[charlie]

Bloody hell, how did I miss that Eklat De Rire was 25/1 NRNB? I'll have me some of that. This horse made a lovely chase debut at Punchestown in December over 3m 1f+ seeing off a half decent field that included School Boy Hours, Larquebuse and Run Wild Fred (albeit RWF didn't run to form that day). He jumped superbly and HDBs comments after the race were that he was "a proper 3-miler and possibly beyond". There were a few fences missing that day which would have been a disadvantage since jumping would look to be one of his biggest assets (which is no surprise given the trainer) yet he still did it very nicely. De Bromhead is not a trainer you'd associate with this race so how likely this is as a destination I'm really not sure but pleased to see he's got the entry and you'd think a trainer of his standing might be able to land a decent pilot. The horse does lack the experience you usually associate with this race but the way he jumps I'm not sure I'd let that put me off. Interestingly his NRNB price for the RSA is actually lower than it is for this race! That's a strange one and I think 25s NRNB is excellent value. Either way though he looks to be a staying chaser going places and is one to keep an eye on.

I'm pretty impressed with Puncestown VF, in fact very. For a seasonal reappearance vs more experienced rivals over that type of trip, can't really ask for more can you? Jumped as well as anything I've seen quoted in the market and saw out every inch of that 3m2f having raced a little keen early on. A lot to like. As soon as he gets an entry I am going to add him. He's actually going to have to qualify the 'easy way' as most compete in a chase over 2m4f then step up to 3m to place top 4. He'll have to do it the other way around, so I imagine HDB might send him over 2m4f. If he got outpaced there that could make his price even more attractive. Will weigh up on next entry but had a nibble on the exchange for 0.5pts @ 32. Really good spot I think.

[Viking Flagship]

I'm pretty impressed with Puncestown VF, in fact very. For a seasonal reappearance vs more experienced rivals over that type of trip, can't really ask for more can you? Jumped as well as anything I've seen quoted in the market and saw out every inch of that 3m2f having raced a little keen early on. A lot to like. As soon as he gets an entry I am going to add him. He's actually going to have to qualify the 'easy way' as most compete in a chase over 2m4f then step up to 3m to place top 4. He'll have to do it the other way around, so I imagine HDB might send him over 2m4f. If he got outpaced there that could make his price even more attractive. Will weigh up on next entry but had a nibble on the exchange for 0.5pts @ 32. Really good spot I think.

Nice one Charlie. You’re a bit braver than me backing him without nrnb - I’ve been stung far too much already this year in the novice chases with the absence of Elixir D’Ainay, The Big Getaway and in this race with Ontheropes. I’m in cautious mode right now!

[jonthehammer]

Quevega you've backed Eklat De Rire haven't you?

Or am I getting confused the the juvenile that has a similar name?

Ive put him up ages ago Kev, i got Hills to add him the race he won and to win any race at 50s. But it was all last minute as i was stuck in work and couldnt get on here

[Eggs]

Ive put him up ages ago Kev, i got Hills to add him the race he won and to win any race at 50s. But it was all last minute as i was stuck in work and couldnt get on here

......aaaargh, that’s frustrating. Could’ve been sitting snuggly with that ticket.

[jonthehammer]

......aaaargh, that’s frustrating. Could’ve been sitting snuggly with that ticket.

I know mate, they literally priced it up 5 mins before the bloody race, i asked them in the morning as well. Bloody useless.

[Eggs]

I know mate, they literally priced it up 5 mins before the bloody race, i asked them in the morning as well. Bloody useless.

....looks like bits of blue for it on Oddschecker for RSA, possibly a more likely target.

[jonthehammer]

....looks like bits of blue for it on Oddschecker for RSA, possibly a more likely target.

He looked good on debut, i wanted to get him in some multiples but wasnt sure of the target. Cheers Eggs

[Spectre]

I raised him on here a few weeks ago, but his inexperience worries me for this now I think. You want something battle hardened. I think the RSA is also looking a tough ask for a horse that hasn't been tested properly at all.

De Bromhead had said he was aiming at something over Christmas, and then Naas in the new year, but he's still not been seen him, which is a worry when he needs experience after only four lifetime runs.

I've essentially been waiting for an entry before deciding what to do, but I think it's becoming too late for him to get the right kind of profile for either race.

[Istabraq]

I raised him on here a few weeks ago, but his inexperience worries me for this now I think. You want something battle hardened..

There used to be a strong trend with both this and the RSA where a minimum of three chase starts was crucial, I think something broke that trend a few years ago but nonetheless I think it should still be the starting point for us...

[Muswell]

Lord Royal declared at Navan

[Run4Home]

Lord Royal just needs a first 4 finish to qualify is it?

[Muswell]

Yep minimum of 2 chases, first four over 2mile 7