2021 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

[Kevloaf]

Yes, it had me checking it out, who calls Nicholls Nicky

Too much shortening of horse names on here....

Who needs to save that much time

COF/COF

[Atlantic Viking]

Not one for the front of the market, but Make Me A Believer doesn't go to Cheltenham according to David Pipe on the preview just now.

[charlie]

1pt EW on Streets Of Doyen @ 25/1

Under the radar and low profile. Raced over the summer, was then put away in October, then raced on the 28th Feb at Naas over an inadequate trip to blow away the cobwebs and get him right for Cheltenham.

The market is dominated by big name trainers and I can't help but feel if this lad were one of Gordons or Willies he would be far more popular, and probably campaigned differently to expose more of his ability (or lack of for all I know).

This race has been the trainers long term plan, and the step up to 3m has been the making of this horse. He is 4/4 over 3m on good ground, which includes winning over 3m back in October at Cheltenham.

He doesn't have the obvious class that some of the horses have towards the top of the market, but you don't always want class in this race, and he's definitely not a million miles away on ratings, and he's a real battler.

I actually think he's a par on ratings and a massive price. He was successful off 113 at Roscommon in September, before following up off 120 at Gowran. That day he beat now rated 160 Flooring Porter, albeit in receipt of a stone, but that's very good form and its not like they finished in a heap, they were going away from the field. He was raised to 130 for those efforts then won again at Cork 15 days later. He then went to Cheltenham and beat Polish 6L at Cheltenham giving away 3lbs - that horse is now rated 137 having won well at the weekend.

IMO Streets Of Doyen is a 140's horse, no question. He did all the above winning in less than 26 days. I think that's seriously impressive, and I can't think of many examples where that many runs over 3m is attempted, let alone 1111 achieved in that space of time while going up 25+lbs - happy to be proven wrong on that one.

Stattler and Fakiera are also low 140's horses, but significantly shorter, and I think the class of last years winners is skewering peoples perceptions of what's required to win this race (I don't mean on here, I mean generally in the market). For every 150's horse that wins this there is one rated 140, and I think this race looks fairly weak, and Streets Of Doyen looks fairly strong.

There are two things that stand in his favour: ground and cheltenham experience. He loves good ground and a lot of form going into the race is on soft/heavy. Now of course, some of those horses could improve, but they all certainly wouldn't, and it's a big plus for him if the forecast stays the same. Cheltenham experience is the second big plus.

He ticks lots of the stats boxes too:

13 of the last 15 were six or seven years of age and he's 7
8 of last 10 placed hurdle form over at least 2m 7f and he's 4/4 over 3m
Favourites have a terrible record in the race and he definitely won't be favourite
6/8 started hurdling over 2m which he did, he has more than 3 runs over hurdles which is good experience
7/16 were course winners which he is
Irish trained have won 5/7 races.

He will be an in play based bet too (Richard Johnson post Cheltenham):

I spoke to the trainer this morning who told me how tough and straightforward Streets Of Doyen was, but he added the horse can come off the bridle and it's the end of the race you'll find the best of him. Going out the final circuit, I wasn't travelling that well, but he kept responding when I got stuck into him and he did it well. He's very tough. The rain's getting in and it's getting hard work. I think connections are thinking about the Albert Bartlett, but he might have a winter holiday now

[Kevloaf]

The prep run was shite though?

I had him 2 pts e/w at 40/1, and cashed 1 pt e/w in....

I wouldn't back him at 40s with a free bet. Complete waste.


I'll leave 1pt e/w because of the trainers record.... but he's a poor bet ante post at 25/1

I'd be amazed if you can't get that before SP (with enhanced terms or BOG etc)

[charlie]

The prep run was shite though?

I had him 2 pts e/w at 40/1, and cashed 1 pt e/w in....

I wouldn't back him at 40s with a free bet. Complete waste.

I'll leave 1pt e/w because of the trainers record.... but he's a poor bet ante post at 25/1

I'd be amazed if you can't get that before SP (with enhanced terms or BOG etc)

The prep run wouldn't enter my mind as he's not a 2 miler and it was his first run after a 127 day break on ground softer than ideal, so it's an easy run to ignore IMO.

Time will tell, I certainly don't think it's a poor ante post bet, and I expect his price to contract in the next 7 days.

It hasn't yet because the AB doesn't get anywhere near the amount of attention the other two novice hurdles get - the number of pages on this thread vs the other two tell us that. People think about it late, it's not a big ante post betting race, and a lot of the money will go down in the days before. Very fair to say Kev he could be the same price in 7 days as he is now, but he could very easily be shorter.

The case for him is IMO quite strong and very disguised. I can't see a horse that's won over 3m at Cheltenham, beaten Flooring Porter and most likely gets his ground being pushed in price. If anything, I can see him being nibbled into 20 or 16, and if Flooring Porter and The Bosses Oscar both run well a week tomorrow, then that will almost certainly see his price contract.

[Kevloaf]

The prep run wouldn't enter my mind as he's not a 2 miler and it was his first run after a 127 day break on ground softer than ideal, so it's an easy run to ignore IMO.

