2021 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

[JackieMoon33]

Damn it, I was feeling quite smug with my detective work then

To be fair, Fagan was not really that well fancied so this year is likely to be one of his better chances of winning his own race.

[Spectre]

The possibility is he has a 'quieter' race next time and he ends up in something like the Coral Cup ridiculously well in. This is Emmet Mullins we're talking about, who makes Gordon look like a saint!!!

[Topofthegame2021]

The possibility is he has a 'quieter' race next time and he ends up in something like the Coral Cup ridiculously well in. This is Emmet Mullins we're talking about, who makes Gordon look like a saint!!!

Sorry Spectre, who are you referring to here?

[ComplyOrDie]

Sorry Spectre, who are you referring to here?

Cape Gentleman I'd imagine

[Topofthegame2021]

Cape Gentleman I'd imagine

Ahhhhh yes sorry. Cheers CoD. Been a hectic day and haven’t been on here much today. Really hoping he’s Ballymore personally but looking at the market I don’t think it’s likely

[jonthehammer]

Paddy Kennedy name checked the Albert bartlett for crosshill on an interview with champ.ie

[ComplyOrDie]

Paddy Kennedy name checked the Albert bartlett for crosshill on an interview with champ.ie

It surprises me that. Looked very good over 2m4f and the same stable having another that looks a more dour stayer, IMO of course.

Can understand why they might go Bartlett, given the owner, being the sponsor of the race, but thought Crosshill would have a great chance in something like the Martin Pipe, as he already has Stattler for his sponsored race.

[robith]

This race just looks an absolute minefield.

I personally am more than happy to leave it be antepost until something comes out of the woodwork (most likely at the Dublin festival).

I think I’d struggle naming five likely runners here as of right now in all honestly.

Over the last ten years the average price of the winner of this race is over 17/1, and that includes 2 very short priced ones going in.

While I've backed a couple antepost, you can do a lot worse for this race than wait for the day and throw darts at big prices on either absolute warriors or statistical oddities

[Kevloaf]

Over the last ten years the average price of the winner of this race is over 17/1, and that includes 2 very short priced ones going in.

While I've backed a couple antepost, you can do a lot worse for this race than wait for the day and throw darts at big prices on either absolute warriors or statistical oddities

I often forget there is value in the day of race markets.

As we all focus on ante post every day, I feel I lose sight of that.... I feel I have to have everything boxed off by the Sunday night before.

[Quevega]

Last years was the exact opposite though.
Some even got the quadcast up - unbelievably bad bet, but paid off.

[Big Bucks]

Paddy Kennedy name checked the Albert bartlett for crosshill on an interview with champ.ie

Was that recently?

[Kevloaf]

Last years was the exact opposite though.
Some even got the quadcast up - unbelievably bad bet, but paid off.

Haha, one of the most fun bets of all time.

150/1 - Any order?

There does become a point where at certain odds, because a few quid would pay enough, that the value aspect becomes less important? (Just generally speaking).....

Like if something was 1000/1, I'm more likely to have 2 quid on that even if it's a 5000/1 shot than I am having 2 quid on at EVENS on an EVEN money shot.

[Quevega]

Haha, one of the most fun bets of all time.

150/1 - Any order?

There does become a point where at certain odds, because a few quid would pay enough, that the value aspect becomes less important? (Just generally speaking).....

Like if something was 1000/1, I'm more likely to have 2 quid on that even if it's a 5000/1 shot than I am having 2 quid on at EVENS on an EVEN money shot.

Totally agree, was only having a laugh.
definitely not a value bet, but in the midst of the festival and at 150-1 - Why not ?

[jonthehammer]

Was that recently?

Yup, was interviewed in last couple of days, it is on youtube under Champ.ie.

https://youtu.be/gqZGPggA68c

[charlie]

Not a hugely strong fancy, but Wild Romance @ 40/1 looks interesting for this.
Traded at 560 in-running before getting up late under Bridget Andrews in the 2m3?f mares' novice hurdle at Chepstow. Traded at 200's in-running before coming from space in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle trial at Cheltenham in behind Does He Know. On paper Wild Romance stinks of stamina and that's exactly what you see when you watch her. She's doing all her best work at the end of her races and I love how Harry rode her at Cheltenham. Going up significantly in grade he knew exactly what was underneath him, and barring a couple of slaps down the neck, he lets them kick on down the hill confidently knowing she will fly up it, which she did. I loved that ride and it was the sort of performance you miss when weighing up who to back for the AB, then post race look back and watch the above and think 'it was obvious going up in trip will help'. She's far from a stand out contender rated 129 and I haven't backed her yet, but 10lbs over improvement over 3m wouldn't shock me one bit, and with a 7lbs mares allowance and a team having a massive season, she could make a very interesting left-field contender.

Kevloaf Related to the above, I was thinking nearer the Fez of doing an 'In Play Strategy' thread based on the example above. Thought process being we'll all be at home and betting in play at Cheltenham has always (at least for me) been impossible. I think a thread like that is best off in the members only section where lurkers can't view strategies/in play plans etc. Would you agree?