2021 Marsh Novices Chase

[Hardy Eustace]

I cannot have Shan Blue at all for this race at the prices. I completely understand why he is the price he is but at 16's in one place but generally 12-14/1 - I would be strongly against him.

All of its best form is on flat tracks and I really don't think Cheltenham will suit. If he was mine I would be waiting for Aintree he'd have a cracking chance in the Manifesto or the 3mile grade 1.

I accept there is limited evidence of him on proper galloping tracks but at 12/1 and against the most solid favourite of the week, I am not going to pay to find out.

[Quevega]

I cannot have Shan Blue at all for this race at the prices. I completely understand why he is the price he is but at 16's in one place but generally 12-14/1 - I would be strongly against him.

All of its best form is on flat tracks and I really don't think Cheltenham will suit. If he was mine I would be waiting for Aintree he'd have a cracking chance in the Manifesto or the 3mile grade 1.

I accept there is limited evidence of him on proper galloping tracks but at 12/1 and against the most solid favourite of the week, I am not going to pay to find out.

I agree, and with Protektorat in the team also.
I'm surprised they have pretty much committed Shan Blue already.

[Kevloaf]

Shan Blue reminds me of Ptit Zig

Where, he's good, but I just don't care about him taking on Vautour.

[EnvoyAllen]

Small thing but the odds aren't saying this - its an implied ratio of ~3% to ~50% so ~16 times

All I know is 1x33 is 33. Evens on your pound or 33 pounds on your pound.

For me, that’s good enough to realise there’s 33 more reasons a couple of bookmakers currently have as their prices stand, that Asterion Forlonge is very unlikely to be ahead of Envoi Allen at the finishing line.

[Craigy14]

It makes you wonder about Protektorat.
He's ran at Cheltenham 6 times in his career, and would have made it 7 with the dipper.
I hope they go RSA with him, as I got fancy prices.
And he doesn't mention him at all in his column even though he runs on saturday.
His breeding is not obvious 3m stayer, but there are plenty of saint des saints progeny that achieved high chase ratings over staying trips.

If they seem so set on Shan Blue for the Marsh.
Why would they not run Protektorat in the RSA ?
Surely the jockey would want to ride them both.
And why skip Cheltenham with Protektorat when he's spent half his life there.

I've seen the comments they've made by the way, but they both seem quite cautious with post race comments in general.
They've almost took the course that JackieMoon33 runs.

That’s where I’m at Q.

Very bizarre that they would skip Cheltenham with Protektorat considering he’s raced so much there!

Reading the above about a handicap, although possible is very very strange imo. He is also rated 2lbs higher than Shan Blue over fences having raced 1 less. If he doesn’t win the dipper by half the straight (a fall aside) then something is definitely up and Skelton should be up at the stewards office!

P.S unless post race vet finds something wrong.

[taylorch1990]

Apologies if this has already been mentioned but reading quotes from Paul Nicholls on Hitman and he says it's unlikely he'll run at Cheltenham this season.

[Hardy Eustace]

Apologies if this has already been mentioned but reading quotes from Paul Nicholls on Hitman and he says it's unlikely he'll run at Cheltenham this season.

Wonder if that will change if he bolts up in the Scilly Isles?

Bit silly really the owners should have run him at Wincanton on Saturday and Protektorat at Sandown, after Cheltenham was called off.

if he was to win could it encourage connections to step Protektorat up in trip?


I think I am going to back Protektorat for the marsh he has drifted to a fair enough price now but there’s just a little niggle in the back of my head that he’d be better over 3 miles (and he wouldn’t have EA to face)

[Cooldaddy]

Couldn't have Protektorat to win at Cheltenham, simply not good enough. Cant beat EA and there are a few who would eat it in the RSA. Only chance would be a blast from the front in the Arkle (as he is a good jumper) and hope Shishkin doesn't get round.

[Hardy Eustace]

Couldn't have Protektorat to win at Cheltenham, simply not good enough. Cant beat EA and there are a few who would eat it in the RSA. Only chance would be a blast from the front in the Arkle (as he is a good jumper) and hope Shishkin doesn't get round.

I agree beating EA could prove a bridge too far.

The race could have less than 8 runners if EA does make it there and 25/1 with 3 places I think will look quite attractive come the big day.

...and if EA does get injured 25/1 could look generous too.

There doesnt look to be that much strength and depth, IMO - Who would you have filling the places?

[Grand Canyon]

Envoi, Asterion and Andy all entered up at punchestown on Sunday.

[charlie]

Envoi, Asterion and Andy all entered up at punchestown on Sunday.

Think I will do a number of EW acca's including Asterion @ 33/1. I think EA will beat him (if they both line up), but I think AF will give him something to think about and something has to finish 2nd and 3rd. 33's seemed big.

[PaisleyClegg]

but I think AF will give him something to think about.

Yer, thinking about making sure he stays well out the way at every jump.

[FinalFurlong91]

Will envoi really run?

Will have a big penalty for his grade 1 novice win

the flogas maybe in a few weeks at leopardstown would spring to mind

[Run4Home]

Will envoi really run?

Will have a big penalty for his grade 1 novice win

the flogas maybe in a few weeks at leopardstown would spring to mind

Elliot quoted last weekend saying he does anyway

[Saxon Warrior]

Will envoi really run?

Will have a big penalty for his grade 1 novice win

the flogas maybe in a few weeks at leopardstown would spring to mind

Not sure just how much (have read 11lb) but Winter Escape won this race two years ago with a 7lb penalty for winning a Grade 3.

That means one of Gordon's other two entries, Andy Dufresne, would have to carry a 7lb penalty.

Chatham Street Lad won a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham, not sure if that means a 7lb penalty or not (given it was a handicap) but assume it does.