Time will tell, I certainly don't think it's a poor ante post bet, and I expect his price to contract in the next 7 days.

It hasn't yet because the AB doesn't get anywhere near the amount of attention the other two novice hurdles get - the number of pages on this thread vs the other two tell us that. People think about it late, it's not a big ante post betting race, and a lot of the money will go down in the days before. Very fair to say Kev he could be the same price in 7 days as he is now, but he could very easily be shorter.

The case for him is IMO quite strong and very disguised. I can't see a horse that's won over 3m at Cheltenham, beaten Flooring Porter and most likely gets his ground being pushed in price. If anything, I can see him being nibbled into 20 or 16, and if Flooring Porter and The Bosses Oscar both run well a week tomorrow, then that will almost certainly see his price contract.

I definitely would back him at 40s now with a free bet, that was just nonsense

I was just hoping to see more from his prep run and he was my biggest winner, which didn't sit right.

[Quevega]

I cashed the 40-1 also.
Fully expecting it would be available nearer the day.
Could be wrong, but I could live with that.
There are several ahead of him in the market for people to focus on, so would be surprised if he is gambled on.

[charlie]

I definitely would back him at 40s now with a free bet, that was just nonsense

I was just hoping to see more from his prep run and he was my biggest winner, which didn't sit right.

You'll notice I side stepped that one

He was taken care of on that prep run. It was a 'you've been off for months, have a spin, blow the dust away, come home etc'

Not only could a few of the 11 ahead of him in the market come out, a number of them have never been over 3m which I really don't like with a view to this.

[Silverbirch]

Pat's fancy anyone? 50/1
Hes got something about him to be fair.

[Kevloaf]

You'll notice I side stepped that one

He was taken care of on that prep run. It was a 'you've been off for months, have a spin, blow the dust away, come home etc'

Not only could a few of the 11 ahead of him in the market come out, a number of them have never been over 3m which I really don't like with a view to this.

side stepped and left me looking Boateng when Messi left him on the floor.


I think my own bet / price has clouded my assessment.... I also missed IMO off saying he was a poor ante post bet at 25s, which gives that a bit more context haha

[Garrison Savannah]

I’m with you Charlie (probably pocket talking!), have been on him for months. I like the way he’s been campaigned. No fucking about in heavy ground, take the money on offer early, then put away for this race. A pipe opener over 2m is exactly that, a pipe opener - he was never going to impress in that race.

That said, I’m not sure he has the quality to win, but as you say, I’m not sure this year’s renewal is at the strength of last years so maybe he doesn’t need to be Monkfish quality.

The fact he’s with largely unknown (to the masses) trainer should keep his price held I should think.

[Quevega]

Don’t forget this race is an afterthought for streets as his first choice got injured. They were going to get him qualified for the pertemps originally I think.
which is also a positive of sorts.

[Lbur4288]

For me, this is a race I find extremely difficult to find a horse and back it with absolute belief that it has a chance. With my method of building a book, I cover the race anyway but I don't tend to have much riding on it.

In this race I have backed Vanillier at 33s. I've done this on the basis that, albeit over a shorter trip, he's already beaten (and been beaten by) Stattler who is 5/1f. I think its a huge difference in price and with a line through his last run I think its too big a gap in terms of the price. The tactics used in the last race saw Vanillier sat out the back of the field and never really put into the race. Previously, he's been ridding close to the pace. Even in his last race he started to stay on towards the finish admittedly when it was far too late. The longer trip will suit IMO.

It's a long shot I know but for a race I am struggling with this is one of the better cases I can put forward. Not the only horse I have backed here but not huge stakes either so I feel its worth chancing at the price. I like Gavin Cromwell as a trainer and I feel he wouldn't waste an entry just for the sake of having a runner at the festival.

Let's see how this post looks next week lol.

[charlie]

I’m with you Charlie (probably pocket talking!), have been on him for months. I like the way he’s been campaigned. No fucking about in heavy ground, take the money on offer early, then put away for this race. A pipe opener over 2m is exactly that, a pipe opener - he was never going to impress in that race.

That said, I'm not sure he has the quality to win, but as you say, I’m not sure this year’s renewal is at the strength of last years so maybe he doesn’t need to be Monkfish quality.

The fact he’s with largely unknown (to the masses) trainer should keep his price held I should think.

Yeh he would be a question mark, but I personally don't think many ahead of him in the market would beat now 160 rated Flooring Porter over 3m in receipt of a stone. I just don't think they would, and its not like that's the singular piece of form to hang your hat on cause he backed up at Cheltenham no less with another very good performance. I really like him, and when you start to apply scrutiny to a lot of those ahead of him in the market, I think one or two wont go, quite a few are untested over 3m and none of them barring Duffle Coat (who I thought was out) have ever been to Cheltenham. The Irish dominate the market and have raced pretty much exclusively on soft or heavy. Spring ground will undoubtedly disadvantage some of them, but it wont this fella. Am going to try and get extra places on the day and have a fairly big EW bet.

[Geordieboy83]

Has it been confirmed if torygraph comes here? What’s people’s thoughts?