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I know form lines would have Stattler slightly ahead but races in the book he's done more than him (and I'm a big Stattler fan). Fakiera has at least won a G3, placed in a G2 and obviously finished behind Stattler (only 2 lengths) on their last start behind Gaillard Du Mesnil (G1).
I know you like GDM for the Ballymore quite a bit so surely they must be up there with some of the strongest form lines?
Yeah I suppose it's a strong form line however it's not like he nearly won? A bit flattered by the way the race was won..... I just think single figures is really tight.... I'd back Stattler at 7/1 over Fakiera at 8/1 every single time.
With Fakiera 2nd fav at 8/1, I'd be looking elsewhere for an each way bet too....
So he's been that price for a while, since the DRF I assume?
As I said, it seems a mental short price to me.... and as it's that price right now, it's relevant to mention... I haven't missed a big conversation debating his merits at 8/1 have I? If I have I apologise and I'll go back and read them.... if I haven't missed it, don't know what your point is?
Kev, take a look at the DRF video, take out the winner and there is only one horse hitting the line.
I quite like the form lines and backed the each way double a while back..i do think its got solid chances, but at 2m 4f everyone was sayin fakiera needs a step up in trip hes always staying on...well he got the step up at the DRF and also in soft ground and he plugged on as usual but i dont think hes ever truly up there..like folsom blue! Always chuggin at the end but never involved
Very odd market this, seems to be formed as much on ‘hype’/people’s interpretations of form, rather than any outright performances. Stattler was ~20s after winning his maiden, then tipped up & backed into ~12s, backed to 10s after DRF and is now 7s.
Fakiera did receive a fair clip for his DRF performance to be fair but 8/1 seems like another price that’s really crept up on anyway.
farouk D’Alene last seen at Christmas when 25s was available post-victory and is now 14s. Same story with torygraph 25s readily available after his maiden hurdle win & now 14s.
I know there are other things to consider like NRNB being introduced with most firms, and im a backer of 3 of the 4 mentioned above at much bigger prices so I should be happy but can’t help feeling they're only the price they are because of the absence of a horse with a proper, solid looking shot at this. It may just be that there isn’t one, but it may be lurking in there somewhere not to come out until the day at huge odds.
Yeah I suppose it's a strong form line however it's not like he nearly won? A bit flattered by the way the race was won..... I just think single figures is really tight.... I'd back Stattler at 7/1 over Fakiera at 8/1 every single time.
With Fakiera 2nd fav at 8/1, I'd be looking elsewhere for an each way bet too....
Oh, so would I, but there are only two lengths between them on the best form they both have (as it was a G1), so I can see why they are priced the way they are.
Kev, take a look at the DRF video, take out the winner and there is only one horse hitting the line.
Is that worthy of single figure price for an Albert Bartlett though?
It looked a strong race beforehand, but was it?
I think at single figures we can question it ....
As I said, I'm on at 33/1, so I don't need to question it.... I was just surprised at the price....I think it's an over reaction to that run personally.
This has all the markings of a sub standard AB which you get from time to time and these turnouts can be won by out and out stayers.
Fakiera will always be outpaced when the taps are turned on but it stays forever, I hope it gets into a protracted battle by 2-3 contenders 4f out and Fak starts picking them as they falter......so the dream goes.
This has all the markings of a sub standard AB which you get from time to time and these turnouts can be won by out and out stayers.
Fakiera will always be outpaced when the taps are turned on but it stays forever, I hope it gets into a protracted battle by 2-3 contenders 4f out and Fak starts picking them as they falter......so the dream goes.
If you hadn't had a bet so far, would you back Fakiera at 8/1 before anything else in the market?
That is effectively the point I'm making. I know 100% I wouldn't...... Stattler at 7/1 is more appealing for starters.
If you hadn't had a bet so far, would you back Fakiera at 8/1 before anything else in the market?
That is effectively the point I'm making. I know 100% I wouldn't...... Stattler at 7/1 is more appealing for starters.
No, I would not back at 8s but by the same token I would not be opposing him, I honestly believe he would have sailed past Stattler in another 100yrds, in all honesty Stattler is one horse I would not fear.
Various options – probably Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
I don’t know what to do with N’Golo. I’d love to get some good ground and you can probably get good ground on the last day. We’ve entered him in handicaps this morning alongside every novice and he probably wants a bit of a trip in good ground. He has the profile of having enough runs under his belt – things might be happening a little slower for there too which might help him as he’s had a couple of bad runs, so we’ll see.
No, I would not back at 8s but by the same token I would not be opposing him, I honestly believe he would have sailed past Stattler in another 100yrds, in all honesty Stattler is one horse I would not fear.
I think if the race had been over 3m though, and without GDM being in the race, Stattler would have run a little differently...so taking it literally that Fakiera "would have" passed him is true but doesn't mean would be replicated?
Stattler still finished ahead of him... and it's not bananas to think ridden differently he could put in a better performance.
I'd had Stattler 7/1 a much better bet than Fakiera at 8/1 .....but neither have me excited at all.
Fortunately I'm on both at much bigger - but still....
Various options – probably Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
I don’t know what to do with N’Golo. I’d love to get some good ground and you can probably get good ground on the last day. We’ve entered him in handicaps this morning alongside every novice and he probably wants a bit of a trip in good ground. He has the profile of having enough runs under his belt – things might be happening a little slower for there too which might help him as he’s had a couple of bad runs, so we’ll see.
Fakiera has a great profile for this and the race should suit him well but the price has gone.
I'm convinced Torygraph is Gordie's best bet and there's still a bit of traction left in his price if you don't have him onside. Surprised he's not a similar price to Fakiera.
Fakiera has a great profile for this and the race should suit him well but the price has gone.
I'm convinced Torygraph is Gordie's best bet and there's still a bit of traction left in his price if you don't have him onside. Surprised he's not a similar price to Fakiera.
Fakiera 33/1
Torygraph 40/1 50/1 14/1
All in the diary.....
Would definitely back Torygraph at 14s now over Fakiera at 8s though, completely agree.
Would definitely back Torygraph at 14s now over Fakiera at 8s though, completely agree.
Haha - love it........Kev you have absolutely nothing to worry about.
Apart from which way round you'll do the dual forecast!!!!
I'm on board both of them too (Torygraph very much thanks to Saxon).
I thought Torygraph was a bit of a plodder but his last run was so impressive imo - I'm more excited about his chances than virtually anything else I've backed all week.
Haha - love it........Kev you have absolutely nothing to worry about.
Apart from which way round you'll do the dual forecast!!!!
I'm on board both of them too (Torygraph very much thanks to Saxon).
I thought Torygraph was a bit of a plodder but his last run was so impressive imo - I'm more excited about his chances than virtually anything else I've backed all week.
You may wonder why I'd bother discussing an 8/1 shot when I'm on at 33/1, but I'm obsessed
Yeh, wasn';t on my radar at all until SW mentioned him!
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