2021 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

[Saxon Warrior]

I think he's value because other than stattler, looks a very weak year for this race. No one has really staked a claim yet. Looks very open to me.

Agreed Silver Birch,

A lot of the top of the market have been removed from the betting today, presumably because they aren’t entered for the race now, which leaves a big gap at the top of the market, for us to quickly look at today to see if there is value in the market, before the bookies press down on a few more prices as they did with Holymacapony today.

25/1 still looks big to me, for Torygraph,

Im checking the rest of the market now, to see if there are any other price edges in the market - now we know the Bartlett entries,

[Pendil]

Duffle Coat entered here, very odd

[Quevega]

Agreed Silver Birch,

A lot of the top of the market have been removed from the betting today, presumably because they aren’t entered for the race now, which leaves a big gap at the top of the market, for us to quickly look at today to see if there is value in the market, before the bookies press down on a few more prices as they did with Holymacapony today.

25/1 still looks big to me, for Torygraph,

Im checking the rest of the market now, to see if there are any other price edges in the market - now we know the Bartlett entries,

I do agree that the market for this race looks wide open and we may well have a clear favourite after Dublin.

Torygraph could be a player.

I just think the comparison with Monkfish is a bit tenuous. ( not just a bit really, very )

It's not the same trainer for a start, although Monkfish did come into the reckoning with a win in this same race. He only really started appearing near the top of the betting in late February, after Run Wild Fred franked his form further by beating Lord Royal. I think his mark may also have been reassessed.

In any case he ended up running at Cheltenham off a mark of 152, having not ran in a graded race.

But the race he won compared to today's race, had far more depth to it (previous placed form in graded races, horses with ratings in mid 130's) and he won by 20 lengths, in style. In a decent time

Today's race was about as bad a novice hurdle as you could get.

Torygraph beat dogshit and mushrooms.

A mare who had been beaten in 7 bumpers who actually chased him home.
An auction maiden hurdle winner, who got weight and beat a 109 rated horse.
And Fighter Allen who was Pulled up in graded company the last day and who won a maiden by 3/4L that has not produced any winners ( from 12 attempts).

As I've said, the horse is not without a shout, but he is unlikely to get an Irish rating much more than high 130's, and Gordon may want him to run again in a graded race before deciding to go to Cheltenham, or may think he is on a decent mark for a handicap.

Run Wild Fred fell in this race last year (with a conditional jockey on board) and may well have been lining up for a handicap, but then had to run again in Mid Feb in a grade 3 at Punchestown, then they decided to skip the festival altogether. Not sure why.

It'll all come out in the wash.
But based on form alone, this horse should be priced 25-1 or bigger really.
But so should many others I suppose.

[FinalFurlong91]

"I just think the comparison with Monkfish is a bit tenuous. ( not just a bit really, very )"

Id be inclined to agree with this

It looked a pretty weak race to me

[jack1092]

"I just think the comparison with Monkfish is a bit tenuous. ( not just a bit really, very )"

Id be inclined to agree with this

It looked a pretty weak race to me

It ended up being weak race, but if you are backing Torygraph you aren't just backing him based on the "form" of today....

He won comfortably and again shaped like a "boat like" article just perfect for an AB in my view.

[Energumene]

Have to agree with Quevega, Monkfish was far from a typical Bartlett winner prep so winning the same races as him doesnt look significant, id be surprised if Torygraph was good enough to even place at Cheltenham, can see why hes still a longshot in the betting.

If Ashdale Bob hadnt fallen i imagine he would be the clear fav for this off the back of a 2nd to Bob Olinger in a G1. Hopefully he gets back on track in the 2m6 race where he might bump into another legit Ballymore horse.

[Quevega]

Have to agree with Quevega, Monkfish was far from a typical Bartlett winner prep so winning the same races as him doesnt look significant, id be surprised if Torygraph was good enough to even place at Cheltenham, can see why hes still a longshot in the betting.

If Ashdale Bob hadnt fallen i imagine he would be the clear fav for this off the back of a 2nd to Bob Olinger in a G1. Hopefully he gets back on track in the 2m6 race where he might bump into another legit Ballymore horse.

Ashdale Bob's win the time before is probably the best piece of form on both sides of the sea, with regards this race.

Although Ashdale Bob may well go for the Ballymore himself.

Depending on the ground.
And of course how Dublin pans out for him and others.

[FinalFurlong91]

Let's just hope the ground at leopardstown is soft enough that we can actually see these races

[Quevega]

Let's just hope the ground at leopardstown is soft enough that we can actually see these races

They must have had plenty recently surely.
Naas and then Navan both been abandoned.

[Saxon Warrior]

I do agree that the market for this race looks wide open and we may well have a clear favourite after Dublin.

Torygraph could be a player.

I just think the comparison with Monkfish is a bit tenuous. ( not just a bit really, very )

I am not saying Torygraph is comparable now with Monkfish, only that his race programme has been the same for the last two races (Monkfish's last two races pre-Cheltenham last season).

As a ratings comparison
Going into yesterdays race he had the same RPR for the same race as Monkfish last time out.

Monkfish put up a wide margin win in last seasons race and increased his RPR from 143 to 154, and Torygraph didnt need to hit his prior rating (RPR 143) to win readily yesterday.

So on RPRs, Torygraph now has around 11lbs to find on Monkfish, post race, rather than the neck-and-neck ratings they had going into yesterdays race.

Monkfish didnt improve his RPR at Cheltenham to win the race.


Its race planning that is the same, which could point to the Albert Bartlett for Torygraph, the jockey certainly thinks he has improved for stepping out in trip.

These are the angles I am looking for in the Irish Race Planning Diary that allows us to assess which races horses running (mostly) in Beginners, Maidens and Novices could be heading.

So the forum people who are interested in Race Planning can decide if the horse is worth a bet, hopefully at big odds, in specific Festival races before or after the highlighted Key Race is run.

Torygraph currently needs to improve around 10lbs-12lbs to be winning an Albert Bartlett, or 5lbs to be placed, based on previous RPRs in recent seasons.

[Rooster Booster]

Positive news for backers of Ashdale Bob for this. Trainer has confirmed intent to run in the 2m 6 race at the DRF and said ‘absolutely perfect after the fall’. And described him as a ‘stayer’. Still 25s with b365 for anyone interested and with an account.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Positive news for backers of Ashdale Bob for this. Trainer has confirmed intent to run in the 2m 6 race at the DRF and said ‘absolutely perfect after the fall’. And described him as a ‘stayer’. Still 25s with b365 for anyone interested and with an account.

Thanks RB, good to know.........nice price that i think.

[FinalFurlong91]

Don't think we've seen anything decent at doncaster

They went too quick early on and the race completely fell apart

I strongly fancied Bobhopeornohope but he was very keen the entire way round so wasn't surprised that he found nothing and was pulled up

[SeanRock]

Farouk cut from 25’s into 16’s with previous best value B365, if he proves his tendency to jump right at Navan was a direct result of the crawl pace he could really emphasise is AB credentials at Leopardstown next weekend!

My biggest single winner of the week so here’s hoping.

[FinalFurlong91]

Stattlers form has taken a bit of a knock there